Flights connecting Australia and Europe are set to remain prohibitively expensive until the end of 2024, with a drop in prices expected thereafter, according to the CEO of Flight Centre, Graham Turner.

While travelers eager to reunite with family or soak in the European summer sun might find this timeline less than ideal, Turner emphasized the need for patience. “It’s a long time to wait, and airfares will stay relatively high,” he conceded.

These remarks come on the heels of Transport Minister Catherine King’s promise of imminent reductions in ticket prices. King faced criticism for rejecting Qatar Airways’ application to double their weekly flights to major Australian cities. Turner acknowledged that the proposed increase in Qatar flights wouldn’t have dramatically lowered international airfare costs but viewed it as a step in the right direction.

European vacation

Turner noted that airfares to Asian destinations are poised to become more affordable soon.

However, flights to Europe and the United Kingdom will remain costly due to lower capacity on flights to the Middle East, a vital stopover on routes to Europe. He explained that the demand for these flights is outstripping their limited capacity, thus keeping prices elevated.

Rico Merkert, a Professor in Transport at the University of Sydney Business School, concurred that while prices to Asia are decreasing, the constrained capacity to Europe is preventing a similar trend. He suggested that prices would only fall once full capacity is restored, but financial pressures on Australians and rising jet fuel costs could also influence carriers to reduce prices.

Minister King’s recent aviation green paper highlighted the importance of maintaining aviation capacity ahead of demand. She stated that airline capacity had reached approximately 91% of pre-COVID levels, with more flights planned to help drive down prices.

Despite increased capacity, travelers may face high Christmas travel costs, with Turner stating that a return flight to the UK could cost over $3,000 this holiday season.