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Post Market Wrap | Rio Tinto launches US$2.7B cash offer for full ownership of Turquoise Hill

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Offer price is a 32 percent premium to Turquoise Hill’s last closing share price
  • Two-thirds of Turquoise Hill minority shareholders must approve the offer
  • Acquisition will strengthen RIO’s exposure to copper
  • Copper is strategically important given its application to Electric Vehicles and wind turbines. 

Rio Tinto Limited (‘RIO’ or the ‘Company’) is the world’s second-largest metals and mining corporation (after BHP). The Company’s product groups are iron ore, copper & diamonds, aluminium, gold and uranium. The Company’s iron ore interests are based in the Pilbara region of Western Australia and comprise a number of large-scale integrated mines.

Cash bid for Turquoise Hill 

RIO has announced its intention to acquire the remaining 49 percent equity that it doesn’t currently own in Toronto Stock Exchange listed miner Turquoise Hill, for C$34 a share. The offer price is a 32 percent premium to Turquoise Hill’s last closing share price and values the 49 percent minority stake at US$2.7 billion. The bid price appears reasonable given RIO already has a controlling 51 percent equity stake, so it is not bound to include a change-of-control premium in the offer price. Turquoise Hill shareholders must approve the ownership change, which requires two thirds of Turquoise Hill minority shareholders to vote in favour of the proposal. 

Turquoise Hill is the majority owner of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia. The acquisition will deliver to RIO a 66 percent stake in the copper mine alongside the Mongolian government, which owns the remaining 34 percent interest. RIO are already familiar with the Oya Tolgoi copper project, having spent more than US$6 billion in operating and capital costs since 2010.  A controlling interest in Oyu Tolgoi strengthens RIO’s position in copper and clears the way for it to negotiate suitable terms with the Mongolian government, before committing to funding the cost of underground mining operations. RIO believe that these negotiations are likely to be more productive once the ownership structure of Oyu Tolgoi is simplified by having just 2 parties agree to the terms under which the project expansion can proceed. 

RIO’s all-cash bid for 100 percent of Turquoise Hill appears logical before these negotiations with the Joint Venture partner in the Mongolian government proceed, given the significant amount of capital investment required to fund the underground mining extension. The offer is also well-timed because it relieves existing Turquoise Hill shareholders from having to fund a large equity raising to avoid dilution, if the RIO take-over offer is not accepted. 

Image: File

The economic significance of RIO’s proposed 100 percent ownership of Turquoise Hill is illustrated by the fact that Oyu Tolgoi will deliver additional production of 52,000 tonnes per annum of copper from existing mining operations. This is equivalent to an additional 9 percent of RIO’s present copper production volume. Importantly, the proposed underground expansion of Oyu Tolgoi can deliver up to another 160,000 tonnes per annum, being a 28 percent increase to existing production volume, by 2028.  This amount compares to RIO’s estimated FY2022 mined copper production of 500-575,000 tonnes. At present, underground operations are expected to deliver first production in H1 2023.

Copper is strategically significant to miners across the globe given that it is an essential commodity used in Electric Vehicles and wind turbines. The acquisition also diversifies RIO’s mining interests, which are heavily tilted to iron ore production, which represents about 76 percent of EBITDA.

RIO’s gradual diversification from iron ore to future-facing metals like lithium and now copper, which are essential commodities in a carbon-neutral world, is likely to be well supported by equity markets.   

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

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As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

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A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

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