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Post Market Wrap | Federal Reserve raises interest rate by a quarter of one percent

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Strong wages growth, rising employment and higher energy costs fuelling inflation 
  • Likelihood of 2 percent interest rate by end of calendar year 2022
  • Consensus is for 3 percent interest rate by end of calendar year 2023
  • Announcement widely anticipated and well received by market generally

US Interest Rate Rise  

The U.S. Federal Reserve board decided to raise the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter of a percent overnight to a target range of a quarter to a half percent. The Federal Reserve referred to strong employment growth and elevated inflation levels as the primary reasons for its decision. Reference was also made to the Russian invasion of Ukraine which is creating upward pressure on energy prices.   

The rate rise was widely anticipated by the bond market, which is why long-term bond rates barely moved on the announcement. The bond market has been telling us for months that we have an inflation problem, with long dated bond yields rising steadily in the lead-up to last night’s Federal Reserve announcement. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stated that economic indicators including employment and wages growth reveal that the US economy is strong.  These circumstances, while supporting a rise in economic activity, when accompanied by a tight labour market, call for decisive action on the interest rate front. In the view of FOMC officials, signs of inflation early last year were attributed to supply chain constraints brought about by lockdowns related to the global COVID-19 pandemic. However, their view now is that inflation is more broadly based, and the most appropriate response is higher interest rates.      

Why is the Federal Funds Rate important?

The Federal Funds Rate is the overnight rate at which the Federal Reserve lends to US banks and so is the benchmark rate at which banks lend to and borrow from each other. If this rate rises, US banks pass on this higher interest rate to their customers. This includes consumer and business loans. The ultimate outcome is less borrowing which restrains spending and this reduces inflationary pressures, because the ability to pass on price rises throughout the economy, is diminished.  Once the inflationary pressures ease, interest rates stabilise, enabling the economy to steadily grow at a sustainable rate. This rhythmic pattern is known as the economic cycle.   

Image: File

Market Implications

In its market release accompanying the rate rise, the FOMC stated it intends to continue raising rates so that the Federal Fund Rate reverts to at least the level that prevailed prior the onset of the global pandemic. The target date to achieve this is the end of calendar year 2022. This statement implies that the FOMC plan 6 more rate rises of a quarter of a percent, over the coming 9 months. This will take the Federal Funds Rate to 2 percent.  The bond market appears relaxed at this prospect, because it is widely recognised that the extraordinary decision to cut interest rates to zero at the height of the pandemic was always a temporary measure to deal with a one in a hundred-year event.  

Equity markets around the globe, including Australia, have also responded positively to the FOMC announcement of a sustained period of interest rate rises over the coming 2 years. This was exemplified by a sharp 1.5 percent rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Index and a 2.2 percent rise in the broader S & P 500 Index and a 3.7 percent jump in the technology heavy NASDAQ, as the FOMC decision was released. Australian markets are also higher today, with the ASX200 up 1.05 percent and the broader All Ords Index up 1.16 percent. History shows that equity markets tend to follow the economy, not the interest rate. This has been confirmed by the strong equity markets seen immediately post the FOMC announcement.

What’s Next?

Beyond the 2 percent target interest rate by the end of 2022, market consensus is for a 2.75 to 3 percent interest rate by end of calendar year 2023. Beyond 2023, present market consensus is that rates would not need to be raised above 3 percent. 

This scenario poses little or no threat to the medium-term economic outlook and should support equity and debt markets as well.

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

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Earnings reports, tariffs reshape market outlook this week

Earnings season heats up as tariffs and Trump’s policies drive market uncertainty, impacting major companies like Tesla and Alphabet.

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Earnings season heats up as tariffs and Trump’s policies drive market uncertainty, impacting major companies like Tesla and Alphabet.

In Short

Tariffs are significantly impacting the stock market, causing volatility and concerns over economic direction.

President Trump’s policy changes and upcoming corporate earnings reports are key factors influencing investor sentiment.

The stock market is significantly influenced by tariffs. Recent policy changes from the Trump administration have created uncertainty, particularly following a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs announced on April 9.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell approximately 1.5%, with the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average each declining around 2.6%.

This week, focus will shift to President Trump’s policies as several S&P 500 companies release quarterly earnings, including Alphabet, Tesla, and Boeing.

More than 120 companies are expected to report their results.Economic data updates concerning manufacturing, services, and consumer sentiment will also be key this week.

Market volatility continues due to concerns about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on major corporations and the overall U.S. economy.

A sharp sell-off occurred when Nvidia announced that U.S. export restrictions to China would incur significant costs. The situation worsened further following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks about the need for clarity before altering interest rates.

Market leaders express concern over ongoing uncertainties. Citi’s Stuart Kaiser highlighted the importance of positive news on tariffs for the market’s direction in the coming months.

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Powell: Trump’s tariffs pose significant economic risks

Fed Chair Powell warns Trump’s unexpected tariffs could harm economic stability, driving inflation and volatility in markets.

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Fed Chair Powell warns Trump’s unexpected tariffs could harm economic stability, driving inflation and volatility in markets.

In Short

Jerome Powell assured that the American economy is strong but warned that President Trump’s tariffs could disrupt this stability and lead to higher inflation.

He noted that uncertainty from trade policies is causing market volatility and consumer anxiety about rising prices.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed economic concerns during a speech at The Economic Club of Chicago.

He highlighted that the American economy remains robust, despite ongoing uncertainty and risks. However, he warned that President Trump’s significant tariffs may disrupt this stability.

Powell noted that the announced tariff increases are larger than expected, indicating potential for increased inflation and slower economic growth.

Market volatility

His comments came as Wall Street faced volatility, particularly in the tech sector, suggesting that market fluctuations stem from uncertain trade policies.

Powell acknowledged the challenge of making informed economic assessments given the unpredictable policy landscape.

He emphasised that uncertainty leads to market volatility, a sentiment echoed by industry leaders. The Fed chair pointed out the difficulty in balancing price stability and maximum employment as conflicting goals might arise from these conditions.

In response to anticipated price rises from tariffs, a recent poll indicated that 75% of adults expect increased costs for consumers. Economists suggest these expectations contributed to a surprising 1.4% rise in retail sales.

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Why India is emerging as the new global economic powerhouse

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With the world in turmoil from the trade war started by President Xi and escalated by President Trump, more exporters and foreign investors are looking towards the emerging economic superpower, India.

It’s no surprise. After all, India has a GDP of over US$3.5 trillion (A$5.8 trillion) spread across a massive 1.4 billion people. It is growing at an impressive 7 to 8% a year. But even with this large population, India’s economic projections are mind-blowing. India is already the world’s third-largest economy, and by 2035, its share of global GDP is projected to be on par with the United States.

On a purchasing power parity basis, India’s population is projected to be 1.6 billion people — easily the world’s most populous country by 2035 — across 29 diverse states with 640 million Indians living in cities. Hence, India’s emphasis on smart cities and digital innovation.

In terms of geopolitics, India is also becoming a major player on the world stage and has strong diplomatic ties with Australia through the G20, the Quad Leader Summit, and the East Asia Summit.


Back to India: A New Chapter in the Airport Economist’s Journey

So, it was time for The Airport Economist to return to India. I had filmed The Airport Economist in Mumbai pre-COVID and hosted the “Cricket, Collaboration and Commonwealth” conference in New Delhi in 2023. But this time, I decided to take a look at the mega-cities of Bengaluru and Chennai in the south of the sub-continent.


Bengaluru: India’s Tech and Space Hub

Bengaluru (or Bangalore) is the Silicon Valley of India. It’s the home of Infosys and a number of Indian IT giants, but also the centre of space, aerospace and defence.

According to Australia’s Consul-General to Bengaluru, Ms Hilary McGeachy, Australia’s diplomatic presence is strategically placed around India to account for local regional strengths:

“I think to some extent all of those posts have an identity, although we’re all here prosecuting whatever Australian business would like to achieve. If you look at Calcutta, it tends to lend itself well to the mining sector and Australia’s mining technology. If you look at Chennai, advanced manufacturing and education.Look at Mumbai, of course, financial capital. Look at Bengaluru — we’re here for innovation and tech that cuts across a lot of other areas as well. It’s got strong research, it’s got strong universities, but then it’s got this sort of start-up sector as well.”

Start-Up Superpower

Bengaluru is also strong in terms of start-ups. As the Consul-General explains:

“There’s over 100 unicorns in India, about 50 of them are based here. We see a large chunk of that venture capital that goes to start-ups come in here.I think for Australia, where that’s making a difference is we’re starting to see Australian businesses come and look at that ecosystem more closely. You’ve got Australia’s big banks here taking advantage of the digital capabilities in Bengaluru. Telstra’s been here a long time. Atlassian’s here. But it’s that next generation of talent.Could be entrepreneurs, could be fintech, could be cybertech. And of course, if you’re in aerospace or space or the digital world, you know — come to Bengaluru.”

Abhinav Bhatia, Trade Commissioner for Queensland, agrees:

“We chose Bengaluru way ahead of many other jurisdictions because we could see the rise of Bengaluru and Southern India many, many years ahead.Right now, Bengaluru is the powerhouse of technology, IT start-ups, biotech, quantum computing. Out of 120 unicorns in India, I think 30% of that is coming out of Bengaluru. That is massive.As India becomes more prominent for Queensland, we are expanding.”


The Space Race in Bengaluru

The space industry is a key part of Bengaluru’s start-up scene and of increasing importance to the Australia–India economic partnership.

Dr Goenka, Chairman of the Government agency for Space Promotion, IN-SPACe, told me:

“Until 3–4 years ago, there were hardly any space companies in India despite a strong space heritage in government-led science and research. Now there are 250 space start-ups in just 3 years — based mainly in Bengaluru.”

He also noted Australia’s growing role:

“We are perhaps farthest ahead with Australia. We started that at BSX 2 years ago and the head of the Australian Space Agency has taken a personal interest in how to work with Indian companies.”

Space Machines: Aussie Innovation Meets Indian Collaboration

Australian space start-ups are emerging too. One example is the Space Machines Company, based in Botany at the UTS Tech Lab. Founder Rajat Kulshrestha explained:

“It is our business to make sure we can, in space, get close to those satellites, understand what’s happening with them, protect them, service them, repair them. Bengaluru is a hub of all aerospace activity in India and the space tracking centres are in Bengaluru, so it makes sense for us to be here.”

Kulshrestha continued:

“For the last 20 years, there’s gone a massive transformation and it’s become a place where people are coming from different parts of the country to train on deep tech, AI, digital transformation and others. India’s got a heritage of low-cost manufacturing. It’s got deep space heritage. It’s emerging as a massive pool of capability and talent and so when we think about all of the ingredients of a great commercial and technical collaboration, you know — it makes for a perfect destination.”


Chennai: The Detroit of India and More

From Bengaluru, I flew to Chennai (formerly Madras), often known as the Detroit of India due to its large automotive sector. But it also has a major port, strong aviation links, and a large manufacturing sector with excellent education institutions.

A Manufacturing Powerhouse

Alex Paul, Development Commissioner of the Madras Economic Zone, noted:

“If you look at our presence when it comes to the global value chain, Chennai is a very important destination. Close to 83 to 85% of articles are manufactured in the province of Tamil Nadu. That shows the diversity of articles, the strength this province has in terms of potential investments, potential skills, and components being manufactured in one single province.”

As Alex pointed out, Chennai (and Tamil Nadu) attracts major foreign investors from car companies like ZF, Renault, and pharma giants like AstraZeneca.


Mahindra & Mahindra: Revolutionising Auto Tech

You see the large footprint (or tyre-print) of the local auto industry when I visited Mahindra & Mahindra.

Dr Velusamy Ramasamy, President of Automotive Technology & Product Development, shared:

“We started with the humble Jeep in the 1940s and now produce cutting-edge SUVs and EVs.”

He explained the importance of Chennai’s Mahindra Research Valley:

“We have about 6,500 people working here. When Anand Mahindra conceived this R&D centre, he wanted it away from the manufacturing plants and city pressures so that engineers could be creative and think four years ahead of their time. Chennai has important universities like Anna University and IIT Madras, plus 200 engineering colleges across the state.”


Australia in Chennai: A Strategic Fit

According to Australia’s Consul-General in Chennai, Silai Zaki:

“Chennai’s traditionally been a manufacturing and industrial hub for India with excellent universities. For Australia, we have a strong Tamil population and Chennai is on the coast, looking out at the Bay of Bengal — a strategically important area for us.”

She noted new industries emerging:

“If you bought an iPhone recently, there’s a chance it was built in Tamil Nadu. The region is also expanding EV production, investing in hydrogen and renewable energy, and was an early adopter of wind technology. Between Australia’s Future Made in Australia program and India’s Make in India, there’s a lot of complementarities.”


The Game-Changer: ECTA and Australian SMEs

The Consul General believes the Australia–India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) has “reset the mindset”:

“For a long time people thought India was too hard. But ECTA has been the driving force. It offers Australians a real advantage. We’re one of very few countries that has a trade agreement with India, and Australian companies should be taking advantage of what it offers them.”

One example of a successful Australian small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) is Callington. I spoke with the Regional Managing Director for India and Qatar, Sriram Iyengar, who explained:

“The history of Callington goes back to 1968, when Nick Schoulal, the current managing director of the group, started it all. He was just 19 then and decided he needed to do something quite dramatic in his life.At the age of 19, he started mixing chemicals. Without a proper space, he went to his father’s garage, took a few chemicals, mixed them together, and prepared a product. That was the start of Callington.Now, 56 years later, we’ve done remarkably well as a group and as an organisation.”

“We started off with fuel additives, and somewhere in the 1980s, Nick thought: why not venture into the subject of biosecurity and border biosecurity?That was a turning point for Callington, as biosecurity is a critical issue not just for Australia but for the world.Later, in the 1980s, Nick also decided aviation and aerospace were the future and put all his efforts into that space.In 2024, we now have 15 subsidiaries across the world, 5 manufacturing locations, and close to 160 employees — each one passionate about their role, all working towards the shared goal of making Callington a global force in aircraft disinfection and aircraft maintenance.And with Chennai emerging as an aviation hub, it’s perfect for India, Southeast Asia, and Qatar, which I have responsibility for.”


After Callington, my journey took me to TATA Consultancy Services (TCS) at their impressive Chennai campus. You can’t visit India — or many parts of the world, in fact — without noticing the influence of TATA.

As Ranjeet Goswani, TATA’s Global Head – Corporate Affairs, explained:

“TATA is the biggest and most respected business conglomerate in India. The group was established 156 years ago by our founding fathers, and TCS was launched exactly 100 years later, in 1968, as the group’s digital arm.Today, TCS is present in over 50 countries with over 620,000 highly trained technology consultants partnering with customers to improve their global competitiveness.We’re especially proud that 36% of this workforce is women, working side by side with partners in tech roles. Our global talent pool represents more than 150 nationalities.”

TATA also has a longstanding presence in Australia. Ranjeet continued:

“In Australia, we’ve been established since 1988 — 35 years now. We work with most of the top ten listed companies on the Australian Stock Exchange, and are deeply involved in key national programs around cybersecurity and digital infrastructure.The strategic partnership between India and Australia is particularly strong in science, research, technology, cybersecurity, innovation, and digital transformation. This was reinvigorated during Prime Minister Albanese’s visit to India in 2023, when both he and our Honourable Prime Minister Mr. Modi reaffirmed their commitment to collaboration.One initiative under this partnership is a very active Digital Working Group under the CEO’s Forum. It addresses the challenges facing digital markets, identifies new growth opportunities, and explores how our two sectors can expand further.On the Australian side, the group is chaired by Telstra, and on the Indian side, it’s chaired by TCS.”

Ranjeet also spoke about the group’s unique guiding philosophy:

“From the day TATA was established, our founding fathers taught us that the community is not just another stakeholder — it is the very purpose of business. That philosophy remains our torchlight. Even after the recent loss of our beloved Sri Ratan Chatterjee, we are committed to carrying his legacy forward. It is deeply ingrained in our DNA.”


Conclusion: Lessons from India

So, what did we learn from this episode on India?

At first glance, India can seem intimidating. After all, it is home to 1.4 billion people across 29 diverse states — including 640 million in its vast, teeming cities.

But don’t be intimidated. India has a parliamentary federal system with familiar institutions and a legal framework that make it easier to navigate for international business.

Many of its citizens are young, well-educated, English-speaking, and tech-savvy. They’re rightly proud of their nation’s achievements but also open to global ideas, cultures, and partnerships.

India is a confident modern nation that isn’t afraid to look beyond its borders for inspiration.

Tim’s Tips for Doing Business in India

  • India is vast and diverse, so pick your entry point carefully, based on your sector:

    • Finance or Film? Head to Mumbai.

    • Government Relations? Start in New Delhi.

    • Space, IT, Aviation? Look to Bengaluru.

    • Manufacturing? Chennai is your best bet.

  • For trading and investment:

    • Connect with the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, particularly Invest India, which helps foreign investors navigate India’s business environment.

    • Talk to the Australian High Commission in New Delhi, or the consulates in Bengaluru and Chennai.

    • Don’t forget your State Government trade agency (e.g., Trade and Investment Queensland).

  • Embrace the culture and do talk cricket — it’s a fantastic icebreaker. If possible, attend an IPL match — the colour, excitement, and sheer atmosphere make for an unforgettable experience.

In short: India has incredible charisma, and once you’ve visited, you’ll want to keep coming back.

And with global tariff barriers rising in the U.S. and China, India is becoming an increasingly attractive proposition for business.


Professor Tim Harcourt
Industry Professor and Chief Economist
Institute of Public Policy and Governance (IPPG), University of Technology Sydney (UTS)
Host of The Airport Economist — Watch on Ticker News

Special Thanks:
The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), Ministry of Industry and Commerce (India), Invest India, Indian Consulate General Sydney, and Trade and Investment Queensland.

The Airport Economist flew Qantas to India and stayed at the Hyatt MG Road Bangalore and The Grand Hyatt Chennai.

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