Michelle Grattan, University of Canberra

Helen Haines, the independent federal MP seriously injured in Monday’s attack outside her Wangaratta office, remains in a critical condition, with sources saying she has lost a leg.

Her alleged attacker has been identified as one of her constituents – Brendan Nugent, from nearby Tarrawingee. He is on the electoral roll in her federal seat of Indi, in north eastern Victoria.

Haines had surgery overnight. One leg was massively injured when she was struck, reportedly more than once, by the alleged attacker’s white Toyota Landcruiser. Sources on Tuesday morning said doctors were fighting to save the other leg.

Nugent, 43, is in custody, with authorities interviewing him as they seek to determine a motive. Reportedly, he was too impaired to be interviewed on Monday night, because of the effect of drugs or alcohol.

A bystander at Monday’s events, Cody Lepoidevin, described Nugent’s demeanour after he was pulled from his vehicle as “erratic”, saying he was concerned about the passenger door of his vehicle, his phone and his wallet.

On X, Nugent, an environmental activist, describes himself as “Plant Person” and says, “The world should be run by dogs and children”.

Scrutiny of his postings on X, formerly Twitter, shows him focused on the environment, particularly native forest logging. He also has been anti-Israel in some posts, and critical of the alliance with the United States and AUKUS.

He has often commented in reply to politicians in relation to issues, including some tweets referring to Haines. His social media posts have often been strong and sometimes rude, but not (as far as one can determine among nearly 11,000 posts since 2014) going to incitement.

In a document some years ago titled “Victorian forestry factsheet; employment, economics and water” which was “Prepared by Brendan Nugent”, he described himself as holding “a Master of Forest Ecosystem Science, The University of Melbourne, Creswick Campus (Victorian School of Forestry)”. He was also listed as a committee member of “the Save Our Strathbogie Forest group”. The document remains on the website of the Rubicon Forest Protection Group.

The Age has reported that police visited Nugent’s property some months ago after neighbours were concerned he was showing erratic behaviour. The paper quoted sources saying he had changed dramatically and they were worried about his mental health.

Those involved in the investigation are the federal and Victorian police, the Joint Counter Terrorism Team, and ASIO.

Politicians across the spectrum lamented the level of political division and intolerance that is poisoning our democracy and encouraging violence.

Asked if security would be increased in the wake of the attack, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said: “We take the advice of the security agencies, including, of course, the Australian Federal Police. And we act upon that advice. But I never want to lose the opportunity for people to mix with their representatives. That’s a really important part of our democracy.”

ASIO chief Mike Burgess said in a statement:

Victoria Police are working to establish the motivation for this attack, including whether the incident was politically motivated.

When ASIO raised the National Terrorism Threat Level in August 2024, I stated that politically motivated violence had joined espionage and foreign interference as Australia’s principal security concerns.

The National Terrorism Threat Level remains at PROBABLE, but the temperature and trajectory of the security environment are concerning.

Elevated levels of grievance, intolerance and polarisation continue to create a permissive environment of violence.

I have repeatedly put on the record my concern about the use of violent rhetoric in public discourse.

Words matter.

While political differences, debates and peaceful protests are essential parts of a healthy democracy, ASIO has seen direct correlations between inflamed language, inflamed tensions and acts of violence.

Disagreement is okay but acts of violence and intimidation are not – especially against those democratically chosen to represent us.

Albanese on Tuesday said he contacted Ricky Jefferies who pulled the attacker out of his vehicle. Albanese said: “On behalf of the nation, a little while ago, I had the opportunity to thank the Good Samaritan Ricky Jefferies, the local barber, just a couple of doors down from Helen’s electorate office, who ran to her help, and it’s a reminder that at the worst of times we see the best of the Australian character.”

Late Tuesday it emerged Nugent family members are friends with Haines.

Nugent’s father Rod, and Rod’s partner Christine Cunningham, said in a statement: “Helen has been our friend for more than 20 years and what happened to her yesterday is devastating and unfathomable”.

They said Haines “is a deeply respected, valued and much-loved member of our local community”.

“All of our love and all of our thoughts are with Helen and her family and friends.

“We would like to sincerely thank members of the local community and police who came to Helen’s aid yesterday after the shocking and horrific crime. We will be assisting Victoria Police in any way we can.”