Bitcoin profit supply rises to 57.5% but analysts caution against confirming bear market exit as conditions remain unmet
Bitcoin market analysis
The proportion of BTC whose market price exceeds previous movement costs has aligned with a broader price recovery, with Bitcoin approaching $65,859 on the morning of July 22.
This trend follows a similar pattern observed between April and June when the LTH-SOPR metric exceeded 1.0 for 35 consecutive days, though the market subsequently declined.
The required conditions to confirm an end to a bear market include Bitcoin’s supply in profit stabilising above 64% and the LTH-SOPR remaining above 1.0 for an extended period.
Currently, neither condition is met, as the 30-day LTH-SOPR average has been below 1.0 for over 50 days, leading long-term holders to incur losses on average.
In June, this ratio had dipped below 0.73, nearing its yearly lows.
Despite the mixed signals, CryptoQuant’s 365-day PnL Index suggests there could be peaks ahead, with predictions indicating the bear market might conclude in the latter half of 2026.
For now, despite rising profitability metrics, the market remains in uncertainty, showing signs of improvement but lacking confirmation.
Market uncertainty persists
Traders and investors remain cautious as conditions do not yet favour a definitive shift from bear to bull market trends.
The ongoing analysis and historical benchmarks signal a need for patience among Bitcoin participants.
