Super El Niño to cause heat deaths globally

In Short:
– The “super” El Niño is expected to cause hundreds of heat-related deaths in Australia and globally.
– NSW predicts 120 deaths, with significant fatalities anticipated across other Australian states and countries worldwide.

The “super” El Niño is forecasted to lead to hundreds of heat-related deaths in Australia and significantly more globally.Scientists from the Climate Impact Lab predict 260 additional deaths in Australia from this month to February, with New South Wales projected to experience the highest toll.

Heat death forecast

NSW is expected to see 120 deaths, followed by Western Australia with 72, Queensland with 61, Victoria with 13, and South Australia with 12.

The report describes the current temperatures as akin to those projected for 20 years from now due to climate change, predicting 44% more extremely hot days than in normal years.

According to the authors, regions with greater wealth tend to cope better with heat, resulting in higher mortality rates in poorer areas.

Globally, an estimated 451,000 additional deaths are anticipated in the first nine months of the event, significantly more than casualties from recent natural disasters.

The worst hit areas are expected to be in the Sahel region of Africa, with Nigeria alone forecast to have 31,400 deaths during this period.

Other countries predicted to experience high fatalities include Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil.

Under these extreme conditions, Australia may face increased risks of bushfires, complicating the climate landscape further.

The report urges action to mitigate heat-related deaths, recommending heat alerts, health outreach, and the establishment of cooling centres.

Greenstone emphasises the need for immediate emergency actions to potentially save tens of thousands of lives in the coming months.

Global impact analysis

Decision makers are called to understand where investments in adaptation can have the most significant effect on mortality rates.

The report’s predictions focus on heat deaths in relation to the average for the corresponding months over the past 20 years.