How will U.S. markets react to the midterms?
U.S. stocks are likely to enjoy an impressive rally this week, as Republicans look set to take the Senate
On Tuesday, U.S. voters will elect representatives for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate.
There are also a range of other positions like local governors and mayorships on the table.
Democrats may prepare for a watershed loss. However, investors are expecting a rally of U.S. markets.
Nigel Green from the deVere Group believes Republicans could take at least one chamber in these elections.
The deVere Group is one world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.
“History teaches us that a sitting president’s party sheds some level of power during these elections, splitting the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. Government.”
“This typically results in gridlock as lawmakers are unable or unwilling to agree on major legislation, meaning that substantial laws are either not approved or significantly reduced in scope and impact,” Mr Green said.
U.S. President Joe Biden has urged people to vote Democrat amid rising inflation and cost of living pressures.
In September, the price of basic goods and services increased by 8.2 per cent when compared to the same time last year.
Mr Green said some sectors will be more impacted than others after Tuesday’s vote is complete.
“The status quo usually means that corporations can push on with their plans and investments without the risk of everything being upended by new laws and requirements.”
“Reforms to legislation on big tech can be expected to come to a halt due to the gridlock, which “represents upside for the tech stocks,” he explained.
Who is likely to be affected?
A Republican wave across the U.S. could be a win for major pharmaceutical and biotech stocks, which have already capitalised during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Democrats are pursuing a bill to lower prescription drug prices. Biden said the price of prescription drugs has been out of control for years.
“We pay the highest price for prescription drugs than anywhere in the world.”
“The prescription you have from a drug manufacturer in the United States you get at the local drugstore, you can get in a plane and fly to Paris, you can get the same exact drug for less—every other major capital in the world,” President Biden said.
Wall Street’s energy stocks could see gains if Republicans take either the House of Representatives or the Senate.
If this is the case, a Democrat-led windfall tax on oil producers could be blocked.
“I’ve released millions of barrels of oil from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve, keeping the price down. It’s down about $1.25 and going down,” the President said, as he conceded prices need to drop further.
The oil crisis has been spurred by the war in Ukraine, as major economies like the U.S. and Britain sanctioned Moscow for its so-called ‘special military operation’.
Russia is the world’s second largest producer of oil. However, the west’s sanctions have cut Moscow from the global supply chain, and sent oil prices skyrocketing.
In addition, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), recently made the decision to cut its daily oil production by 2 million barrels.
The OPEC+ group is primarily run by Russia and Saudi Arabia. President Biden said “there will be consequences” over the recent decision.
The reduction has impacted around 2 per cent of global oil demand.
Oz Sultan is a former Republican candidate, who said U.S. markets will respond favourably if there is a sea of red on Tuesday.
“What we’ve seen from the Biden White House is an approach to green energy, which isn’t necessarily sensible.”
Midterm elections have previously heralded positive stock market performances.
However, there are a suite of inflationary pressures and cascading events including the pandemic, conflict in Ukraine and global supply chain crunch, which investors are keeping a close eye on.
How can investors avoid the worst of it?
The U.S. President typically seeks to use the results of the midterms to boost the economy in the third year of their presidency, as part of their bid to get re-elected in the following year.
However, a divided government will make it harder for President Biden to pass his legislative agenda.
Mr Green from the deVere Group said investors should not underestimate the importance of a trusted investment strategy.
“Ensuring your portfolio is properly diversified is one of the fundamentals of successful investing.”
The midterm report card is set to alter the course of U.S. domestic politics as the 2024 Presidential election looms large.
However, President Biden said there is also something else at stake: democracy itself.
“I’m not the only one who sees it. Recent polls have shown that an overwhelming majority of Americans believe our democracy at—is at risk, that our democracy is under threat.”
“They too see that democracy is on the ballot this year, and they’re deeply concerned about it,” he said.
Disney trumps DeSantis with legal loophole
Disney has outplayed Ron DeSantis by leaning on a decades-old royal clause
In February, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis moved to take over Disney World’s governing body.
It was all in retaliation to the company’s public stance against the state’s “Don’t Say Gay” bill.
But now, new reports suggest this whole plan may have backfired.
Members of the new governor-appointed board argue the previous members stripped the board of its power before they left.
It was all part of an agreement, which was approved a day before DeSantis assumed more control of the land around Disney’s theme park.
Disney is leaning on a property law which essentially makes the company the government of the area.
New board member Ron Peri says the board has lost the majority of its ability to do anything beyond maintain the roads and basic infrastructure.
For just under six decades, Disney has operated its expansive theme park and resort in Florida under a specially designated district.
A board oversaw the area and had free reign of development processes.
Disney also had the authority to appoint district board members.
But this special status came under threat when Disney clashed with DeSantis and his “Don’t Say Gay” law.
Florida lawmakers the passed a bill in February to end Disney’s self-governing status and give the governor the authority to appoint new board members to the district.
DeSantis appointed five supervisors, including a parents’ rights activist and three Republican donors.
But the new supervisors say previous board members entered an agreement before they left their positions – effectively stripping them of any powers. #trending #featured
The Power of Play
Let’s take a look at the history of video games and the exciting future of the gaming industry.
From classic arcade games to the latest consoles and online multiplayer experiences, gamers have been lining up for decades to get their hands on the hottest games.
But what goes on behind the scenes to create these immersive worlds? The Power of Play takes you behind the curtain to explore the hard work and dedication of game developers as they bring these virtual experiences to life.
Avoiding mass company layoffs
What alternatives can companies implement, other than just sacking employees, to save something in the short-term?
Let me give you some numbers: Meta, 18,000; Amazon, 9,000; Disney, 7,000.
No, that isn’t the amount of daily subscribers joining the respective platforms, but the amount of job cuts each company has recently announced.
As sexy as that headline ISN’T – it’s a fact of reality that after spending too much during the pandemic, the financial books need to be reined in.
And yes, this may look good to investors in the short-term, but what does it do for the employee – and company morale – going forward?
Are there other alternatives that may satisfy all parties involved?
Digital transformation expert Kamales Lardi discusses the matter.
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