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How much will economies lose to tourism because of the pandemic?

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Tourism is expected to impact global economies.

A new report has revealed the economic costs from a plunge in tourism since the pandemic.

The UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) has revealed COVID-19 could place a $4 trillion hole in the world’s economy.

The report found the pandemic’s impact will lead to a ripple effect on other sectors closely linked to it.

The UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says vaccinations are a key part of the world’s post-COVID success.

“Tourism is a lifeline for millions, and advancing vaccination to protect communities and support tourism’s safe restart is critical to the recovery of jobs and generation of much-needed resources, especially in developing countries, many of which are highly dependent on international tourism.”

The report assesses the economic impacts of three possible scenarios, which all reflect reductions in international arrivals.

Reduction in international travel

The first scenario reflects a 75 percent reduction in international tourist arrivals – the most pessimistic forecast. It is based on tourist reductions and trends faced last year.

For example, tourism makes up five percent of Turkey’s GDP. But the nation experienced a 69 percent fall in international tourists in 2020.

This fall is estimated to cost $33 billion, which has led to other cross-sector losses in hospitality, communications and transport.

In the second scenario, UNWTO examines a 63 percent reduction in tourist arrivals. Then, domestic and regional tourism is considered in the third scenario.

Vaccinations drive tourism

Experts are also concerned about the varying vaccination rates around the world, and how they will impact international travel.

The report discusses the “asymmetric roll-out of vaccines”, and how it “magnifies the economic blow tourism has suffered in developing countries”. Vaccine rates vary from 1 to 60 percent between some countries.

Isabelle Durant is the Acting Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). She says the world needs to push for global vaccination.

“The world needs a global vaccination effort that will protect workers, mitigate adverse social effects and make strategic decisions regarding tourism, taking potential structural changes into account.”

Experts do not expect a return to pre-COVID travel until 2023, or later. They believe travel restrictions, slow containment of COVID-19, poor economic opportunities, and low traveller confidence are among the reasons for the delay.

Costa is a news producer at ticker NEWS. He has previously worked as a regional journalist at the Southern Highlands Express newspaper. He also has several years' experience in the fire and emergency services sector, where he has worked with researchers, policymakers and local communities. He has also worked at the Seven Network during their Olympic Games coverage and in the ABC Melbourne newsroom. He also holds a Bachelor of Arts (Professional), with expertise in journalism, politics and international relations. His other interests include colonial legacies in the Pacific, counter-terrorism, aviation and travel.

World

Indonesia’s inflation soars to a 5-year high

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Indonesia’s inflation rate has hit a five-year high, as businesses continue to pass rising costs onto consumers

As countries around the world deal with the rising cost of living, Indonesia’s inflation rate has exceeded predictions.

The country’s consumer price index rose just above 4 percent in June, which is the biggest year-on-year climb since 2017.

This blew the Bank of Indonesia’s estimates out of the water, with the Bank expecting a rise of between 2 and 4 percent.

Experts say June’s inflation was largely triggered by red chilies, cayenne pepper, cooking oil, and shallots.

Prices of food, beverages, and tobacco all rose above 8 percent, and transportation is also helping drive inflation, especially in airline passenger fees due to high fuel costs.

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Several dead after horror shooting at Copenhagen shopping centre

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Several people are dead after a gunman opened fire at a shopping centre in Copenhagen

A mass shooting incident in one of Denmark’s largest shopping centres has left several people dead and others injured.

A 22-year-old Danish man has been arrested, with police refusing to rule out the attack being an act of terrorism.

Authorities arrived at Field’s mall in the Danish capital late on Sunday afternoon local time, as people were told to stay put and wait for assistance.

Local media has published images of terrified shoppers running for safety, with eyewitnesses describing panic as gunfire echoed through the shopping centre.

Credit: EPA

Singer Harry Styles was due to perform in the city, but the concert has been cancelled. Attendees have asked to leave Copenhagen’s Royal Arena.

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The multi-storey shopping mall where the attack occurred is around 5 kilometres south of downtown Copenhagen.

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U.S. watching China ‘very closely’ over Taiwan

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The United States is watching China ‘very closely’, but a top official says an attack on Taiwan is ‘not imminent’

China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland, and by force, if necessary.

United States Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley told the BBC that China is developing a capability to attack Taiwan at some point in time.

Milley says whether or not the nation does this is a political and policy choice, based on how the Chinese view the cost and risk-benefit at the time.

Beijing has accused Washington of supporting Taiwan’s independence vowing to ‘crush’ any such attempt.

Back in May, U.S. President Joe Biden said China was “flirting with danger” by flying warplanes close to Taiwan. The President has vowed to protect the island militarily if required.

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