Ticker Views
The Supreme Court triggers war at the ballot box next year
There is no video when the Supreme Court sits to hear cases before it. An inherently conservative institution, the presence of cameras is too jarring for most of the justices, who serve life terms
However, the audio quality is really excellent – and everyone following the abortion case in the US Supreme Court last week was rapt.
Was Mississippi’s law that banned abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy constitutional?
Could it be squared with two crucial precedents: the ruling, now almost 50 years old, in Roe v Wade, that established a constitutional right to abortion, and a 1992 ruling,
In Planned Parenthood v Casey that affirmed Roe and admonished that undue burdens in state laws could not impede access to abortion services.
What almost everyone listening in to the Court’s questioning of the lawyers heard was that the conflict between the Mississippi law and Roe was a direct one; that at least five justices felt that Roe should yield to Mississippi; that there was little appetite for a proposition from Chief Justice Roberts that the Court could uphold Roe and still permit the 15 week abortion ban to stand, as it just meant a shift of Roe’s window for abortion services from 24 weeks to 15; and that for perhaps the five most conservative justices – Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett – there was an all-but-explicit sentiment that Roe had been wrongly decided, and that the precedent should fall.
In other words, it appears from how the justices reacted last week was that there is a clear majority to at the least affirm the Mississippi law and likely to completely overturn Roe – that after 50 years of being on the books, a constitutional right to abortion will be severely limited if not eliminated.
If that happens, what happens next?
If the Court does overturn Roe, it would likely rule that abortion is not a constitutional right and that it is up to the political process to authorize it – or not. This would make the 50 state legislatures – and Congress – the ultimate arbiters of the availability and scope of abortion services.
That would mean that it would be up to Congress to pass a law for abortion services to be available uniformly across the country.
Eliminating a constitutional right that has been in effect for 50 years will be devastating to tens of millions of women across the country. This will provoke a most explosive reaction.
Aside from civil rights and racial justice, abortion is the most significant social issue in the country
The ruling in Roe was sought for decades by abortion supporters, and the repeal of Roe by the Court has been sought by abortion opponents for decades.
Every Federal spending bill has language in it over how Federal dollars can or cannot be spent on abortion services.
Every judicial appointment to the Federal courts is scrutinised and vetted for their position on abortion.
Especially over the last 30 years, this issue has dominated the confirmation process for those nominated to serve on the Supreme Court. Trump was resolute in championing his appointment of anti-abortion justices to the Court.
Trump got three of them approved by the Republican-controlled Senate – upending the Supreme Court’s political balance just so the Court would get to this day.
Since the Court will have shifted the abortion debate from the judicial branch to legislatures across the country, there will be an immense political reaction from coast to coast, and that reaction will be nationalized and carry over into the midterm elections for Congress next November.
Why? Because a state-by-state approach can be transcended if Congress passes a national law to protect abortion rights
While the Supreme Court might strike down Roe by finding there is nothing in the Constitution that provides a right to abortion services, it is not unconstitutional for Congress to pass a law protecting the provision of abortion services to all women in the United States.
Indeed, in anticipation of what the Supreme Court is deciding now, the House of Representatives in September passed, by a party-line vote of 218-211, the Women’s Health Protection Act of 2021, which provides:
“Congress finds… Abortion services are essential to health care and access to those services is central to people’s ability to participate equally in the economic and social life of the United States. Abortion access allows people who are pregnant to make their own decisions about their pregnancies, their families, and their lives,
“A health care provider has a statutory right under this Act to provide abortion services, and may provide abortion services, and that provider’s patient has a corresponding right to receive such services …”
The Senate could pass it too – if there are enough Democrats to vote to change the Senate rules to end the filibuster and allow a simple majority vote on this legislation.
As abortion rights are supported by 60 per cent of voters, suddenly Democrats have a huge accelerator of support in the midterms next November. The message: elect Democrats to Congress if you want to protect abortion rights.
If the Supreme Court overrules Roe, it will be war over abortion at the ballot box.
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The morning after the election here, President Joe Biden, in Seoul on the first leg of his first major trip to Asia to engage with the US’s principal allies in the Indo-Pacific, was on the phone to Anthony Albanese:
“President Biden spoke with Australian Prime Minister-Designate Anthony Albanese to congratulate him on his election as Australia’s 31st prime minister. President Biden reaffirmed the United States’ steadfast commitment to the U.S-Australia alliance and his intent to work closely with the new government to make it stronger still. President Biden expressed deep appreciation for the Prime Minister-Designate’s own early commitment to the alliance, reflected in his decision to travel almost immediately to Tokyo to attend the Quad Summit—a vital opportunity to exchange views and continue to drive practical cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. President Biden looks forward to a close partnership between our administrations that will benefit the American people, the Australian people, and the world, starting with consequential meetings in Japan this week.”
Bruce Wolpe on ticker NEWS
The foundations of the alliance are exceptionally strong, capped last year with the announcement of the AUKUS strategic partnership.
At any summit meeting between leaders, or when they get on a video call, what becomes so important is the resonance, the chemistry between them.
That deeper personal chemistry has informed the quality of the ties between several prime ministers and presidents: Bob Hawke and George H W Bush in the first Gulf War to liberate Kuwait; Paul Keating and Bill Clinton to establish APEC; John Howard and George W Bush on 9/11, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the US-Australia free trade agreement; Kevin Rudd and Barack Obama to get Australia into the G20; Julia Gillard and Obama stationing Marines in Darwin and the pivot to Asia; Scott Morrison and Donald Trump in alliance against China and exempting Australia from Trump’s trade wars.
It has not been all sweetness and light: Tony Abbott and Barack Obama famously disagreed on global warming, especially on its endangerment of the Great Barrier Reef. Their discussions were chilly while the globe warmed.
The new PM’s relationship with Biden will have a special dimension.
In Anthony Albanese, Biden will see someone very close to his life experience and values
- They both come from poorer backgrounds, and they know what it means for families to pull themselves up.
- They are both Catholic.
- They both strongly support unions and good union jobs. Biden is pro-union, pro-worker and pro-manufacturing. So is Albanese.
- They are both huge on infrastructure. It is Biden’s strongest achievement in Congress so far, and Albanese served as Infrastructure Minister for 6 years. They can talk planes, trains and broadband.
- Albanese has taken a Biden-style agenda to his campaign. Biden won office with Build Back Better and Albanese’s hopes are with A Better Future.
- They both support policies that have at their core helping working families not only with higher wages and good jobs, but also helping them shoulder the cost of living for childcare, education, medicines, and care for seniors.
- Labor is simpatico with Biden on climate, electric vehicles and renewable energy. In fact, an Albanese government can get more enacted on climate than Biden can in this or the next Congress.
Joe and Anthony will find themselves talking the same language. They already do. When they shake hands, the Prime Minster will say, “Everyone calls me Albo.” And Joe will.
At the end of the Tokyo talks, we should expect Biden to invite Albo to Washington, and for the PM to invite the President to come to Australia. They will want to spend more time together.
Australia is set to bid for the opportunity to host the COP29 climate conference, despite its lack of climate action recently
Australia’s opposition Labor party says it will bid to host the 2024 COP29 climate conference if they win the upcoming Federal Election.
They say it will be in partnership with the Pacific and Soloman Island Nations ‘if they want to.’
Australia has never hosted a United Nations climate conference but it could set them on the global stage as a leader in climate change action.
However, Australia has been dubbed a laggard on its climate change action and may not be equipped to host such a significant event.
“This is a real shift in Australia’s policy…For 30 years in the history of the United Nations Climate negotiations Australia hasn’t hosted a meeting… Instead it usually shys away from them”
richie merzian, the australia institute
Australia’s rocky relationship with the Solomon Islands will make the deal even more uncertain.
A recent security pact between China and the Solomon Islands has been finalised, meaning China will build a military base just Kilometres from Australia’s borders.
Australia has recently cristicised the Solomon Islands for its friendly ties to China and how that will negatively impact Australia’s national security.
Now the biggest question is do the Pacific, and the Solomon Islands, even want to partner with Australia at COP29?
“It’s a real opportunity for Australia to gear up it’s diplomacy, to demonstrate leadership of the global stage and hopefully shake of its reputation as a laggard on climate action”
richie merzian, the australia institute
Deadly heatwave
Climate change has reared its head more frequently over recent years, including wildfires, ravaging floods, and extreme weather events.
This comes as millions of people in India and Pakistan experience a brutal heat wave that has left hundreds dead.
The high temperatures have been surfacing for the last two months, with the Government unprepared to handle it.
The heatwave is causing wide sweeping water shortages, heat stroke, and power outages.
The region has reached its highest April temperatures in 122 years.
“Global warming means more extreme heatwaves, and longer heatwaves… It’s a sign of things to come.”
richie merzian, australia institute
Does the West need to fear China’s presence in the pacific?
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