The changing face of Americans of colour may mean the Democrats will romp into dominance in Washington in the future – but not the immediate future
Article 1, Section 2 of the United States Constitution provides:
“The House of Representatives shall be composed of Members chosen every second Year by the People of the several States … Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States … according to their respective Numbers … The actual Enumeration shall be made … every subsequent Term of ten Years…“
Australia had its census last week and is conducted every 5 years. In the United States it is done every 10 years and, as the Constitution outlines, the results determine how many Members of Congress each State can have, and how the population numbers affect the flow of taxes and dollars to and from Washington.
The census is decisive in determining the makeup of the House of Representatives in Congress – how many seats each State has, and which party controls each seat.
The 2020 census revealed some shockers – not only in trend but in quantum
The United States is fast becoming the United States of Americans of colour. As has been often noted, demography is destiny, and America’s future is undergoing profound change.
The White population shrunk for the first time since the first census in 1790. Whites dropped by 5 million people, declining from 63.7% in 2010 to 57.8% in 2020.
The majority (52.7%) of those under 18 are now people of colour.
Hispanic population has doubled since 1990 and is now 18.7%.
Asian Americans also doubled over the same period, to 6.1%.
The Black population is steady at 12.1%
The United States is headed to be a majority-minority country by 2045
By 2060, today’s Hispanic and Asian communities are expected to double.
As Alan Abramowitz, a leading political scientist at Emory University in Georgia, which is ground zero in the struggle for voting rights in America, said last week:
“It appears to me that the demographic trends that we have been seeing develop over the past few decades and expecting to continue have accelerated. The size of the decline in the white population is stunning. The increase in the size of the multi-racial population is equally stunning. The United States is becoming more and more of a multi-racial, multi-ethnic society. The Trumpsters cannot be happy about this.”
In raw political terms, the population shifts mean that Republican-leaning Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Montana will gain 4 seats in Congress and Electoral College votes; while Democratic-leaning New York, California, Michigan and Illinois will lose a seat each. There are shifts in some other states. But it looks like a net gain of perhaps 6 seats for Republicans even as the White vote is in big-time decline.
Alan Abramowitz says that the US is more diverse than ever
As Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia has noted, “Of course it [the census] may fuel far-right anger rather than resignation”
Sabato is right. These political dynamics will absolutely grip the state legislatures that draw the lines for their House electorates. And here, the Republicans have a decided edge for now.
Aa an Associated Press analysis reported, “The GOP will control redistricting in 20 states accounting for 187 U.S. House seats, including the growing states of Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, where the governor is a Democrat, but the legislature has complete control of drawing new electoral lines. Democrats will control redistricting in just eight states accounting for 75 seats, including New York and Illinois, where the loss of a seat in each gives them a chance to squeeze out Republican incumbents.”
The bottom line: The redistribution of House seats driven by the census means that Republicans have added momentum going into the midterm elections for control of the House of Representatives
Today’s Democratic majority of just 4 seats in the House can be easily erased by the drawing of lines in Texas, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.
This means that whatever legislation President Biden wants to get enacted must get enacted now, in this Congress, where the Democrats control both the House and Senate. And that means Democrats must stick together and not let passions for “left” or “moderate” perfection in legislation frustrate passage of the Biden agenda.
Because they likely will not have another chance before the 2024 presidential election. But here’s the kicker: The more concentrated White vote in states that have been Republican in the past two presidential elections means that the Electoral College is still skewed to Republicans, even as their share of the popular vote for president is expected to decline.
Bruce Wolpe is a Ticker News US political contributor. He’s a Senior Fellow at the US Studies Centre and has worked with Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama's first term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He has also served as the former PM's chief of staff.
Musk-Led Department slashes DEI grants while Transportation Secretary seeks tech innovation.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), spearheaded by Elon Musk, has eliminated over $370 million in diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) grants at the Department of Education within just 48 hours.
In a post on X, DOGE revealed that 70 DEI training grants were terminated, marking the latest move in its effort to cut federal spending.
This follows another major budget reduction last week when DOGE slashed $881 million in Department of Energy contracts, including more than $100 million allocated to DEI programs.
The sweeping cuts signal a broader initiative under the Trump administration to curb what it considers excessive government spending.
Meanwhile, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has announced that SpaceX workers will visit the Air Traffic Control System Command Center on Monday as part of an effort to modernize U.S. air travel.
Duffy, who has been vocal about the need for infrastructure reform, stated that President Trump has tasked him with developing a world-class air traffic control system.
He has also called on American tech developers and businesses to contribute their expertise to the initiative.
With DOGE rapidly restructuring federal expenditures and the administration emphasizing private-sector partnerships in public services, the coming months could see further policy shifts.
Critics argue that these moves may reduce funding for key programs, while supporters praise them as necessary steps toward fiscal responsibility.
Oz Sultan, the Chief Strategist with the Sultan Interactive Group joins Veronica Dudo to discuss.
Delta flight crashes at Toronto airport, injuring eight – all passengers and crew accounted for, one in critical condition.
In Short
A Delta flight crashed at Toronto Pearson International Airport, leaving eight people injured, with one in critical condition. All passengers and crew have been accounted for.
The incident occurred on Monday as the plane arrived at the airport.
Images show the aircraft upside-down on the snow.
The flight had originated from Minneapolis.
Peel Regional Police report that eight people were injured in the crash.
One person is listed as critical with non-life-threatening injuries, while seven others have moderate to mild injuries.
Authorities stated that all passengers and crew members have been accounted for.
The flight had originated from Minneapolis.
Further details are not currently available.
This is an ongoing story, and updates will be provided as more information comes in.
China criticises Trump officials for removing U.S. statement opposing Taiwan independence, calling it a detrimental signal to independence advocates.
In Short
The Trump State Department removed a key phrase about Taiwan relations from its website, causing outrage in China. Despite this, a spokesperson reaffirmed the U.S. position on Taiwan remains unchanged and underscored the commitment to peace in the region.
This phrase was deleted last week, prompting Chinese officials to demand an immediate correction, asserting it sends the wrong signal to pro-independence forces in Taiwan.
In response, a State Department spokesperson clarified that the U.S. stance on Taiwan remains unchanged.
The U.S. is dedicated to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side.
The spokesperson also emphasised support for cross-Strait dialogue, with an expectation that differences should be resolved peacefully.
Chinese President Xi Jinping – Reuters
Sole government
The relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan has long been complex, as the U.S. adheres to the “One China” policy. This policy acknowledges Beijing as the sole government of China while not explicitly affirming its claim to Taiwan.
Due to this understanding, the U.S. does not maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, which is reflected in the absence of a U.S. embassy on the island.
China’s response highlights the ongoing tensions over Taiwan’s status and the delicate nature of U.S.-China relations. Overall, the situation underscores the challenges that arise from differing perspectives on Taiwan’s future.