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Post Market Wrap | BHP’s March 2022 operational performance impacted by COVID-19

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Iron ore and coal production volumes and prices remain strong
  • Copper and nickel production volumes impacted by COVID related labour shortages   
  • Potash projects under development in Canada remain on track 
  • Merger of BHP’s oil and gas interests with Woodside Petroleum set for completion on 1 June
  • Skill shortages and overall labour market tightness expected to continue into 2023
  • Long term outlook supported by rising living standards, global population growth and future infrastructure expenditure on decarbonisation solutions.

BHP is a world leader in producing and processing mineral commodities. It has 80,000 employees and contractors, based primarily in Australia and the Americas. BHP is the world’s lowest cost major producer of iron ore. The Company also produces copper, nickel and metallurgical coal at scale and has committed to a significant investment in potash, a natural ingredient for fertiliser.  

March 2022 Operational Review 

COVID induced skilled labour shortages and wet weather have hampered BHP’s production activity during the March quarter, according to production volume details released this morning. However, record high prices for metallurgical coal and continuing high prices for iron ore are supportive of a satisfactory June 2022 financial year profit result.

BHP confirmed its original 2022 production guidance for iron ore, metallurgical coal and energy coal. The Company is taking advantage of record high prices for higher quality energy coal by increasing the proportion of thermal coal sourced from its NSW Energy Coal mine sites. 

Full year copper production guidance has been reduced to between 1570 and 1620 kt, from between 1590 and 1760 kt, and actual production is down 10 percent for the 9 months to March 2022, compared to the 9 months to March 2021. The reduced operational workforce, as a result of significant increases in COVID-19 cases, has resulted in lower production volumes from BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile. Similar operational workforce constraints in Western Australia have cut nickel production volume by 13 percent in the March quarter, compared to the March 2021 quarter volume. BHP has lowered nickel production volume guidance for the year by about 10 percent from original estimates.  

BHP’s potash projects in Canada are tracking to plan with the initial production target dates of calendar year 2027 remaining firm. 

The merger of BHP’s oil and gas interests with Woodside Petroleum is set for completion on 1 June, following Woodside shareholder approval on 19 May. 

Looking Ahead

The BHP earnings outlook remains cautious. 

BHP has previously flagged higher labour costs arising from COVID related skilled labour shortages and this cost imposition had been factored into market earnings estimates. However, BHP’s warning that 2022 guidance is subject to further potential negative impacts from COVID-19 during the 2022 financial year remains a lingering cause of concern. 

The Company also warned that market volatility and inflation pressures have increased further because of the Russian war on Ukraine.  Skill shortages and overall labour market tightness is anticipated to continue in the period ahead, in both Australia and Chile. Furthermore, BHP do not expect these conditions to improve until the 2023 financial year.

Although the BHP production outlook is facing short term headwinds, the long-term picture remains positive. Global population growth, future infrastructure expenditure on decarbonisation solutions and rising living standards are driving demand for clean energy, metals and fertilisers. BHP is leveraged to these global mega-trends, implying consistent earnings growth over the long term. 

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

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Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

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As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

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A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

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