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The changing face of Americans of colour may mean the Democrats will romp into dominance in Washington in the future – but not the immediate future

Article 1, Section 2 of the United States Constitution provides:

“The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States …  Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States … according to their respective Numbers … The actual Enumeration shall be made  … every subsequent Term of ten Years…

Australia had its census last week and is conducted every 5 years.  In the United States it is done every 10 years and, as the Constitution outlines, the results determine how many Members of Congress each State can have, and how the population numbers affect the flow of taxes and dollars to and from Washington.

The census is decisive in determining the makeup of the House of Representatives in Congress – how many seats each State has, and which party controls each seat.

The 2020 census revealed some shockers – not only in trend but in quantum

The United States is fast becoming the United States of Americans of colour.  As has been often noted, demography is destiny, and America’s future is undergoing profound change.

  • The White population shrunk for the first time since the first census in 1790. Whites dropped by 5 million people, declining from 63.7% in 2010 to 57.8% in 2020.
  • The majority (52.7%) of those under 18 are now people of colour.
  • Hispanic population has doubled since 1990 and is now 18.7%.
  • Asian Americans also doubled over the same period, to 6.1%.
  • The Black population is steady at 12.1%

The United States is headed to be a majority-minority country by 2045

By 2060, today’s Hispanic and Asian communities are expected to double.

As Alan Abramowitz, a leading political scientist at Emory University in Georgia, which is ground zero in the struggle for voting rights in America, said last week:

“It appears to me that the demographic trends that we have been seeing develop over the past few decades and expecting to continue have accelerated. The size of the decline in the white population is stunning. The increase in the size of the multi-racial population is equally stunning. The United States is becoming more and more of a multi-racial, multi-ethnic society. The Trumpsters cannot be happy about this.”

In raw political terms, the population shifts mean that Republican-leaning Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Montana will gain 4 seats in Congress and Electoral College votes; while Democratic-leaning New York, California, Michigan and Illinois will lose a seat each. There are shifts in some other states. But it looks like a net gain of perhaps 6 seats for Republicans even as the White vote is in big-time decline.

Alan Abramowitz says that the US is more diverse than ever

As Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia has noted, “Of course it [the census] may fuel far-right anger rather than resignation”

Sabato is right.  These political dynamics will absolutely grip the state legislatures that draw the lines for their House electorates.  And here, the Republicans have a decided edge for now. 

Aa an Associated Press analysis reported, “The GOP will control redistricting in 20 states accounting for 187 U.S. House seats, including the growing states of Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, where the governor is a Democrat, but the legislature has complete control of drawing new electoral lines. Democrats will control redistricting in just eight states accounting for 75 seats, including New York and Illinois, where the loss of a seat in each gives them a chance to squeeze out Republican incumbents.”

The bottom line:  The redistribution of House seats driven by the census means that Republicans have added momentum going into the midterm elections for control of the House of Representatives

Today’s Democratic majority of just 4 seats in the House can be easily erased by the drawing of lines in Texas, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

This means that whatever legislation President Biden wants to get enacted must get enacted now, in this Congress, where the Democrats control both the House and Senate.  And that means Democrats must stick together and not let passions for “left” or “moderate” perfection in legislation frustrate passage of the Biden agenda.

Because they likely will not have another chance before the 2024 presidential election. But here’s the kicker:  The more concentrated White vote in states that have been Republican in the past two presidential elections means that the Electoral College is still skewed to Republicans, even as their share of the popular vote for president is expected to decline. 

Bruce Wolpe is a Ticker News US political contributor. He’s a Senior Fellow at the US Studies Centre and has worked with Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama's first term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He has also served as the former PM's chief of staff.

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Victoria’s Secret criticized for trans woman’s apology



Victoria’s Secret is facing backlash after issuing an apology to a transgender woman who had a negative experience while trying on bras at one of their stores.

The incident has ignited a debate about inclusivity and sensitivity in the fashion industry.

The controversy began when the trans woman, who remains anonymous, visited a Victoria’s Secret store to shop for bras. She reported feeling uncomfortable and discriminated against by store staff.

In response to her complaint, Victoria’s Secret issued an apology, acknowledging the incident and expressing their commitment to diversity and inclusion.

However, the apology itself has come under fire from both supporters and critics.

Some argue that the brand’s apology is insincere and merely an attempt to save face, while others believe it is a step in the right direction towards a more inclusive shopping experience for all customers.

The incident raises important questions about how brands should handle situations involving discrimination and whether their apologies are genuine or performative.

It also highlights the ongoing challenges faced by transgender individuals when accessing spaces traditionally designed for cisgender customers.

As the fashion industry continues to evolve, many are calling for a deeper examination of inclusivity and sensitivity, not just in policies but in practice.

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Has the Australian Defence Force become top heavy?



Despite a decrease in overall personnel numbers, the Australian Defence Force (ADF) has seen a notable increase in senior officers, leading to concerns about its top-heavy structure.

In recent years, the ADF has undergone significant downsizing efforts, resulting in a reduced total workforce.

However, a closer look at the numbers reveals a surprising trend – a growing number of senior officers within the organization.

The rise in senior officers has raised questions about the efficiency and effectiveness of the ADF’s hierarchy.

Critics argue that a top-heavy structure may hinder decision-making and resource allocation, potentially impacting the ADF’s operational capabilities.

Is the increase in senior officers a deliberate strategy, or is it the result of unintended consequences from downsizing efforts?

What implications does a top-heavy structure have on the ADF’s ability to respond to evolving security challenges?

Are there plans to rebalance the officer-to-enlisted personnel ratio within the ADF?

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India’s shift to coal amid declining hydro generation



India has been grappling with a significant challenge in its energy sector as hydroelectric power generation has experienced a sharp decline.

This shift in the energy landscape has forced the nation to increasingly turn to coal as an alternative source of power.

The dwindling water resources and changing weather patterns have led to a decrease in hydro generation, posing a pressing dilemma for the country’s energy sustainability.

With India’s growing population and expanding industries, a steady and reliable power supply is crucial.

However, the drop in hydroelectric power output due to factors like reduced rainfall and glacial melting has strained the nation’s electricity grid.

As a result, coal-fired power plants have become a more prevalent choice to bridge the energy gap, despite concerns about environmental impact and carbon emissions.

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