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Politics

Economy is behind the drift of voters to minor parties

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Economic pessimism is behind the drift of voters to minor parties and independents

Viet Nguyen, The University of Melbourne; Ferdi Botha, The University of Melbourne, and Kyle Peyton, The University of Melbourne

Growing economic pessimism appears to have pushed many voters away from Australia’s two major parties, Labor and the Coalition. Support for minor parties and independents has doubled since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

In the latest federal election, minor parties and independents are on track to gain a record share of the vote, at 33.4%. Although Labor won just 34.6% and the Coalition 32% of first preferences, Labor secured a majority after preference flows, reflecting a broader shift away from the major parties.

Commentary in both Australian media and in the United States framed the result as a reaction against US President Donald Trump’s return to politics. That echoed analysis of Canada’s surprise centre-left Liberal party win a week earlier.

But a more straightforward explanation lies in Australian voters’ dissatisfaction with economic conditions.

In a new study, we used three decades of data from the leading monthly consumer sentiment survey, the Consumer Attitudes, Sentiments and Expectations in Australia (CASiE) Survey, to study how shifts in economic expectations align with changes in voting behaviour.

Support for minor parties and independents has been rising

In the 2007 federal election, minor parties and independents won just 15% of first‑preference votes and two seats in the House of Representatives. By 2022 their primary vote had doubled to 31.7%, delivering a record 16 seats.

In the latest federal election, their first‑preference share rose further to 33.4% (as of May 14). But because of preference flows, they secured fewer lower house seats than in 2022. The underlying shift away from the major parties therefore continues, even though it is not reflected in seat numbers.

This realignment has unfolded alongside a sustained slide in political trust. Surveys such as the Australian Election Study show satisfaction with democracy is at its lowest level on record.

The decline is often linked to perceptions of poor economic management, leadership instability, and unresponsive government. Voters repeatedly cite housing affordability, cost‑of‑living pressures and difficulty accessing health care as unmet concerns.

Minor party support differs across demographic groups

The shift away from the political mainstream is broadly distributed across demographic groups, indicating widespread economic disaffection rather than isolated grievances.

Younger Australians, facing acute economic challenges, have increasingly supported the Greens. Older voters have turned to One Nation and Teals amid broader dissatisfaction with economic management.

Support for minor parties and independents has climbed among both men and women, though the pattern differs. Women lean more toward the Greens; men more toward other minors and independents.

Economic pessimism matters at the ballot box

Rising economic pessimism, along with other social and cultural factors, has been a driving force behind the collapse in support for the political mainstream.

Since 2010, the average share of Australians saying their finances have improved over the past 12 months fell from 27% to 20%. The share reporting deterioration increased from 34% to 37%. That means a net shift of 10 percentage points toward pessimism.

Looking ahead, more Australians expect their household finances and the national economy to worsen over the next year than to improve.

The charts below show support for minor parties has climbed across the board since the mid‑2010s. It is consistently highest among voters who expect their household finances and the national economy to get worse.

Voters who feel worse off have consistently been more inclined to back minor parties or independents. The gap between pessimists and optimists has widened under both Coalition and Labor administrations.

The divergence is most pronounced for expectations about national economic conditions. This suggests political disaffection is increasingly linked to pessimism about Australia’s economic outlook.

Growing economic pessimism is consistent with a broader picture of weaker economic growth, lower living standards, a fall in productivity and slower wage growth over the past decade.

For example, economic growth (gross domestic product or GDP after inflation) slowed from an average of 3.5% between 1995 and 2009 to 2.4% between 2010 and 2024. Growth in GDP per person, a more direct measure of living standards, slowed even more, from an average of 2.1% to just 0.9%.

Since both actual and perceived economic conditions influence voting choices, collapsing support for mainstream political parties is perhaps no surprise.

Voters are increasingly drifting towards the minor parties.
Ymgerman/Shutterstock

Implications for the future

Because of the complex flow of voting preferences, a smaller vote share going to major parties does not always translate into fewer seats in parliament. However, vote shares and seat counts tend to be highly correlated over time.

Sustained declines in primary vote shares going to the major parties will eventually translate into reduced legislative power.

The trends in Australia’s voting patterns are consistent with voters’ growing dissatisfaction with the performance of successive governments.

While the rise of non-mainstream parties may signal political renewal, it also carries risks. In the absence of credible responses to persistent social and economic challenges, political resentment is likely to deepen.

Decades of policy responses have failed to address the scale or structural nature of the country’s economic problems. This has contributed to mounting pressures.

Without meaningful reform, Australia risks following the trajectory seen in parts of Europe and the US, where the weakening of mainstream parties has created space for more radical and anti-democratic political movements.

Viet Nguyen, Principal Research Fellow, Macroeconomics Research Program, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne; Ferdi Botha, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, and Kyle Peyton, Senior research fellow, The University of Melbourne

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Politics

Macron’s Prime Minister resigns after just one month

Macron’s latest prime minister resigns after just a month amid growing fiscal challenges and government instability in France

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Macron’s latest prime minister resigns after just a month amid growing fiscal challenges and government instability in France

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In Short:
– Sébastien Lecornu resigned as Prime Minister after less than a month, the shortest tenure in Fifth Republic history.
– His departure reflects Macron’s ongoing challenges in securing a stable government amid economic difficulties and political division.
Sébastien Lecornu has resigned as France’s Prime Minister after less than a month, marking the briefest tenure in the country’s Fifth Republic.His departure highlights President Emmanuel Macron’s ongoing difficulties in establishing a stable government amid worsening fiscal conditions.

Lecornu, the fourth prime minister to resign under Macron, faced the challenge of addressing a significant budget deficit while managing a divided National Assembly.

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France’s rising borrowing costs reflect its economic troubles. The CAC 40 index dropped by 2%, and the yield on 10-year bonds climbed to 3.6%. Critics, including Jordan Bardella of the National Rally, are calling for the dissolution of the National Assembly, arguing that such action is necessary for stability.

Upcoming elections could further weaken Macron’s legislative power. His earlier decision to dissolve parliament led to fragmentation, with left-wing and far-right parties gaining strength at the expense of Macron’s centrist coalition.

Government Instability

Lecornu was appointed after François Bayrou’s government collapsed. Bayrou faced backlash for proposing cuts to public spending, intensifying fiscal issues. Lecornu aimed to reform the approach of previous administrations but faced opposition from both ends of the political spectrum.

Rather than seeking cooperation, he appointed familiar figures from previous governments, drawing criticism from conservatives and leftists alike. Macron has been hesitant to engage with the leftist coalition that won the most votes in recent elections, complicating efforts to establish a governing majority.


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Newspoll shows divided opinions on rising house prices

Newspoll shows divided opinions on Australian house prices as government support raises expectations for market increase

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Newspoll shows divided opinions on Australian house prices as government support raises expectations for market increase

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In Short:
– Newspoll reveals a divide among Australians on house prices, with 34% wanting increases and 30% preferring stability.
– The Albanese government plans to build 1.2 million homes by 2029 to address housing supply issues.
Newspoll indicates a split among Australians regarding house prices over the next three years. More voters support an increase in home values than those who prefer stability or a decrease.
This comes as expectations rise due to government support aimed at aiding first-home buyers.The survey, conducted for The Australian, shows that 34% of respondents want prices to rise, while 30% want them to stay the same and another 30% wish for a decrease. A notable 6% had no preference.

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Divisions among the population are evident, especially between those with mortgages and renters. The Albanese government aims to address housing by pledging to build 1.2 million homes by 2029, but opinions on property prices are divided.

Most respondents aged 18-34 are in favour of dropping house prices, contrasting with older demographics more supportive of value increases. Rental households predominantly desire lower prices, in stark contrast to homeowners. Support for rising prices is stronger among Coalition voters and those who support independents.

Government Response

Prime Minister Albanese noted the government’s expansion of the Home Guarantee Scheme aims to ease access for first-home buyers. He highlighted the scheme’s minimal impact on price increases, despite a slight projected rise.

Albanese addressed housing supply challenges mentioned by Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock, stating that building takes time. He underscored ongoing efforts to boost housing stock through initiatives, including the Build to Rent scheme and renovation of unoccupied homes.


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Takaichi aims for Japan’s first female prime minister

Sanae Takaichi breaks barriers to lead Japan’s ruling party, poised to become the first female prime minister

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Sanae Takaichi breaks barriers to lead Japan’s ruling party, poised to become the first female prime minister

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In Short:
– Sanae Takaichi aims to become Japan’s first female prime minister, leading the ruling party amidst conservative policies.
– Her nationalistic views and opposition to same-sex marriage could alienate voters and challenge her leadership.
Sanae Takaichi emerged victorious in the male-dominated race to lead Japan’s ruling party, positioning herself to potentially become the country’s first female prime minister.
Takaichi’s conservative stance and fiscal policies have raised concerns among investors regarding her plans for an expansionist fiscal agenda.
Despite her background as a heavy metal fan, her nationalistic views may provoke tensions with China.Banner

With previous leadership attempts, Takaichi intends to gain parliamentary approval to replace Shigeru Ishiba. Although she belongs to the largest ruling party, the coalition currently lacks a clear majority following recent election losses.

Hosting a meeting with former President Donald Trump is anticipated as one of her early initiatives.

Takaichi is known for her admiration of Margaret Thatcher, discussing their meeting shortly before Thatcher’s passing in 2013. As a drummer, Takaichi’s personality may resonate with voters, though her nationalistic policies, including potential alterations to Japan’s constitution, could alienate some.

Potential Challenges

While Takaichi advocates for increased gender diversity in her cabinet, her conservative policies may alienate female voters.

She stands against same-sex marriage and the option for separate surnames for married couples, stances not widely supported by the public. Economically, Takaichi promotes ‘Abenomics’, pushing for increased spending amid rising living costs and opposing the Bank of Japan’s interest rate adjustments.


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