Wilson’s Libs likely to end Labor’s rule

Victoria’s next state election is shaping up to be a major test for Labor, with new polling suggesting Opposition Leader Jess Wilson could lead the Coalition to victory and end more than a decade of Labor government.

The Newspoll, conducted by Pyxis Polling & Insights, puts the Coalition ahead of Labor by 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two party preferred basis. The result represents a 10 point swing against Labor since the previous election, signalling a significant shift in voter sentiment.

If the figures translate into votes at the election, the Liberal Nationals Coalition could secure a majority government without relying on One Nation, placing Wilson in a strong position to become Victoria’s next premier.

Labor struggles to regain voter confidence

The poll points to mounting pressure on Labor, with its primary vote falling four points to 24 per cent. The Coalition has risen three points to 33 per cent, while One Nation has reached 20 per cent and the Greens sit at 14 per cent.

The figures suggest Labor’s efforts under Premier Ben Carroll to rebuild support have yet to deliver a broader recovery in the party’s electoral standing.

Former premier Daniel Andrews also remains a potential liability for Labor.

The survey found that 60 per cent of Victorians view Andrews unfavourably since his departure from office, highlighting the lasting political impact of his leadership.

Labor governed Victoria through the COVID 19 pandemic, including extended lockdowns, while rising state debt and ongoing economic pressures have become central issues in the debate over the state’s future.

Carroll has sought to frame the election as a choice between Labor and a Liberal One Nation alliance, arguing that such an arrangement would harm working people.

However, the polling suggests voters may be increasingly willing to consider a change of government.

Wilson strengthens her position as preferred premier

Wilson’s personal standing provides another boost for the Coalition. She leads Carroll as preferred premier by 48 per cent to 34 per cent, while her satisfaction rating has climbed to 49 per cent. Carroll’s satisfaction rating stands at 30 per cent.

The results indicate Wilson has an opportunity to position the Coalition as an alternative government, although turning polling support into an election victory will depend on individual contests and the campaign ahead.

The survey also points to differences in voter preferences across the state.

A Coalition majority government is more favoured in Melbourne, while voters outside the metropolitan area show greater support for a Coalition arrangement involving One Nation.

The poll found that 30 per cent of women preferred a government involving the Liberal Nationals and One Nation, suggesting the proposed combination has some appeal beyond its traditional voter base.

One Nation’s rise adds another dimension

One Nation’s 20 per cent primary vote is a significant factor in the emerging electoral picture, potentially reshaping contests across Victoria and increasing pressure on both major parties.

Despite that support, the Coalition could have enough seats to govern in its own right if the current polling holds.

The projections suggest it could win more than 60 seats, including over 30 seats currently held by Labor, although seat level outcomes remain uncertain.

Wilson has also faced questions over controversy involving a Liberal candidate who promoted voting for One Nation.

She has defended her team’s integrity as the Coalition navigates the political implications of the minor party’s growing support.

The poll surveyed 1,017 Victorian voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

While the results offer a snapshot rather than a prediction of the final outcome, they point to a challenging election ahead for Labor, with the Coalition emerging as a serious contender to take government.