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How will U.S. markets react to the midterms?

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U.S. stocks are likely to enjoy an impressive rally this week, as Republicans look set to take the Senate

On Tuesday, U.S. voters will elect representatives for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate.

There are also a range of other positions like local governors and mayorships on the table.

Democrats may prepare for a watershed loss. However, investors are expecting a rally of U.S. markets.

Nigel Green from the deVere Group believes Republicans could take at least one chamber in these elections.

The deVere Group is one world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

“History teaches us that a sitting president’s party sheds some level of power during these elections, splitting the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. Government.”

“This typically results in gridlock as lawmakers are unable or unwilling to agree on major legislation, meaning that substantial laws are either not approved or significantly reduced in scope and impact,” Mr Green said.

U.S. President Joe Biden has urged people to vote Democrat amid rising inflation and cost of living pressures.

In September, the price of basic goods and services increased by 8.2 per cent when compared to the same time last year.

“This is not a referendum; this is a choice.  And the more people we get out to vote, we win. We win.”

JOE BIDEN, U.S. PRESIDENT

Mr Green said some sectors will be more impacted than others after Tuesday’s vote is complete.

“The status quo usually means that corporations can push on with their plans and investments without the risk of everything being upended by new laws and requirements.”

“Reforms to legislation on big tech can be expected to come to a halt due to the gridlock, which “represents upside for the tech stocks,” he explained.

Who is likely to be affected?

A Republican wave across the U.S. could be a win for major pharmaceutical and biotech stocks, which have already capitalised during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Democrats are pursuing a bill to lower prescription drug prices. Biden said the price of prescription drugs has been out of control for years.

“We pay the highest price for prescription drugs than anywhere in the world.”

“The prescription you have from a drug manufacturer in the United States you get at the local drugstore, you can get in a plane and fly to Paris, you can get the same exact drug for less—every other major capital in the world,” President Biden said.

A voter marks a ballot during the primary election and abortion referendum at a Wyandotte County polling station in Kansas City, Kansas, U.S. August 2, 2022. REUTERS/Eric Cox

Wall Street’s energy stocks could see gains if Republicans take either the House of Representatives or the Senate.

If this is the case, a Democrat-led windfall tax on oil producers could be blocked.

“I’ve released millions of barrels of oil from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, keeping the price down. It’s down about $1.25 and going down,” the President said, as he conceded prices need to drop further.

The oil crisis has been spurred by the war in Ukraine, as major economies like the U.S. and Britain sanctioned Moscow for its so-called ‘special military operation’.

Russia is the world’s second largest producer of oil. However, the west’s sanctions have cut Moscow from the global supply chain, and sent oil prices skyrocketing.

In addition, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), recently made the decision to cut its daily oil production by 2 million barrels.

The OPEC+ group is primarily run by Russia and Saudi Arabia. President Biden said “there will be consequences” over the recent decision.

The reduction has impacted around 2 per cent of global oil demand.

Oz Sultan is a former Republican candidate, who said U.S. markets will respond favourably if there is a sea of red on Tuesday.

“What we’ve seen from the Biden White House is an approach to green energy, which isn’t necessarily sensible.”

“A lot of what his [Biden’s] policy has been is too little too late, and it’s great thinking but if you don’t have sensible policy that affects the change that you want, it’s not going to happen.”

OZ SULTAN, FORMER REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE

Midterm elections have previously heralded positive stock market performances.

However, there are a suite of inflationary pressures and cascading events including the pandemic, conflict in Ukraine and global supply chain crunch, which investors are keeping a close eye on.

How can investors avoid the worst of it?

The U.S. President typically seeks to use the results of the midterms to boost the economy in the third year of their presidency, as part of their bid to get re-elected in the following year.

However, a divided government will make it harder for President Biden to pass his legislative agenda.

Mr Green from the deVere Group said investors should not underestimate the importance of a trusted investment strategy.

“Ensuring your portfolio is properly diversified is one of the fundamentals of successful investing.”

“Having a well-diversified portfolio across asset classes, sectors and regions means you are best-placed to mitigate risks and best-placed to take advantage of important opportunities.”

NIGEL GREEN, CEO OF THE DEVERE GROUP

The midterm report card is set to alter the course of U.S. domestic politics as the 2024 Presidential election looms large.

However, President Biden said there is also something else at stake: democracy itself. 
 
“I’m not the only one who sees it. Recent polls have shown that an overwhelming majority of Americans believe our democracy at—is at risk, that our democracy is under threat.”

“They too see that democracy is on the ballot this year, and they’re deeply concerned about it,” he said.

Costa is a news producer at ticker NEWS. He has previously worked as a regional journalist at the Southern Highlands Express newspaper. He also has several years' experience in the fire and emergency services sector, where he has worked with researchers, policymakers and local communities. He has also worked at the Seven Network during their Olympic Games coverage and in the ABC Melbourne newsroom. He also holds a Bachelor of Arts (Professional), with expertise in journalism, politics and international relations. His other interests include colonial legacies in the Pacific, counter-terrorism, aviation and travel.

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Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

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As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

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A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

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