The Middle East is facing a growing humanitarian crisis as renewed conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran sends shockwaves across the region. Families are fleeing cities, villages, and towns, leaving behind homes and livelihoods in search of safety amid rising violence. The UN refugee agency reports that thousands of people are on the move daily, particularly from Tehran and other affected areas in Iran.

In Lebanon, the humanitarian toll is mounting. Over 84,000 people are now sheltering in nearly 400 collective sites, while more than 30,000 have crossed into Syria since the escalation began. Evacuation orders affecting over 50 villages triggered a wave of displacement from southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Beirut’s southern suburbs, adding to tens of thousands still displaced from the 2024 conflict. Many are attempting to flee on foot with few belongings, seeking safety in neighbouring areas.

The situation is raising fears of a wider refugee crisis. European authorities warn that displacement of just 10 percent of Iran’s population could rival the largest refugee flows of recent decades. Turkey has prepared facilities for up to 90,000 potential arrivals, while the UNHCR says it requires $454 million in 2026 to support displaced populations across Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asia—but has received only 15 percent so far.

Geopolitical tensions impact global markets; Wall Street anticipates strong jobs report, affecting dollar strength and Fed rate outlook.

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are sending ripples through global markets, as investors weigh the potential impact on currencies, commodities and inflation expectations. Risk sentiment has been shaken, while energy prices and safe haven assets remain firmly in focus.

At the same time, Wall Street is preparing for the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls report, with analysts forecasting around 55,000 jobs added. However, market chatter suggests the figure could come in stronger, raising questions about the resilience of the US economy and the path for interest rates.

Steve Gopalan from SkandaFX, explains why the U.S. dollar has strengthened during the turmoil and what a surprise jobs result could mean for the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.

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