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Post Market Wrap | Higher food and energy prices feeding higher consumer inflation globally

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Higher food and energy prices feeding higher consumer inflation globally

  • US underlying consumer prices up 6.5 percent over the past year to March
  • US Federal Reserve underlying core inflation target is 2 percent
  • Annual Eurozone inflation at a record high of 7.5% in March
  • RBA likely to raise interest rates in June following revised inflation forecasts in May
  • Australian markets well primed for return to normalised interest rate settings.

US CPI up 8.5 per cent in March

Higher fuel and food prices in the US have pushed consumer prices to levels not seen since 1981, adding to the pressure on the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates more aggressively than previously envisaged. The 8.5 percent increase in the cost of living in March follows a 7.9 percent lift in February. The US Labor Department’s figures for March showed that gasoline prices jumped 18.3 per cent, the largest gain since 2009. Economists believe that the war on Ukraine and related Russian export sanctions are directly responsible for the soaring energy and food prices.

The Federal Reserve, like all Central Banks, will focus on the underlying core prices paid by consumers, which increased 0.3 per cent from a month earlier, and 6.5 per cent from a year ago. Alarmingly, this compares to the Fed’s 2 per cent underlying core inflation target, which is the Central Bank’s “most important task,” according to the Federal Reserve governor, in a recent Wall Street Journal interview.

Making matters more difficult for American workers, wages are failing to match inflation. Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings dropped 2.7 per cent in March from a year earlier, the 12th straight decline, according to wage data released on Tuesday.

This situation creates a policy dilemma for the US Federal Reserve. The dilemma is that economic activity will contract as consumer spending declines in response to the higher cost of living, while simultaneously the Federal Reserve is forced to hike interest rates. Higher interest rates at a time of declining economic activity increases the risk of an economic recession. A delay by The Federal Reserve to increase interest rates now may require a catch-up in rate rises, further exacerbating the likelihood and severity of a US economic recession.

European Central Bank

The European Central Bank (ECB), as the central bank of the 19 European Union (EU) countries is grappling with a similar dilemma faced by the US Federal Reserve.  

Annual Eurozone inflation hit a record high of 7.5% in March, compared to 5.9% in February. Like the US, significantly higher energy and food prices have pushed inflation to extreme levels, as Russia’s war on Ukraine sends commodity prices soaring. The ECB is faced with a difficult policy decision at its next policy meeting on Thursday because the economic impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is much more severe in Europe, than anywhere else in the world. This is because Europe is heavily dependent on Russian gas for its energy needs and any threat to the supply of energy to European factories is likely to have a severe negative impact on economic growth and employment, as well as inflation. This heightens the risk for stagflation throughout the EU.

Like the US Federal Reserve’s policy dilemma, any delay by the ECB in hiking interest rates given uncertainty over the economic growth impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, may require higher interest rates in the future at a time when the EU can least afford them. 

Implication for Australian interest rates

Australia is not immune from events impacting the US and Europe, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation. The 10-year Australian government bond rate presently yields 3 percent, up from   1.07 percent in August 2021 and 1.67 percent on 1 January 2022. The Australian bond market has spoken and is clearly signalling higher inflation and rising interest rates, from current levels. The Australian economy, buoyed by rising export prices for our major commodity exports, and near full employment, is in a strong position to absorb higher interest rates to deal with Australia’s rising inflation. 

US inflation is widely expected to remain near 6 per cent throughout the year, implying a rise of half a percent in US interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting in May. The market consensus is for a half a percent rate rise in May. The ECB and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are likely to quickly follow any rate rise announced by the US Federal Reserve next month. 

Accordingly, Australian households should prepare for the RBA to announce a quarter of one percent rate rise in June.  The RBA’s own inflation forecasts to be released in May are likely to lay the groundwork for higher interest rates at its first meeting immediately after it revises its inflationary outlook. A move to higher interest rates following an extended period of near zero interest rates should not come as a surprise to equity or debt market participants and is unlikely to have a major or lasting negative impact across all asset classes. As the old investment adage goes, “if it’s in the news, it’s in the price?” 

There are certain asset prices trading at elevated price levels that can be explained by low interest rates. However, quality assets with sound underlying fundamentals within a diversified investment portfolio, are likely to weather the shift to normalised interest rate settings in the year or two ahead.

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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How much money do you need to be happy? Here’s what the research says

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Brad Elphinstone, Swinburne University of Technology

Over the next decade, Elon Musk could become the world’s first trillionaire. The Tesla board recently proposed a US$1 trillion (A$1.5 trillion) compensation plan, if Musk can meet a series of ambitious growth targets.

Australia’s corporate pay packets aren’t quite on that scale. Yet even here, on Friday it was reported departing Virgin chief executive Jayne Hrdlicka will collect nearly $50 million in shares and other cash benefits on her way out the door.

Research from the United States suggests people think the average CEO earns ten times more than the average worker – and would prefer it was closer to only five times more.

In fact, the real gap in the US over the past decade has been estimated to mean CEOs earn a staggering 265 to 300 times more than average US workers.

Australians think CEOs earn seven times more than the average worker and would prefer if it was only three times more.

But the real gap here is also much higher. A long-running study found CEOs of the top 100 Australian companies earned 55 times more last financial year than average workers.

So, how much money is enough?

People have asked this question for thousands of years. The ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle explained the idea of eudaimonia, or a roadmap of “living well”, saying it:

belongs more to those who have cultivated their character and mind to the uttermost, and kept acquisition of external goods within moderate limits, than it does to those who have managed to acquire more external goods than they can possibly use, and are lacking goods of the soul.

Aristotle’s philosophy doesn’t call on us to shun money or wealth entirely, but argues it shouldn’t become life’s sole focus.

Research over recent decades has come to different conclusions on how much money is needed to achieve peak wellbeing.

A US study in 2010 suggested wellbeing maxes out around US$75,000. This figure naturally needs to be increased today to account for inflation – which, if those research findings are still true today, would be closer to US$111,000 in today’s dollars. You’d also need to take into account the cost of living in your area.

Other findings suggest wellbeing may continually increase with growing wealth, but the increase in wellbeing from $1 million to $10 million is likely less than when someone moves from poverty to middle class.

A 2022 experiment studied 200 people from Brazil, Indonesia, Kenya, Australia, Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom who were randomly given US$10,000 (A$15,000 at today’s exchange rate).

It found people in lower income countries “exhibited happiness gains three times larger than those in higher-income countries”, including Australia. But that cash still provided detectable benefits for people with household incomes up to US$123,000 (roughly A$184,000 today).

Remarkably, the people in that experiment (explained from 4:42 minutes into the video below) gave away more than two-thirds of that money to family, friends, strangers and charities.

Valuing time and relationships

Decades of international research have consistently shown materialistic goals – acquiring wealth and possessions for reasons associated with image and status – undermine wellbeing.

This is because materialistic striving is often borne out of low self-esteem or tending to compare oneself negatively to others, and there is always someone else to compare yourself against.

People can get stuck on the “hedonic treadmill”, where they get used to their new level of wealth and the luxuries it provides and then need more to feel happy.

It’s also because the work needed to acquire that wealth can mean less time focusing on hobbies and with loved ones.

Harvard research tracking two generations of men and their children over their lives, going back to 1938, shows deep, meaningful relationships with others are key to mental and physical wellbeing.

American psychologist Abraham Maslow developed a “hierarchy” of people’s “needs” in 1943. This suggested “self-actualisation” – reaching your pinnacle of personal growth – starts by having enough money to cover the basics of food, shelter, and access to the opportunities needed to grow as a person.

In line with this, research has shown “time affluence” (maximising free time by paying people to do things you don’t want to) and “experiential buying” (for example, meals out with loved ones, going on holidays) can support wellbeing by helping people develop new skills, build relationships, and create lifelong memories.

It’s in most of our interests to close the wealth gap

Recent data shows economic inequality in Australia is increasing. This is particularly affecting young Australians, as housing becomes less affordable.

At a broader social level, research from the UK indicates that as inequality increases, social outcomes get worse. These include increased crime, drug and alcohol abuse, obesity as people struggle to afford nutritious food, and reductions in social trust.

What percentage of wealth do you think is owned by the richest 20% of Australians? And in your ideal Australia, how much wealth should the richest 20% own?

The most recent Bureau of Statistics data we have, from 2019-20, showed the richest 20% of Australians owned around 62% of our wealth.

As inequality gets worse, evidence suggests it will lead to social problems that threaten to undermine the wellbeing of the whole community.

The irony is those who pursue extreme wealth and benefit most from this inequality will not necessarily be happier or more fulfilled because of it.The Conversation

Brad Elphinstone, Lecturer in psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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France receives lowest credit rating due to crisis

France’s credit rating downgraded to record low amid political and fiscal crisis, raising concerns over debt and stability

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France’s credit rating downgraded to record low amid political and fiscal crisis, raising concerns over debt and stability

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In Short:
– Fitch Ratings downgraded France’s credit rating to A+, citing political instability and fiscal challenges.
– New Prime Minister Lecornu must secure budget approval amidst rising deficit and potential no-confidence vote.
Fitch Ratings has downgraded France’s credit rating from AA- to A+, the lowest ever recorded, amid ongoing political and fiscal challenges.
The decision comes shortly after Prime Minister François Bayrou was removed in a vote of no confidence regarding his €44 billion austerity plan.

President Emmanuel Macron has appointed Sébastien Lecornu as the new prime minister, marking the fifth leadership change in under two years.Banner

Fitch highlighted political instability as a key factor undermining fiscal reforms, with France’s debt now at €3.3 trillion, or 113.9% of GDP.

The budget deficit increased to 5.8% of GDP and is expected to rise, posing challenges ahead.

Political Instability

The new prime minister faces a divided parliament and must secure budget approval by October 7.

The far-left plans a no-confidence vote against Lecornu, complicating further cooperation on legislative reforms, with S&P Global hinting at a potential downgrade.


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Money

Trump moves to fast-track removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook

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The White House is set to fast-track a ruling on firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, just days before the crucial FOMC meeting.

The move comes as markets reel from surging inflation, weak jobless data, and global currency shifts, raising questions about the Fed’s independence and the stability of policy decisions.

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