A new report has revealed the economic costs from a plunge in tourism since the pandemic.

The UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) has revealed COVID-19 could place a $4 trillion hole in the world’s economy.

The report found the pandemic’s impact will lead to a ripple effect on other sectors closely linked to it.

The UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says vaccinations are a key part of the world’s post-COVID success.

“Tourism is a lifeline for millions, and advancing vaccination to protect communities and support tourism’s safe restart is critical to the recovery of jobs and generation of much-needed resources, especially in developing countries, many of which are highly dependent on international tourism.”

The report assesses the economic impacts of three possible scenarios, which all reflect reductions in international arrivals.

Reduction in international travel

The first scenario reflects a 75 percent reduction in international tourist arrivals – the most pessimistic forecast. It is based on tourist reductions and trends faced last year.

For example, tourism makes up five percent of Turkey’s GDP. But the nation experienced a 69 percent fall in international tourists in 2020.

This fall is estimated to cost $33 billion, which has led to other cross-sector losses in hospitality, communications and transport.

In the second scenario, UNWTO examines a 63 percent reduction in tourist arrivals. Then, domestic and regional tourism is considered in the third scenario.

Vaccinations drive tourism

Experts are also concerned about the varying vaccination rates around the world, and how they will impact international travel.

The report discusses the “asymmetric roll-out of vaccines”, and how it “magnifies the economic blow tourism has suffered in developing countries”. Vaccine rates vary from 1 to 60 percent between some countries.

Isabelle Durant is the Acting Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). She says the world needs to push for global vaccination.

“The world needs a global vaccination effort that will protect workers, mitigate adverse social effects and make strategic decisions regarding tourism, taking potential structural changes into account.”

Experts do not expect a return to pre-COVID travel until 2023, or later. They believe travel restrictions, slow containment of COVID-19, poor economic opportunities, and low traveller confidence are among the reasons for the delay.