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How much higher do rates need to cut to kill inflation?

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Australia’s economy has been rocked by inflationary pressures in recent years, prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to implement a series of interest rate hikes.

The latest interest rate hike, the 12th since April 2022, has raised the official cash rate target by 25 basis points from 3.85% to 4.10%. This move is aimed at curbing the stubbornly high rate of inflation and bringing it back within the RBA’s target range.

Former RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, has stated that the cost of living in Australia remains high, and it will take some time for inflation to return to the target range.

Meanwhile, the Fair Work Commission (FWC) has announced an increase in the National Minimum Wage to $882.80 per week or $23.23 per hour. This is an increase of 5.75%, just below the rate of inflation, which currently stands at 7%.

The relationship between the FWC’s decision to increase the minimum wage and its potential impact on inflation control measures implemented by the RBA has raised concerns in the market.

Some argue that the two entities are at odds. While the minimum wage is an essential policy tool to address income inequality and ensure fair compensation for low-wage workers, its influence on the broader economy, especially its relationship to inflation control measures such as interest rate adjustments, is a topic of ongoing debate.

It is true that an increase in the minimum wage can lead to higher consumer purchasing power and increased aggregate demand, which may fuel inflationary pressures.

This could increase labour costs for businesses, resulting in higher production costs and ultimately higher prices for goods and services, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures.

This can trigger a wage-price spiral, where Australian workers demand further wage increases to maintain their purchasing power, leading to a cycle of rising prices and wages.

The RBA typically utilises interest rate adjustments as a primary tool to control inflation.

However, increasing the minimum wage may complicate the effectiveness of these measures due to the potential impacts on inflation expectations and wage dynamics.

If expectations of future inflation rise, interest rate measures may need to be adjusted more aggressively to maintain price stability.

However, if minimum wage hikes alter wage-price dynamics disproportionately to productivity, inflationary pressures may persist, requiring even more robust interest rate measures.

Some studies suggest that minimum wage hikes can lead to short-term increases in inflation, but these effects are often transitory and dissipate over time as other economic forces come into play.

Therefore, the long-term impact on interest rate measures to curb inflation appears to be limited. Other factors such as productivity growth, fiscal policies, and global economic conditions have more significant influences on Australia’s inflation dynamics.

The federal government who advocated for a pay increase for Australia’s lowest-paid workers should consider the broader macroeconomic context when evaluating the impact of minimum wage increases on inflation and interest rate measures.

Historically, there have been instances where increasing minimum wages have coincided with periods of inflation. However, while the minimum wage hike may have both direct and indirect effects on inflation dynamics, the long-term impact on interest rate measures to curb inflation some see as limited, whilst others warn it could tip Australia into recession.

Whatever the opinion it is clear that policymakers must adopt a comprehensive approach that considers the multifaceted drivers of inflation whilst protecting Australia’s most economically vulnerable, when formulating policies related to minimum wage adjustments.

Money

New Zealand experiences unexpected economic growth surge

New Zealand economy sees 1.1% growth in third quarter, surpassing forecasts and signalling broad recovery after earlier contraction

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New Zealand economy sees 1.1% growth in third quarter, surpassing forecasts and signalling broad recovery after earlier contraction

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In Short:
– New Zealand’s economy grew by 1.1% in Q3, exceeding expectations after a mid-year contraction.
– Fourteen industries reported gains, with business services and manufacturing leading the growth at 2.2%.

New Zealand’s economy bounced back in the third quarter, growing by 1.1% and exceeding forecasts of 0.9%. This follows a revised 1.0% contraction in Q2, signaling a clear turnaround. According to Statistics New Zealand, 14 out of 16 industries reported growth, with business services and manufacturing leading the charge. Construction also picked up, rising by 1.7%, while exports were boosted by strong dairy and meat sales.

Retail spending showed robust gains, especially in categories sensitive to interest rates, including a 9.8% increase in electrical goods and a 7.2% jump in motor vehicle parts. Despite the positive quarter-on-quarter growth, the economy was still 0.5% lower than the same period last year, with telecommunications and education the only sectors experiencing declines.

Cautiously optimistic, Reserve Bank Governor Anna Breman noted that monetary policy will continue to depend on incoming data, as financial conditions have tightened beyond earlier projections. While positive GDP numbers support current low rates, the services sector—comprising two-thirds of GDP—has contracted for 21 consecutive months, suggesting the recovery may remain uneven.


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US economy grows 4.3% in Q3, exceeding forecasts

US economy grows 4.3% in Q3 2025, surpassing forecasts despite inflation and shutdown challenges

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US economy grows 4.3% in Q3 2025, surpassing forecasts despite inflation and shutdown challenges

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In Short:
– The US economy grew by 4.3 percent in Q3 2025, exceeding forecasts and showing consumer resilience.
– Consumer spending rose by 3.5 percent, with increases in healthcare and recreational goods driving growth.

The US economy grew at a robust annual rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025, exceeding forecasts and marking its strongest quarterly expansion in two years. This growth comes despite lingering inflation concerns and political instability, showing that American consumers are continuing to spend and drive economic momentum.

Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of the economy, jumped 3.5% in the quarter, up from 2.5% previously. Much of this increase was fueled by healthcare expenditures, including hospital and outpatient services, along with purchases of recreational goods and vehicles. Exports surged 8.8%, while imports fell 4.7%, giving net economic activity a boost, and government spending bounced back 2.2% after a slight decline in Q2.

Remains optimistic

Despite the strong growth, inflation remains in focus. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.8%, up from 2.1%, with core PCE also climbing. Economists are closely watching the job market and tariff-related pressures. Meanwhile, the recent federal “Schumer shutdown” is expected to slow Q4 growth, potentially trimming GDP by 1 to 2 percentage points. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, however, remains optimistic that 2025 will still reach a 3% growth rate.

The Q3 numbers are also influencing expectations for the Federal Reserve. Analysts now see an 85% probability that interest rates will remain stable at the January 2026 meeting. Steady rates could provide a measure of certainty for investors, businesses, and consumers alike as they make decisions heading into 2026. Overall, the data paints a picture of a resilient US economy navigating both challenges and opportunities.


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Laurene Powell Jobs exits Monumental Sports ownership completely

Laurene Powell Jobs sells her stake in Monumental Sports & Entertainment to Arctos Partners and QIA for $7.2 billion

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Laurene Powell Jobs sells her stake in Monumental Sports & Entertainment to Arctos Partners and QIA for $7.2 billion

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In Short:
– Laurene Powell Jobs sold her stake in Monumental Sports & Entertainment to Arctos Partners and Qatar Investment Authority.
– The deal values the enterprise at £7.2 billion, ending her eight-year involvement.

Billionaire Laurene Powell Jobs has officially exited Monumental Sports & Entertainment, selling her entire stake to private equity firm Arctos Partners and the Qatar Investment Authority. The transaction values the company at $7.2 billion, ending Powell Jobs’s eight-year involvement that began in 2017.

Monumental Sports owns the NBA’s Washington Wizards, NHL’s Washington Capitals, WNBA’s Washington Mystics, Capital One Arena, and Monumental Sports Network. Arctos Partners joins as a new minority investor, while QIA increases its ownership, further solidifying its presence in U.S. sports. Ted Leonsis, founder and CEO, emphasized plans to expand the Washington, D.C. sports ecosystem and enhance fan experiences.

This deal highlights the growing influence of private equity and sovereign wealth funds in sports. Arctos Partners now holds stakes in over 25 teams, including several NBA franchises, while QIA becomes the first sovereign wealth fund to invest directly in a major U.S. sports team, leveraging NBA regulation changes.


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