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U.S. Fed Reserve hikes interest rates by 25 basis points

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The U.S. Federal Reserve has announced its latest interest rate hike

 
The 25 basis-point increase comes after a half-point hike in December, and a three-quarter-point increase the month before that.

And it came with the forecast that the Fed isn’t finished.

“We will need substantially more evidence to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path,” U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press conference.

Powell noted positive signs that inflation was beginning to abate.

“We can now say I think for the first time that the disinflationary process has started, and we see it in goods prices, so far…but it is insufficient to signal an end to the rate hikes, though it would be stepping down from last year’s rapid pace of increases.”

Future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments.

“We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, taking into account the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation,” Powell added.

The decision lifted the benchmark overnight interest rate to a range between 4.50% and 4.75% – a move widely anticipated by investors and flagged by U.S. central bankers ahead of this week’s two-day policy session.

Inflation, based on the Fed’s preferred measure, slowed to a 5% annual rate in December.

The Fed hopes it can continue nudging inflation lower to its 2% target without triggering a deep recession or causing a substantial rise in the unemployment rate from the current 3.5%, a level rarely seen in recent decades.

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Divorce spike in Australia triggers hidden tax risks

Australia sees increased divorce filings amid emotional challenges, with many couples overlooking significant tax pitfalls in their settlements.

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Australia sees increased divorce filings amid emotional challenges, with many couples overlooking significant tax pitfalls in their settlements.


Australia is facing a sharp rise in divorce filings over the past two months — but as couples navigate emotional breakups, many are missing major tax traps hidden in their settlements.

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Stocks rebound despite tariff concerns and earnings anticipation

US stocks rebound amid tariff uncertainty; key earnings reports and economic data loom as volatility persists in the market.

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US stocks rebound amid tariff uncertainty; key earnings reports and economic data loom as volatility persists in the market.

In Short

The stock market recovered after an early decline, led by companies like Boeing and IBM.

Investors are cautious ahead of upcoming economic data and potential trade developments, with projections of a 7% drop in S&P 500 earnings by 2025 due to tariffs.

A late recovery in the stock market reversed an early decline as dip buyers entered during a volatile day.

On Monday, the S&P 500 completed its fifth reversal of 1% or more in a month, matching the total seen throughout 2024. Gains were led by Boeing and IBM, while Nvidia fell following Huawei’s announcement regarding a new chip. Major tech companies, including Microsoft and Apple, are expected to report earnings soon.

Short-term Treasuries performed better, and the dollar weakened amidst ongoing economic data releases.

Economic data

The upcoming week promises substantial economic data, with reports on jobs and inflation due. A Texas manufacturing survey revealed significant weakness, with executives describing the tariff situation as chaotic.

Experts predict an eventful week, with potential for market volatility driven by various trade and economic headlines. Investors are particularly attuned to trade relations with China, with outlooks hinging on government actions.

Despite some executives remaining uncertain about tariff impacts, analysts are calculating potential effects on corporate earnings. Bloomberg Economics projects net income for the S&P 500 could drop around 7% by 2025 due to elevated tariff rates, compared to previous growth expectations.

Morgan Stanley suggests that a weak dollar may help US earnings, keeping the S&P 500 within a 5,000 to 5,500 range unless trade agreements with China are made, alongside a rebound in earnings and potential easing of monetary policy.

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Busy week: big tech earnings, U.S. jobs data

Busy week for markets with major tech earnings and U.S. jobs data shaping investor sentiment amid trade uncertainties.

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Busy week for markets with major tech earnings and U.S. jobs data shaping investor sentiment amid trade uncertainties.

In Short

Next week, major tech companies, including Apple and Microsoft, will report earnings alongside key economic data, amid ongoing global trade concerns.

The S&P 500 has seen some recovery but remains down 10% since February, with investors anxiously awaiting the U.S. jobs report and economic growth indicators.

Next week, U.S. markets anticipate significant activity as big tech companies release earnings and crucial economic data is reported.

Investors will focus on corporate results from major firms like Apple and Microsoft, alongside the U.S. jobs report and first-quarter economic growth data. This comes amidst ongoing concerns related to global trade that could affect market stability.

The S&P 500 index has seen modest recovery recently, cutting its previous losses but still down roughly 10% from February’s peak. Optimism has been partially driven by indications of a softer trade approach from the Trump administration.

Market sensitivity

Michael Mullaney of Boston Partners noted that stock market sensitivity remains high, responding rapidly to any shifts in tariff news. Recent easing of trade tensions, including a pause in major tariffs announced by Trump, has contributed to market gains, but uncertainty continues.

In the forthcoming week, about 180 S&P 500 companies, accounting for over 40% of the index’s value, will announce their quarterly performance. Early reports indicate strong earnings growth, though some firms have lowered profit forecasts, highlighting potential challenges ahead.

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