The U.S and China are in the grips of an arms race, which has not been seen since the depths of the Cold War era
Chinese President Xi Jinping wants his armed forces to become a modern powerhouse by 2035.
In his eyes, they should be “fighting and winning wars” by 2050.
It’s an overt and confronting military strategy, at least that’s how the West perceives it.
In May, a reporter asked U.S. President Joe Biden if he would come to Taiwan’s aid militarily if a conflict ever arises. He answered “yes” at the time because “that’s the commitment we made”.
The answer was a change in the U.S.’ history of strategic ambiguity, and likely caused a stir among Chinese officials.
Pelosi is the most senior U.S. official to visit Taiwan in 25 years. This is an issue for Chinese officials who are committed to the ‘One China’ principle.
As China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Hua Chunying said “there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China.”
China has responded to Pelosi’s visit by test firing ballistic missiles near the island, which is home to over 23 million people. Taiwan has also simulated its defence capabilities, as Chinese Navy vessels remain in the Taiwan Straits.
China’s live fire drills sent ballistic missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone for the first time.
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-Wen said the military exercises were “unnecessary responses”.
How does China’s military stack up?
While we don’t know much about China’s military, we do know it is growing at a rapid rate.
In 2014, China overtook the U.S. with the world’s largest navy.
“The crisis will end at a time and in a manner of China’s choosing,” said Dr Michael Sullivan, who is an international relations practitioner at Flinders University.
The U.S. Congressional Research Service, which advises lawmakers and strategy, predicts Chinese navy ships will increase by nearly 40 per cent between 2020 and 2040.
Of course, the sheer size of a military does not necessarily correlate to its strength. For example, the U.S. has 11 aircraft carriers while China has three.
The U.S. also has more nuclear-powered submarines and larger warships.
As such, it’s hard to imagine President Biden risking a rather expensive aircraft carrier to end the current situation in the Taiwan Straits.
Beijing does not publish its military spending data but analysts believe the nation is seeking to fast-track its military capabilities through hypersonic missiles.
As the name suggests, these weapons are known for their speed. In fact, they can travel at more than five times the speed of sound.
China denies using these weapons but the West remains concerned because of their speed, and limited detection on radar systems.
The U.S. Pentagon increased its budget requests to $3.8 billion to develop hypersonic weapons for this fiscal year.
The nation currently uses cruise missiles but these are inferior to hypersonic weaponry because of their slower speed, shorter range and tracking capabilities.
How will this end?
China has not fought in a war since 1979 after a tense battle with Vietnamese forces.
This means Beijing’s forces have not been on show in the modern era, and it seems the West would very much like it to keep it that way.
“We await further political fallout between Beijing and Washington. Though there is no direct indication of what form that may take, diplomatic retaliation is one possibility, ranging from recalling the Chinese Ambassador in Washington to expelling US Embassy staff from Beijing,” Dr Sullivan said.
Costa is a news producer at ticker NEWS. He has previously worked as a regional journalist at the Southern Highlands Express newspaper. He also has several years' experience in the fire and emergency services sector, where he has worked with researchers, policymakers and local communities. He has also worked at the Seven Network during their Olympic Games coverage and in the ABC Melbourne newsroom.
He also holds a Bachelor of Arts (Professional), with expertise in journalism, politics and international relations. His other interests include colonial legacies in the Pacific, counter-terrorism, aviation and travel.
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