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The ‘huge impact’ that will cause disruption to every business until 2026

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As the war in Ukraine remains chaotic, many key industries are feeling the brunt with unintended consequences

The world is facing severe supply disruptions. However, some countries are being impacted more severely than others.

Delivery speed is a key metric in supply chains and this has never been more essential when it comes to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are needing military aid as quickly as possible to combat Russian aggression – so with major disruptions, sanctions and a war, how is Ukraine getting supplies?

What differentiates military supply chains in comparison to commercial supply chains?

Peter Jones from Prological consulting joined a panel with ticker’s Brittany Coles and Holly Stearnes.

The supply chain expert says in military supply chain, it is absolutely critical that things happen the way that they are intended to happen.

Medical supply donations for Ukraine are prepared for shipment in a Vanderbilt University Medical Center warehouse off of Dayton Avenue Friday, March 11, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee.

“It’s a very big part of alternative forces strategies to disrupt the supply chain of their particular enemy, because that means then people aren’t being fed food and water can’t get through, let alone armament and other military types of support infrastructure. So there’s actually quite a significant difference at that first base level that people’s lives are at stake,” Peter says.

He continues to say the second level is in commercial supply chains, and at war time, nations tend to “open up the chequebook and whatever is required. So from a financial perspective, that support is given as much as possible with domestic commercial supply chains, that commercial imperative always has to be considered.”

How are goods transported to Ukraine and Russia amid war?

There’s sanctions on Russia, global companies boycotting. So what does the supply chain landscape look for shipping and also air freight?

Air freight to Ukraine

Peter breaks this down to two elements.

At a local level

Peter begins with Crimea, which is basically Russia’s major gateway, into their nation, and then out of Ukraine. These local areas will be enormously disrupted.

At a global level

Peter says Russia only occupies around about one and a half percent of global movement or product in and out of Russia.

“So that global level, Russia doesn’t have a big impact in terms of the volume going through the networks, and the Ukraine is only half a percent. So at that local level, it’s enormous, because nothing can move in and out, due to ports disrupted,” he says.

“But at an international level, that factor by itself is not going to have a huge impact. The follow on to that though, where the big impact will come into global shipping is firstly, the energy crisis as this is creating.”

Energy and employment crisis brewing at ports

Ships are one of the biggest consumers of crude oil in on the globe. With Russia being the second largest exporter of oil in the world, Peter says commercial pressure on businesses will impact global trade.

On the other side, there’s employment.

According to the global shipping chamber, around 15% of global seafarers within merchant navies come from Russia, a bit over 10% and the Ukraine a little under 5%. So that’s 15% of a global employment group coming from the two countries that are in conflict.

“Global shipping lines are going to get conflicted about their ability to continue to employ the Russian employees. And the Ukrainian government more and more is bringing as many of their men back into the Ukraine to look after the nation. So those two elements with is going to have a huge impact if this conflict goes on for any length of time.”

What about China?

Peter says global shipping is still a long way from recovered from the events of 2020.

When demand around the world just fell off a cliff, the shipping lines took the opportunity to retire their old equipment, because it was coming with new taxes and fees being applied because of emissions regulations.

Lockdown fears hitting global supply chains

“So they said rather than us applying those taxes and fees, here’s an opportunity, we’ll get rid of the ships demand came back very, very quickly and unexpectedly, but the ships had been retired. So that was one of the issues that led to a lack of demand,” Peter says. “Then we put up the overlay on top of that port shutting down, empty containers being in all the wrong places. All of those issues are still very present today from COVID.”

Now with the Ukraine situation having emerged and the wash back through to China, and the things happening there, these issues are just going to amplify even further.

The question is how long is this disruption going to go for?

So with global shipping, the general thoughts were until a month ago, maybe towards the middle of 2024, q3 2024.

Peter says the industry has really been thrown a curveball due to war and further lockdowns in China.

“If the Ukraine Russia scenario lasts for many months, then that timetable is going to get pushed right out 2025/2026.”

PETER JONES

The implication to that comes back to countries being able to get what they need in order to run the nation from government perspective.

Peter is based in Australia and says he has heard of quite a lot of talk about onshoring more manufacturing and becoming more self sufficient as a nation.

“So what these issues will lead to is just that conversation being amped up again, at government level and in boardrooms as they try and work out what their risk profile looks like in terms of how long we believe this Russia and Ukraine scenario is gonna last,” Peter says.

He believed we could well see a pivoting back towards much more national security from a manufacturing and a maintaining sovereignty perspective.

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ANZ job cuts spark banking clash

ANZ plans to cut 3,500 jobs, sparking debate on the future of Australia’s banking sector and employment dynamics.

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ANZ plans to cut 3,500 jobs, sparking debate on the future of Australia’s banking sector and employment dynamics.


ANZ has announced plans to cut 3,500 staff and 1,000 contractors over the next year, triggering a fierce debate between business leaders, unions, and government about the future of Australia’s banking sector.

The decision raises wider questions about the resilience of the business community and the role of politics, productivity, and technology in shaping employment.

#ANZ #Banking #Jobs #Unions #Australia #Economy #TickerNews


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1 in 8 households don’t have the money to buy enough food

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Katherine Kent, University of Wollongong

Around one in eight (1.3 million) Australian households experienced food insecurity in 2023. This means they didn’t always have enough money to buy the amount or quality of food they needed for an active and healthy life.

The data, released on Friday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), show food insecurity is now a mainstream public health and equity challenge.

When funds are tight, food budgets suffer

The main driver of food insecurity in Australia is financial pressure.

Housing costs and energy bills expenses consume much of household income, leaving food as the most flexible part of the budget.

When money runs short, families cut back on groceries, buy cheaper but less nutritious food, skip meals, or rely on food charities.

These strategies come at the expense of nutrition, health and wellbeing.

Inflation has added further pressure. The cost of food has risen substantially over the past two years, with groceries for a family of four costing around $1,000 per fortnight.

Who is most affected?

Not all households are affected equally. Single parents face the highest rates of food insecurity, with one in three (34%) struggling to afford enough food.

Families with children are more vulnerable (16%) than those without (8%).

Group households, often made up of students or young workers, are also heavily affected at 28%.

Rates are even higher for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander households, where 41% report food insecurity.

Income remains a defining factor. Nearly one in four (23.2% of) households in the lowest income bracket experience food insecurity, compared with just 3.6% in the highest.

These headline numbers are only part of the story. Past research shows higher risks of food insecurity for some other groups:

While the ABS survey can not provide local breakdowns, it will also be important to know which states and territories have higher rates of food insecurity, to better inform state-level responses.

What are the impacts?

Food insecurity is both a symptom and a cause of poor health.

It leads to poorer quality diets, as households cut back on fruit, vegetables and protein-rich foods that spoil quickly. Instead, they may rely on processed items that are cheaper, more filling and keep for longer.

The ongoing stress of worrying about not having enough food takes a toll on mental health and increases social isolation.

Together these pressures increase the risk of chronic diseases including diabetes, heart disease and some cancers.

For children, not having enough food affects concentration, learning and long-term development.

Breaking this cycle means recognising that improving health depends on improving food security. Left unaddressed, food insecurity deepens existing inequalities across generations.

What can we do about it?

We already know the solutions to food insecurity and they are evidence-based.

Strengthening income support by increasing the amount of JobSeeker and other government payments is crucial. This would ensure households have enough money to cover food alongside other essentials.

Investment in universal school meals, such as free lunch programs, can guarantee children at least one nutritious meal a day.

Policies that make healthy food more affordable and available in disadvantaged areas are also important, whether through subsidies, price regulation, or support for local retailers.

Community-based approaches, such as food co-operatives where members share bulk-buying power and social supermarkets that sell donated or surplus food at low cost can help people buy cheaper food. However, they cannot be a substitute for systemic reform.

Finally, ongoing monitoring of food insecurity must be embedded in national health and social policy frameworks so we can track progress over time. The last ABS data on food insecurity was collected ten years ago, and we cannot wait another decade to understand how Australians are faring.

The National Food Security Strategy is being developed by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry with guidance from a new National Food Council. It provides an opportunity to align these actions, set measurable targets and ensure food security is addressed at a national scale.

Food insecurity is widespread and shaped by disadvantage, with serious health consequences. The question is no longer whether food insecurity exists, but whether Australia will act on the solutions.The Conversation

Katherine Kent, Senior Lecturer in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Wollongong

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Inflation data impacts markets as stocks reach highs

Inflation data and tariff uncertainty loom as U.S. stocks near record highs ahead of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts

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Inflation data and tariff uncertainty loom as U.S. stocks near record highs ahead of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts

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In Short:
– U.S. stock investors face crucial inflation data amidst concerns over tariffs and bond yields.
– The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates following weaker job growth and trade uncertainties.
U.S. stock investors are facing a week filled with critical inflation data.
Uncertainty over tariffs and government bond yields complicates the market landscape. Despite a record high for the S&P 500 index, the recent monthly employment report revealed weaker job growth in August, prompting concerns.Banner

Investor focus turns to the upcoming U.S. consumer price index data, with implications for potential interest rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce rates at its upcoming meeting.

Market Risks

Concerns linger around tariffs, especially after a court ruling deemed many of President Trump’s tariffs illegal.

This has muddied the decision-making for corporations and investors. Higher long-dated U.S. government debt yields, which reached 5% for the first time in over a month, have also contributed to stock market challenges.

Despite a substantial 10% rise in the S&P 500 this year, traders remain cautious as economic releases could disrupt elevated stock valuations amidst ongoing trade uncertainties.


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