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How the Iraq war battered our trust in “experts”

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The Iraq war’s damage to public trust in experts has consequences right up to today

Twenty years after the invasion of Iraq, politicians continue to repeat the errors of the past by taking information from security briefings that they want to hear.

Ahead of the 2003 invasion and subsequent occupation, US and UK politicians used some of the intelligence gathered by western security agencies to suggest that the local population would predominantly welcome external military powers as liberators. But it quickly became apparent this was a mistake and that the fighting capability of those who would resist had been underestimated. A long and bloody insurgency followed.

Fast forward to 2022 and we saw Russian president Vladimir Putin acting under the apparent belief that his conquest of Ukraine would also be simple, and meet with little resistance from a weak defence force. Western intelligence reports have since highlighted how Putin and his advisers significantly underestimated Ukraine and made poor judgements about their own intelligence information.

The public, however, at least in western countries, appears to have become much more sceptical of politicians armed with intelligence from experts. As well as the thousands of deaths, trillions of dollars of expense and irreversible changes to national and international politics, this arguably remains one of the legacies of the Iraq war.

Intelligent lessons

The conflict taught the public valuable lessons about intelligence. A review by Lord Butler and the Chilcot inquiry that followed the war showed that intelligence is never certain. Intelligence agencies provide “best truths” to politicians, who then take decisions.

The Iraq war made secret intelligence a topic for discussion in homes across the world. A publicly accessible version of the intelligence picture was presented to the public by UK prime minister Tony Blair. This was a groundbreaking decision and one that defined Blair’s career.

The weaknesses in the intelligence dossiers, once exposed, also appeared to undermine public support for the conflict. In contrast, the public continued to strongly support the armed forces and particularly those injured and killed in action.

In parallel a public narrative developed that experts were often wrong, and politicians could not be trusted. The idea that experts are not to be trusted has become ever more repeated in recent years, through the Brexit debates and governmental responses to the pandemic.

However, the failings in the communication and use of intelligence data does not mean security services were to blame for the war.

True, some of the vulnerabilities in western intelligence reporting seemed farcical when exposed to public scrutiny. The information from an informant known as Curveball – an Iraqi expatriate – was used by the US in making the case for war in the UK, despite German and British reservations. Curveball’s information later emerged to be inaccurate.

Terrorist warning

But in other areas it appears intelligence services provided nuanced information and accurate warnings. For example, UK intelligence chiefs warned ministers that the conflict would increase the terrorist threat.

Others within defence intelligence warned that once the first phase of the conflict against regular Iraqi armed forces were complete that a long-running insurgency would follow. Commanders in the British army warned that without direct investment into the Iraqi city of Basra and surroundings that this area would become radicalised.

Some key assumptions around Iraq’s chemical weapons programme were clearly unhelpful. But the agencies were arguably also right to feel bruised that the blame for the war landed with them, when they had no way of changing government policy.

The leaks and publication of intelligence related to Iraq brought with them the era of the armchair expert and the conspiracy theorist. Many academics argued that this openness in intelligence would produce a mature public debate. But the weaknesses in the intelligence undermined the idea that governments are a source of truth.

Deep dive investigations and conspiracies have surrounded the death of biological weapons expert and UK government advisor David Kelly in 2003. Kelly’s untimely death has been the subject of official and unofficial investigations and spurred a cottage industry in speculation.

Kelly died after he was publicly revealed to be a confidential source for BBC journalist Andrew Gilligan’s assertion that part of the government’s intelligence dossier on “weapons of mass destruction” was fabricated. His death was officially ruled a suicide.

This was confirmed by the Hutton inquiry and again by a later inquiry by the attorney general. But public suspicion about Kelly’s death persist with books and a TV drama .

More broadly, Iraq resulted in a loss in public support for British involvement in war, which was seemingly conditional on how people viewed the purpose of the conflict and prospects of victory.

This view will in part be shaped by their trust in the initial intelligence and in whether they believe governments tell the truth. As debates around the pandemic have shown, once trust has gone it is hard to get back.

Intelligence agencies did change the way they operate in response to criticisms over Iraq. Agencies spent more time and resource on ensuring they had more evidence for their claims and were more careful with wording claims. This was a necessary change for the intelligence community, but did not address how politicians use intelligence. Without that change, the world is still vulnerable to misread and misunderstood intelligence assessments.

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Resilience and positivity: Emmilia O’Sullivan’s inspiring health journey

Emilia O’Sullivan’s inspiring journey highlights resilience in overcoming life-threatening health challenges and her mission to help others.

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Emmilia O’Sullivan’s inspiring journey highlights resilience in overcoming life-threatening health challenges and her mission to help others.

In Short

Emmilia O’Sullivan, an award-winning author, has faced severe health challenges since childhood but remains resilient and determined to inspire others through her book, podcast and beyond. She emphasises a positive mindset and actively engages with her medical team while supporting her family during her journey.

Emmilia O’Sullivan, an award-winning author, shared her journey through numerous health challenges starting from childhood.

Born with kidney disease, she had a kidney removed by age two and lived on one kidney until major complications arose at seventeen, requiring a bladder reconstruction and a kidney transplant at twenty-one.

However, shortly after her transplant, she faced a diagnosis of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma at twenty-two. Following remission, she discovered rare EBV-driven smooth muscle tumors.

Over the years, Emmilia dealt with various medical issues, including a tumour requiring a craniotomy and a severe bout of sepsis that led to a coma.

Despite these obstacles, Emmilia demonstrates remarkable resilience, emphasising a positive mindset and a strong desire to survive. She actively engages with her medical team, focusing on treatments and timelines, determined to keep moving forward.

Her support system includes her husband and family, and she also plays a reassuring role for them despite her struggles.

Emmilia views her health challenges not as defining elements but as aspects of her life alongside her ambition to inspire younger individuals facing similar issues.

Through her book, & podcast she aims to provide guidance and support for others.

You can find her podcast on social media platforms and her website, ammeliaosullivan.com. Emmilia’s story is a testament to fighting spirit and the pursuit of life goals despite adversity.

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Mental health services in Australia face funding and access crisis

Mental health support needs increased funding and resources to combat stigma and ensure affordability in Australia.

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Mental health support needs increased funding and resources to combat stigma and ensure affordability in Australia.

In Short

Demand for mental health support is rising in Australia, hindered by affordability, resource shortages, and stigma. Shehara Fernando, CEO of Crowned Cross Healthcare, calls for equal prioritisation of mental health services and systemic changes to improve access and reduce stigma.

The demand for mental health support continues to rise as affordability, resource shortages, and societal stigma present significant hurdles.

Shehara Fernando, founder and CEO of Crowned Cross Healthcare, highlighted the pressing need to prioritise mental health services on par with physical health care in Australia. High out-of-pocket costs hinder access, with current Medicare rebates often inadequate for ongoing therapy and specialised treatment.

Resource shortages, particularly of psychologists and psychiatrists, must be addressed through increased training of healthcare professionals and the expansion of telehealth options, which can reach rural populations effectively. Fernando emphasised the need for tailored services for diverse groups facing unique mental health challenges.

Overcoming societal stigma, especially among men, remains critical. Statistics reveal only 15% of Australian men with mental health conditions seek help, with a substantial number dropping out of treatment. Fernando urged public figures to speak openly about mental health, fostering an environment where seeking help is seen as a sign of strength.

Crowned Cross Healthcare aims to deliver quality mental health services and encourages individuals to connect through their website and social media for support and resources. More systemic changes and discussions are vital for improving mental health care access.

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Hamas agrees to release Israeli hostages after Trump issues ultimatum amid ceasefire uncertainty

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Trump and Netanyahu warn of renewed conflict if hostages are not freed by deadline.

Hamas has confirmed it will release three more Israeli hostages as originally planned, reversing an earlier threat to delay their release.

The terror group had warned that it would withhold the captives unless Israel provided compensation for what it claimed were unmet entitlements.

However, under mounting international pressure, Hamas has agreed to proceed with the release.

The announcement comes amid growing tensions, as both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump have made it clear that a failure to release all remaining hostages by Saturday at noon could result in the collapse of the current ceasefire.

Trump, during a press conference, stated that if the deadline is not met, Israel should “cancel it and … let hell break out.”

Netanyahu echoed similar sentiments, reinforcing that Israel would take decisive action if Hamas did not comply.

In a recent meeting, Trump and Netanyahu also discussed the possibility of resettling Palestinians outside of Gaza and even suggested U.S. control over the region—a proposal that has sparked debate among international leaders.

Josh Hasten a Middle East correspondent for JNS, and the co-host of the JNS podcast “Jerusalem Minute” joins Veronica Dudo to discuss.

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