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The ‘huge impact’ that will cause disruption to every business until 2026

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As the war in Ukraine remains chaotic, many key industries are feeling the brunt with unintended consequences

The world is facing severe supply disruptions. However, some countries are being impacted more severely than others.

Delivery speed is a key metric in supply chains and this has never been more essential when it comes to the crisis between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are needing military aid as quickly as possible to combat Russian aggression – so with major disruptions, sanctions and a war, how is Ukraine getting supplies?

What differentiates military supply chains in comparison to commercial supply chains?

Peter Jones from Prological consulting joined a panel with ticker’s Brittany Coles and Holly Stearnes.

The supply chain expert says in military supply chain, it is absolutely critical that things happen the way that they are intended to happen.

Medical supply donations for Ukraine are prepared for shipment in a Vanderbilt University Medical Center warehouse off of Dayton Avenue Friday, March 11, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee.

“It’s a very big part of alternative forces strategies to disrupt the supply chain of their particular enemy, because that means then people aren’t being fed food and water can’t get through, let alone armament and other military types of support infrastructure. So there’s actually quite a significant difference at that first base level that people’s lives are at stake,” Peter says.

He continues to say the second level is in commercial supply chains, and at war time, nations tend to “open up the chequebook and whatever is required. So from a financial perspective, that support is given as much as possible with domestic commercial supply chains, that commercial imperative always has to be considered.”

How are goods transported to Ukraine and Russia amid war?

There’s sanctions on Russia, global companies boycotting. So what does the supply chain landscape look for shipping and also air freight?

Air freight to Ukraine

Peter breaks this down to two elements.

At a local level

Peter begins with Crimea, which is basically Russia’s major gateway, into their nation, and then out of Ukraine. These local areas will be enormously disrupted.

At a global level

Peter says Russia only occupies around about one and a half percent of global movement or product in and out of Russia.

“So that global level, Russia doesn’t have a big impact in terms of the volume going through the networks, and the Ukraine is only half a percent. So at that local level, it’s enormous, because nothing can move in and out, due to ports disrupted,” he says.

“But at an international level, that factor by itself is not going to have a huge impact. The follow on to that though, where the big impact will come into global shipping is firstly, the energy crisis as this is creating.”

Energy and employment crisis brewing at ports

Ships are one of the biggest consumers of crude oil in on the globe. With Russia being the second largest exporter of oil in the world, Peter says commercial pressure on businesses will impact global trade.

On the other side, there’s employment.

According to the global shipping chamber, around 15% of global seafarers within merchant navies come from Russia, a bit over 10% and the Ukraine a little under 5%. So that’s 15% of a global employment group coming from the two countries that are in conflict.

“Global shipping lines are going to get conflicted about their ability to continue to employ the Russian employees. And the Ukrainian government more and more is bringing as many of their men back into the Ukraine to look after the nation. So those two elements with is going to have a huge impact if this conflict goes on for any length of time.”

What about China?

Peter says global shipping is still a long way from recovered from the events of 2020.

When demand around the world just fell off a cliff, the shipping lines took the opportunity to retire their old equipment, because it was coming with new taxes and fees being applied because of emissions regulations.

Lockdown fears hitting global supply chains

“So they said rather than us applying those taxes and fees, here’s an opportunity, we’ll get rid of the ships demand came back very, very quickly and unexpectedly, but the ships had been retired. So that was one of the issues that led to a lack of demand,” Peter says. “Then we put up the overlay on top of that port shutting down, empty containers being in all the wrong places. All of those issues are still very present today from COVID.”

Now with the Ukraine situation having emerged and the wash back through to China, and the things happening there, these issues are just going to amplify even further.

The question is how long is this disruption going to go for?

So with global shipping, the general thoughts were until a month ago, maybe towards the middle of 2024, q3 2024.

Peter says the industry has really been thrown a curveball due to war and further lockdowns in China.

“If the Ukraine Russia scenario lasts for many months, then that timetable is going to get pushed right out 2025/2026.”

PETER JONES

The implication to that comes back to countries being able to get what they need in order to run the nation from government perspective.

Peter is based in Australia and says he has heard of quite a lot of talk about onshoring more manufacturing and becoming more self sufficient as a nation.

“So what these issues will lead to is just that conversation being amped up again, at government level and in boardrooms as they try and work out what their risk profile looks like in terms of how long we believe this Russia and Ukraine scenario is gonna last,” Peter says.

He believed we could well see a pivoting back towards much more national security from a manufacturing and a maintaining sovereignty perspective.

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RBA stands pat on interest rates as hopes dim for future cuts

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RBA stands pat on interest rates as hopes dim for future cuts

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney

The Reserve Bank kept the cash rate steady at 3.6% at today’s meeting. In its post-meeting statement, the central bank said the monetary policy board

judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious.

This pause follows three cuts earlier this year — in February, May and August, each by 25 basis points — which lowered the cash rate from 4.1% to its current level. Governor Michele Bullock said the bank is watching those previous cuts work through the economy.

Bullock stressed that while inflation has eased from its peak, progress remains uneven, and the bank is not ready to declare victory.

For now, patience is the safer course. The next big test will be the September quarter inflation report, due at the end of October. That release will go a long way to deciding whether cuts resume later this year or slip into 2026. Market pricing, once confident of a November move, now sees the odds as little better than a coin toss.

“By the next meeting in November, we’ll have more data on the labour market and inflation data for the September quarter,” Bullock told a press conference after the meeting.

Why the RBA is waiting

The monthly consumer price index (CPI) for August showed annual inflation rising to 3.0%, up from 2.8% in July. Although this is a 12-month high, much of the increase came from the expiry of electricity rebates — a temporary factor the bank had already anticipated.

Bullock has repeatedly said the Reserve Bank puts more weight on the quarterly “trimmed mean” inflation measure — a point she emphasised most recently before the House of Representatives economics committee. This measure strips out one-off price swings and gives a clearer picture of underlying inflation.

Even so, the monthly figures show the annual trimmed mean edged down from 2.7% in July to 2.6% in August. That suggests the underlying trend remains one of gradual disinflation (a slowing in the pace of price increases), despite the lift in the headline rate.

Bullock told reporters:

The monthly data are volatile […] I don’t want to suggest that inflation is running away, but we just need to be a little bit cautious.

Progress is not yet secure. Inflation must stay within the 2–3% target range on a sustained basis before the Reserve Bank can cut with confidence. Moving too early risks undoing hard-won gains and forcing harsher measures later.



Other data reinforce this cautious approach. June quarter economic growth surprised on the upside, showing the economy is more resilient than expected. Meanwhile, unemployment has ticked higher but remains low, pointing to a labour market that is cooling only gradually.

As the statement noted,

private consumption is picking up as real household incomes rise […] The housing market is strengthening […] Credit is readily available to both households and businesses.

Together, these signals give the Reserve Bank space to pause rather than rush into easing.

A big shift in expectations

The major banks have also adjusted their forecasts. NAB has ruled out any further move this year, dropping its earlier forecasts for November and February cuts and now expecting the next reduction in May 2026. Westpac still expects a November cut, but acknowledges the timing could slip.

Financial markets have also pared back their bets. Pricing once implied near-certainty of a November cut, but that probability has now fallen to roughly 50-50.

The September quarter consumer price index will be decisive: a softer result could revive expectations of an earlier cut, while a stronger one would reinforce the view that rate cuts will not resume until 2026.

With the economy stronger than forecast and CPI a touch higher, both banks and markets are pushing out the timing of cuts. The Reserve Bank’s message is clear: inflation must show sustained progress before policy can be eased. Until then, the next cut is a matter of when, not if.

Rates around the world

The Reserve Bank is not alone in being cautious. In the United States, the Federal Reserve delivered three cuts in 2024, but only made its first cut of 2025 in September. The European Central Bank has reduced rates four times this year, but has kept policy steady since June.

Political tensions, volatile energy prices and fragile global growth all add to the uncertainty, reinforcing the case for patience in Australia.

For households, today’s decision offers no relief. Mortgage repayments remain at an elevated level and consumer spending is weak.

Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank said it will remain data-driven and responsive to risks:

The Board will be attentive to the data […] focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.

For households, that means the wait for relief goes on. The next move is a cut, but today’s decision makes clear it won’t be rushed.The Conversation

Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Markets remain strong amid potential government shutdown fears

Markets remain strong as investors anticipate jobs data while ignoring government shutdown and tariff concerns

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Markets remain strong as investors anticipate jobs data while ignoring government shutdown and tariff concerns

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In Short:
– Major indices are near session highs, with the Dow up 382 points and resilient to shutdown concerns.
– Rising Treasury yields may challenge bullish sentiment, while upcoming economic reports will influence market direction.
Major indices are trading near session highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 382 points, the S&P 500 by 41 points, and the Nasdaq Composite by 100 points.
Investors seem undeterred by the looming government shutdown and new tariff announcements. Despite the challenges, markets appear resilient due to previous experiences with shutdowns.Banner

This coming week, markets should brace for monthly jobs data, assuming no shutdown occurs. Previous initial claims reports have lessened after reaching 263,000 on September 11.

Technical indicators show promise following a retreat to the 20-day SMA. The end of bearish seasonality approaches, coinciding with Q3 earnings season.

Market Perspective

However, rising Treasury yields could pose a challenge for bullish sentiment. The 10-year yield has increased over the past eight trading sessions and may close at a three-week peak.

If it stays below 4.25%, it could support ongoing bullish trends. A notable risk remains the potential negative impact of the jobs report.

Upcoming economic reports include pending home sales, consumer confidence, and nonfarm payrolls, all key to market direction.


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Crypto market plummets near $1 billion in liquidations

Crypto markets crash as liquidations approach $1 billion, marking a severe downturn in September 2025

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Crypto markets crash as liquidations approach $1 billion, marking a severe downturn in September 2025

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In Short:
– Cryptocurrency markets declined significantly, with liquidations nearing $1 billion and Bitcoin below $110,000.
– $442 million in positions were liquidated on Thursday, with Ethereum most affected, raising trader concerns.
Cryptocurrency markets faced significant declines on Thursday, with liquidations nearing $1 billion, contributing to a larger selloff that has cost the sector over $160 billion in market capitalisation.
Bitcoin fell below $110,000, trading around $111,400, while Ethereum dipped below the critical $4,000 support level, marking its lowest point in seven weeks.
The global crypto market capitalisation dropped by 2.2% to $3.91 trillion.Banner

Liquidation reports revealed that $442 million in positions were forcibly closed on Thursday, with Ethereum most affected, accounting for over $180 million.

The previous week saw a larger liquidation event, with $1.7 billion wiped out. Traders are concerned as a significant number of long positions were liquidated in this downturn.

Market Trends

Market analysts highlight a pattern of leveraged trading leading to cascading selloffs. Seasonal factors, regulatory uncertainty, and a strengthening US dollar contributed to the declines.

Despite the downturn, some large investors are taking the opportunity to accumulate assets.


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