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“Worse than the Suez Canal”: Global supply chain nightmare | ticker VIEWS

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The current disruption to cargo has surpassed March’s Suez Canal disaster. What does this mean for the shipping industry, businesses and consumers?

Well, be prepared for weeks on end of delays – and that’s just the beginning of this supply chain nightmare.

“WORSE THAN THE SUEZ CANAL’

Amazon Prime Day is coming up next week and it’s the biggest day of the year for the online retail giant.

As consumers increasingly turn to online retail, are freighting companies keeping up with demand?

Why are freight companies under stress?

In the wake of one of China’s busiest shipping ports closing down last month due to a COVID-outbreak, freighting companies find themselves at breaking point.

With the industry just getting back on its feet following the Suez Canal blockage, experts are concerned that this latest delay will have even more significant consequences.

China’s Yantian Port says it will be back to normal by late June, but it may be months before the cargo backlog clears and the global ripple effects subdue.

AP Moller MARSK is the world’s number one container carrier and says “the trend is concerning, and unceasing congestion is becoming a worrying problem.”

Ocean strategy company Flexport also shares these concerns, believing the congestion will take six to eight weeks to settle.

This is of particular concern because it extends disruptions into the peak Christmas and holiday seasons, as retailers and importers ramp up their shipments.

Maritime expert Alison Cusack says the knock-on effects from this delay are enormous and consumers will feel the pinch.

When will we see the shipping sector return to normal?

Well, don’t hold you breath. Cusack says at least 2022… “If we’re lucky”

What does increased cost of cargo mean for me?

Experts are warning that consumers may begin to feel the pinch from rising shipping costs, as the price of transporting goods by sea skyrockets.

Recetn figures show the transportation of a 40-foot steel container ship between Shanghai and Rotterdam now costs over $10,000, that’s a huge 547 percent increase on the average price.

Around 80 percent of the world’s goods are transported by ships, meaning the costs will be largely unavoidable for both consumers and businesses

Toy importer, Gary Grant says “during 40 years in toy retailing he has never known such challenging conditions from the point of view of pricing.”

It’s believed the rise in costs is associated with a number of factors, from soaring demand to a shortage of containers, busy ports and a limited workforce.

The disruption to the shipping industry could lead to shortages in the lead up to Christmas.

An outbreak of Covid-19 in a province in southern China is causing congestion at the region’s ports.

Shipments have now been delayed… adding to the tensions within global supply chains, the knock-on effects could take many months to resolve.

This is the latest in a series of severe setbacks for the industry and experts says that problems in just one region can have ripple effects around the world for several months.

The cost of cargo mishaps on the environment

Two weeks ago, a chemical-laden cargo ship sunk off the coast of Sri Lanka amid fears of a major environmental disaster.

Hundreds of tonnes of engine oil possibly leaked into the sea, with a devastating impact on marine life.

Sri Lankan and India worked together to put out the fire and prevent the ship from breaking up and sinking.

X-Press Shipping – the Singapore based company which owns the vessel – confirmed the crew had been aware of the leak, but say they were denied permission by both Qatar and India to leave the ship there before the fire broke out.

The fact that Sri Lanka allowed the vessel to enter the country’s waters after it was rejected by two other nations has led to widespread public anger.

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RBA stands pat on interest rates as hopes dim for future cuts

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RBA stands pat on interest rates as hopes dim for future cuts

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney

The Reserve Bank kept the cash rate steady at 3.6% at today’s meeting. In its post-meeting statement, the central bank said the monetary policy board

judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious.

This pause follows three cuts earlier this year — in February, May and August, each by 25 basis points — which lowered the cash rate from 4.1% to its current level. Governor Michele Bullock said the bank is watching those previous cuts work through the economy.

Bullock stressed that while inflation has eased from its peak, progress remains uneven, and the bank is not ready to declare victory.

For now, patience is the safer course. The next big test will be the September quarter inflation report, due at the end of October. That release will go a long way to deciding whether cuts resume later this year or slip into 2026. Market pricing, once confident of a November move, now sees the odds as little better than a coin toss.

“By the next meeting in November, we’ll have more data on the labour market and inflation data for the September quarter,” Bullock told a press conference after the meeting.

Why the RBA is waiting

The monthly consumer price index (CPI) for August showed annual inflation rising to 3.0%, up from 2.8% in July. Although this is a 12-month high, much of the increase came from the expiry of electricity rebates — a temporary factor the bank had already anticipated.

Bullock has repeatedly said the Reserve Bank puts more weight on the quarterly “trimmed mean” inflation measure — a point she emphasised most recently before the House of Representatives economics committee. This measure strips out one-off price swings and gives a clearer picture of underlying inflation.

Even so, the monthly figures show the annual trimmed mean edged down from 2.7% in July to 2.6% in August. That suggests the underlying trend remains one of gradual disinflation (a slowing in the pace of price increases), despite the lift in the headline rate.

Bullock told reporters:

The monthly data are volatile […] I don’t want to suggest that inflation is running away, but we just need to be a little bit cautious.

Progress is not yet secure. Inflation must stay within the 2–3% target range on a sustained basis before the Reserve Bank can cut with confidence. Moving too early risks undoing hard-won gains and forcing harsher measures later.



Other data reinforce this cautious approach. June quarter economic growth surprised on the upside, showing the economy is more resilient than expected. Meanwhile, unemployment has ticked higher but remains low, pointing to a labour market that is cooling only gradually.

As the statement noted,

private consumption is picking up as real household incomes rise […] The housing market is strengthening […] Credit is readily available to both households and businesses.

Together, these signals give the Reserve Bank space to pause rather than rush into easing.

A big shift in expectations

The major banks have also adjusted their forecasts. NAB has ruled out any further move this year, dropping its earlier forecasts for November and February cuts and now expecting the next reduction in May 2026. Westpac still expects a November cut, but acknowledges the timing could slip.

Financial markets have also pared back their bets. Pricing once implied near-certainty of a November cut, but that probability has now fallen to roughly 50-50.

The September quarter consumer price index will be decisive: a softer result could revive expectations of an earlier cut, while a stronger one would reinforce the view that rate cuts will not resume until 2026.

With the economy stronger than forecast and CPI a touch higher, both banks and markets are pushing out the timing of cuts. The Reserve Bank’s message is clear: inflation must show sustained progress before policy can be eased. Until then, the next cut is a matter of when, not if.

Rates around the world

The Reserve Bank is not alone in being cautious. In the United States, the Federal Reserve delivered three cuts in 2024, but only made its first cut of 2025 in September. The European Central Bank has reduced rates four times this year, but has kept policy steady since June.

Political tensions, volatile energy prices and fragile global growth all add to the uncertainty, reinforcing the case for patience in Australia.

For households, today’s decision offers no relief. Mortgage repayments remain at an elevated level and consumer spending is weak.

Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank said it will remain data-driven and responsive to risks:

The Board will be attentive to the data […] focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.

For households, that means the wait for relief goes on. The next move is a cut, but today’s decision makes clear it won’t be rushed.The Conversation

Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Markets remain strong amid potential government shutdown fears

Markets remain strong as investors anticipate jobs data while ignoring government shutdown and tariff concerns

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Markets remain strong as investors anticipate jobs data while ignoring government shutdown and tariff concerns

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In Short:
– Major indices are near session highs, with the Dow up 382 points and resilient to shutdown concerns.
– Rising Treasury yields may challenge bullish sentiment, while upcoming economic reports will influence market direction.
Major indices are trading near session highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 382 points, the S&P 500 by 41 points, and the Nasdaq Composite by 100 points.
Investors seem undeterred by the looming government shutdown and new tariff announcements. Despite the challenges, markets appear resilient due to previous experiences with shutdowns.Banner

This coming week, markets should brace for monthly jobs data, assuming no shutdown occurs. Previous initial claims reports have lessened after reaching 263,000 on September 11.

Technical indicators show promise following a retreat to the 20-day SMA. The end of bearish seasonality approaches, coinciding with Q3 earnings season.

Market Perspective

However, rising Treasury yields could pose a challenge for bullish sentiment. The 10-year yield has increased over the past eight trading sessions and may close at a three-week peak.

If it stays below 4.25%, it could support ongoing bullish trends. A notable risk remains the potential negative impact of the jobs report.

Upcoming economic reports include pending home sales, consumer confidence, and nonfarm payrolls, all key to market direction.


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Crypto market plummets near $1 billion in liquidations

Crypto markets crash as liquidations approach $1 billion, marking a severe downturn in September 2025

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Crypto markets crash as liquidations approach $1 billion, marking a severe downturn in September 2025

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In Short:
– Cryptocurrency markets declined significantly, with liquidations nearing $1 billion and Bitcoin below $110,000.
– $442 million in positions were liquidated on Thursday, with Ethereum most affected, raising trader concerns.
Cryptocurrency markets faced significant declines on Thursday, with liquidations nearing $1 billion, contributing to a larger selloff that has cost the sector over $160 billion in market capitalisation.
Bitcoin fell below $110,000, trading around $111,400, while Ethereum dipped below the critical $4,000 support level, marking its lowest point in seven weeks.
The global crypto market capitalisation dropped by 2.2% to $3.91 trillion.Banner

Liquidation reports revealed that $442 million in positions were forcibly closed on Thursday, with Ethereum most affected, accounting for over $180 million.

The previous week saw a larger liquidation event, with $1.7 billion wiped out. Traders are concerned as a significant number of long positions were liquidated in this downturn.

Market Trends

Market analysts highlight a pattern of leveraged trading leading to cascading selloffs. Seasonal factors, regulatory uncertainty, and a strengthening US dollar contributed to the declines.

Despite the downturn, some large investors are taking the opportunity to accumulate assets.


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