Is Australia heading for its first major recession in over 30 years?

Published

3 years ago

July 4, 2023

The path to a soft landing is a narrow one, or so the RBA keeps telling us. But what are the actual risks facing the economy?

Prices in Australia have begun falling for consumers in a few key areas according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI).

May’s CPI showed inflation fell to 5 and a half per cent for the month – down from 6.8 per cent a month earlier.

The Reserve Bank has been raising interest rates to try and bring that figure down even further.

Aside from a brief pause to this campaign in April, the country’s cash rate is at its highest point since 2012 – at 4.1 percent.

And the Bank’s Governor Philip Lowe is under the pump for that decision acknowledging that high interest rates do cause economic hardship for people in their own right.

However, he says the pain of stubborn inflation can sting even worse for everyday people, and the RBA could be set to raise the cash rate even further on Tuesday.

But many economists argue this strategy also raises the risks of bringing Australia into its first recession since 1990.

That record may be the envy of the world, but it could soon be broken.

The Commonwealth Bank is the only one of Australia’s Big Four banks to believe that the RBA will not raise interest rates on Tuesday.

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ticker NEWS

Markets tumble as Trump tariffs, Greenland rhetoric and Europe backlash collide

U.S. stocks plummet over 800 points amid renewed tariff threats and political tensions from Trump, sparking global trade concerns.

Published

12 hours ago

January 21, 2026

Harvey Vargas

U.S. stocks plummet over 800 points amid renewed tariff threats and political tensions from Trump, sparking global trade concerns.

U.S. equities took a sharp hit as markets reacted to renewed tariff threats and heightened political rhetoric from President Donald Trump. The Dow plunged more than 800 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also sliding as investor nerves rattled risk assets.

The sell-off highlights growing concern around global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, with markets struggling to price in what comes next for U.S. economic leadership and policy direction.

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Money

Gold hits record highs as investors flee risk

Gold surges amid global uncertainty, with February futures rising 1.71% to $4,674.20 per ounce, signaling safe-haven demand.

Published

2 days ago

January 20, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Gold surges amid global uncertainty, with February futures rising 1.71% to $4,674.20 per ounce, signaling safe-haven demand.

Gold is shining brighter than ever as investors flock to safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty. U.S. gold futures for February delivery jumped 1.71% to $4,674.20 per ounce, while spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,668.14.

The surge comes as geopolitical tensions continue to worry traders, prompting a rush into metals perceived as stable and secure. Analysts say gold is proving its status as the ultimate hedge during turbulent times.

Investors are closely watching markets as gold sets new benchmarks, signalling growing caution across the financial landscape.

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Money

Markets edge higher as 10-year yields hit new highs

Major stock indices rise slightly; 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.23% amid Fed Chair speculation, affecting small and mega-cap stocks.

Published

2 days ago

January 19, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Major stock indices rise slightly; 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.23% amid Fed Chair speculation, affecting small and mega-cap stocks.

All major stock indices are starting the week slightly higher, giving investors cautious optimism. Analysts are keeping an eye on movements in small caps and mega-cap tech stocks amid these early gains.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has climbed to 4.23%, the highest since last September. This follows Kevin Warsh emerging as the frontrunner for the next Federal Reserve Chair, sparking speculation on future monetary policy.

Rising yields could trigger a pullback in small-cap stocks, while investors may pivot toward mega-cap tech, expected to deliver strong earnings growth. Overall, the market is likely to see a neutral to slightly bearish trend next week due to overbought conditions.

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