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Post Market Wrap | Higher food and energy prices feeding higher consumer inflation globally

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Higher food and energy prices feeding higher consumer inflation globally

  • US underlying consumer prices up 6.5 percent over the past year to March
  • US Federal Reserve underlying core inflation target is 2 percent
  • Annual Eurozone inflation at a record high of 7.5% in March
  • RBA likely to raise interest rates in June following revised inflation forecasts in May
  • Australian markets well primed for return to normalised interest rate settings.

US CPI up 8.5 per cent in March

Higher fuel and food prices in the US have pushed consumer prices to levels not seen since 1981, adding to the pressure on the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates more aggressively than previously envisaged. The 8.5 percent increase in the cost of living in March follows a 7.9 percent lift in February. The US Labor Department’s figures for March showed that gasoline prices jumped 18.3 per cent, the largest gain since 2009. Economists believe that the war on Ukraine and related Russian export sanctions are directly responsible for the soaring energy and food prices.

The Federal Reserve, like all Central Banks, will focus on the underlying core prices paid by consumers, which increased 0.3 per cent from a month earlier, and 6.5 per cent from a year ago. Alarmingly, this compares to the Fed’s 2 per cent underlying core inflation target, which is the Central Bank’s “most important task,” according to the Federal Reserve governor, in a recent Wall Street Journal interview.

Making matters more difficult for American workers, wages are failing to match inflation. Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings dropped 2.7 per cent in March from a year earlier, the 12th straight decline, according to wage data released on Tuesday.

This situation creates a policy dilemma for the US Federal Reserve. The dilemma is that economic activity will contract as consumer spending declines in response to the higher cost of living, while simultaneously the Federal Reserve is forced to hike interest rates. Higher interest rates at a time of declining economic activity increases the risk of an economic recession. A delay by The Federal Reserve to increase interest rates now may require a catch-up in rate rises, further exacerbating the likelihood and severity of a US economic recession.

European Central Bank

The European Central Bank (ECB), as the central bank of the 19 European Union (EU) countries is grappling with a similar dilemma faced by the US Federal Reserve.  

Annual Eurozone inflation hit a record high of 7.5% in March, compared to 5.9% in February. Like the US, significantly higher energy and food prices have pushed inflation to extreme levels, as Russia’s war on Ukraine sends commodity prices soaring. The ECB is faced with a difficult policy decision at its next policy meeting on Thursday because the economic impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is much more severe in Europe, than anywhere else in the world. This is because Europe is heavily dependent on Russian gas for its energy needs and any threat to the supply of energy to European factories is likely to have a severe negative impact on economic growth and employment, as well as inflation. This heightens the risk for stagflation throughout the EU.

Like the US Federal Reserve’s policy dilemma, any delay by the ECB in hiking interest rates given uncertainty over the economic growth impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may require higher interest rates in the future at a time when the EU can least afford them. 

Implication for Australian interest rates

Australia is not immune from events impacting the US and Europe, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation. The 10-year Australian government bond rate presently yields 3 percent, up from   1.07 percent in August 2021 and 1.67 percent on 1 January 2022. The Australian bond market has spoken and is clearly signalling higher inflation and rising interest rates, from current levels. The Australian economy, buoyed by rising export prices for our major commodity exports, and near full employment, is in a strong position to absorb higher interest rates to deal with Australia’s rising inflation. 

US inflation is widely expected to remain near 6 per cent throughout the year, implying a rise of half a percent in US interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting in May. The market consensus is for a half a percent rate rise in May. The ECB and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are likely to quickly follow any rate rise announced by the US Federal Reserve next month. 

Accordingly, Australian households should prepare for the RBA to announce a quarter of one percent rate rise in June.  The RBA’s own inflation forecasts to be released in May are likely to lay the groundwork for higher interest rates at its first meeting immediately after it revises its inflationary outlook. A move to higher interest rates following an extended period of near zero interest rates should not come as a surprise to equity or debt market participants and is unlikely to have a major or lasting negative impact across all asset classes. As the old investment adage goes, “if it’s in the news, it’s in the price?” 

There are certain asset prices trading at elevated price levels that can be explained by low interest rates. However, quality assets with sound underlying fundamentals within a diversified investment portfolio, are likely to weather the shift to normalised interest rate settings in the year or two ahead.

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

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As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

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A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

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