Prediction markets put the Nvidia chief executive’s chances of leaving at 13.2% as an investigation into his personal relationship raises questions about the future of the AI giant.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang could leave his position before the end of 2026, according to new prediction market analysis, as the technology giant faces mounting scrutiny over his relationship with a woman accused of spying for China.
Research from The Action Network places the probability of Huang resigning or being removed as CEO by December 31 at 13.2%, equivalent to American betting odds of +658.
The assessment follows Nvidia’s announcement of an independent investigation into Huang’s relationship with Alice Huang, an executive at cloud computing company MegaSpeed.
Nvidia shares fell 4% on Monday as investors weighed the potential implications for the world’s leading artificial intelligence chipmaker.
Investigation raises leadership questions
According to reports from The New York Times and Financial Times, U.S. intelligence agencies believe Alice Huang passed sensitive information to Beijing.
Nvidia’s board confirmed it had launched an independent investigation following reports that its chief executive had been targeted by a foreign intelligence operation.
The company said Huang fully supported the investigation and had committed to cooperating with the review.
In an email to employees, Huang acknowledged an extramarital affair and apologised for his conduct.
He admitted being unfaithful to his wife, saying his actions had hurt his family and fallen short of his responsibilities to colleagues, shareholders and business partners.
China has rejected the espionage allegations, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun describing the claims as unsubstantiated.
Wall Street weighs Nvidia’s future
The controversy has prompted debate over whether Nvidia could continue its extraordinary growth without the executive widely credited with establishing its dominance in artificial intelligence.
Technology analyst Dan Ives dismissed suggestions that Huang should be replaced, describing the prospect as highly unlikely.
However, he acknowledged the investigation had created uncertainty for investors, particularly given Huang’s central role in Nvidia’s strategy and relationships.
Investment strategist Joachim Klement warned that any threat to Huang’s leadership could have broader consequences for semiconductor companies reliant on Nvidia’s technology and partnerships.
The controversy comes during a period of heightened volatility across technology stocks, as investors reassess the scale and sustainability of artificial intelligence infrastructure spending.
Trump and technology leaders defend Huang
U.S. President Donald Trump defended Huang on Sunday, praising his contribution to American technological leadership while acknowledging he had not discussed the investigation directly with him.
Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire also expressed support, describing Huang as one of his generation’s greatest entrepreneurs.
Tesla and SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk subsequently endorsed Maguire’s comments.
Meanwhile, The Action Network said its probability assessment incorporates trading activity, market confidence and historical forecasting performance from prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.
“We analysed prediction-market pricing and movements from Kalshi and Polymarket, factoring in trading activity, market confidence and each platform’s historical forecasting accuracy.
“Our in-depth analysis of historical prediction-market performance data shows that both platforms have demonstrated strong forecasting records in science and technology markets, with their favoured outcomes proving correct around 94% of the time when measured one day before resolution.”
“Taking these factors into account, our analysis puts Jensen Huang’s year-end NVIDIA CEO exit outlook at a 13.2% implied probability, equivalent to +658 American odds.”
The full prediction market methodology is available through The Action Network.
Nvidia is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on November 17, providing investors with another opportunity to assess the company’s performance as questions surrounding its leadership continue.
