A good way for investors to predict future demand in the property market is to follow population growth patterns.

Locations that have more people moving to them experience an uplift in demand to buy and rent properties, and that is what leads to further price growth.

Australia’s population grew by 1.8% in the 12 months to September 2024, adding 484,000 people to the national headcount, according to the latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

That puts Australia’s population at 27.3 million, with overseas migration once again leading the charge. While the post-pandemic migration surge has moderated, we’re still seeing 618,000 arrivals versus 238,000 departures.

All of this contributes to pressure on the housing market.

Western Australia led population growth, up by 2.5%, followed by Victoria, up 2.1%, Queensland, 2% and Tasmania,  0.3%.

Numbers-wise the population grew the most in Victoria, up by 146,700 people, while New South Wales added 120,800 and Queensland, 111,900.

These increases represent a real increase in housing demand across all tenures: ownership, rental, and emergency accommodation.

Australia’s housing supply continues to lag population growth and while big-city markets get the media spotlight, regional areas are also experiencing intense growth and growing demand for housing.

RBA maintains cash rate at 4.10%, delaying relief for homeowners amid global tariff concerns and inflation risks.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the official cash rate at 4.10 per cent, leaving homeowners awaiting further rate cuts. This decision follows the RBA’s board meeting held on Tuesday.

The RBA’s statement indicated that concerns over potential tariff expansions from the United States are influencing global economic confidence. The RBA noted that geopolitical uncertainties have increased, potentially affecting global economic activity and spending decisions by households and businesses.

Inflation concerns were also highlighted, with the RBA acknowledging the unpredictable nature of inflation rates. The board mentioned that although many central banks have relaxed monetary policies, they are becoming more cautious due to evolving global risks.

Market expectations aligned with the RBA’s hold on interest rates, as analysts indicated a low probability of a cut this month. Economist Saul Eslake suggested the RBA would consider upcoming jobs and inflation data before determining its next steps.

AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver stated the RBA is likely to remain cautious, particularly during an election period. He noted that while inflation remains below forecasts, the job market shows tight conditions, justifying a careful approach.

The RBA previously lowered the cash rate from 4.35 to 4.10 per cent in February and has urged mortgage holders to remain patient as they strive to manage inflation. RBA Governor Michele Bullock expressed understanding of the challenges faced by homeowners but emphasised the importance of reducing inflation before further rate cuts can occur.

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