Bitcoin rebounds but analysts warn the crypto bear market may not be over

In Short:
– Bitcoin’s circulating supply in profit rose to 57.5% by July 22, up from 46.2% in June.
– Analysts warn current recovery lacks confirmation of a bear market exit and requires further improvements.

Bitcoin holders are experiencing a shift in fortune as the percentage of circulating supply in profit has risen to 57.5% as of July 22, up from a low of 46.2% at the end of June.On-chain analysts caution that this rebound is insufficient to confirm a bear market exit, with echoes of previous failed breakouts.

Bitcoin market analysis

The proportion of BTC whose market price exceeds previous movement costs has aligned with a broader price recovery, with Bitcoin approaching $65,859 on the morning of July 22.

This trend follows a similar pattern observed between April and June when the LTH-SOPR metric exceeded 1.0 for 35 consecutive days, though the market subsequently declined.

The required conditions to confirm an end to a bear market include Bitcoin’s supply in profit stabilising above 64% and the LTH-SOPR remaining above 1.0 for an extended period.

Currently, neither condition is met, as the 30-day LTH-SOPR average has been below 1.0 for over 50 days, leading long-term holders to incur losses on average.

In June, this ratio had dipped below 0.73, nearing its yearly lows.

Despite the mixed signals, CryptoQuant’s 365-day PnL Index suggests there could be peaks ahead, with predictions indicating the bear market might conclude in the latter half of 2026.

For now, despite rising profitability metrics, the market remains in uncertainty, showing signs of improvement but lacking confirmation.

Market uncertainty persists

Traders and investors remain cautious as conditions do not yet favour a definitive shift from bear to bull market trends.

The ongoing analysis and historical benchmarks signal a need for patience among Bitcoin participants.