Money

The “goldilocks” economy is hitting stock portfolios

Published

2 years ago

September 11, 2023

In recent weeks, the elusive “Goldilocks economy” has made a return to the financial spotlight, leaving investors curious about its implications for their stock portfolios.

This term, coined decades ago, characterizes an ideal economic scenario – one that’s neither too hot nor too cold but just right. It aims to strike the perfect balance between growth and inflation to keep the bears of economic downturn at bay.

However, this renewed optimism has proven short-lived as stocks have struggled throughout the month of August. The S&P 500’s disappointing performance in August marked its worst month since February, raising questions about the validity of the Goldilocks narrative.

Bearing market

The return of bearish sentiment can be attributed, in part, to market psychology. In 1992, Salomon Brothers’ David Shulman defined a Goldilocks economy as one with 4% annualized growth and 3.2% year-over-year inflation. While we’re not quite there, recent economic indicators suggest we’re closer to this Goldilocks scenario than initially thought.

Earlier in the year, pessimism prevailed with expectations of a looming recession, driven by fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes and various global concerns. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that rate hikes could lead to economic pain, with sticky inflation necessitating higher unemployment and potentially a recession.

Inflation dropping

However, recent data paints a different picture. Inflation has steadily decreased from its peak in June 2022, while GDP has continued to grow at 2.5%, surpassing most expectations. Job growth remains steady, unemployment rates are down, and the labor participation rate is up – all positive indicators.

This aligns with the view that there is no recession on the horizon, but rather modest, consistent growth with inflation stabilizing, creating a Goldilocks-like environment. The stock market has quietly thrived in this scenario, despite the persistent bearish sentiment.

Nonetheless, the fact that we’re once again discussing a Goldilocks economy ushers in a new psychological phase in this 11-month-old bull market. After being wrong for so long, it’s easy for investors to be jolted back to disbelief and panic when faced with any hint of risk.

Money

Commodities surge as oil volatility and metals hit record highs

Oil prices fluctuate due to geopolitical tensions; precious metals soar amid inflation concerns, sparking a commodities rally.

Published

19 hours ago

January 16, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Oil prices fluctuate due to geopolitical tensions; precious metals soar amid inflation concerns, sparking a commodities rally.

Global commodities are on the move, with oil prices swinging sharply as geopolitical tensions involving Iran fuel uncertainty across energy markets. Traders are closely watching supply risks and political flashpoints, driving short-term volatility.

Precious metals are stealing the spotlight, pushing to record highs as investors seek safety amid inflation concerns, interest-rate uncertainty and rising global risk. At the same time, industrial metals are surging, supported by demand expectations and tightening supply.

To unpack what this means for markets and investors, we’re joined by Kyle Rodda from Capital.com to break down the key drivers behind this powerful commodities rally.

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#Commodities #OilPrices #Gold #Metals #MarketVolatility #Geopolitics #Investing #TickerNews

Money

Stocks slide and Trump cancels talks: What’s next for markets and Greenland?

U.S. stocks dip; S&P 500 down 0.9%, as investors react to weak bank earnings and market volatility.

Published

2 days ago

January 15, 2026

Harvey Vargas

U.S. stocks dip; S&P 500 down 0.9%, as investors react to weak bank earnings and market volatility.

U.S. stocks fell for a second day on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.9% and the Dow Jones losing 164 points. Investors are reassessing record-high levels as major banks report weaker-than-expected earnings.

Wells Fargo shares tumbled more than 5% after disappointing revenue results, while Bank of America is down roughly 7% week to date. Citigroup and Wells Fargo have both seen declines of about 8%, highlighting volatility in the banking sector.

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#StockMarket #SP500 #DowJones #BankEarnings #TrumpNews #Iran #Greenland #Geopolitics

Money

U.S. budget deficit falls to $1.67 trillion

US budget deficit falls to $1.67 trillion amid tariffs; implications of corporate taxes and Supreme Court rulings discussed.

Published

2 days ago

January 15, 2026

Harvey Vargas

US budget deficit falls to $1.67 trillion amid tariffs; implications of corporate taxes and Supreme Court rulings discussed.

The US budget deficit has dropped to $1.67 trillion in 2025, the lowest in three years, driven by record customs revenue from President Donald Trump’s tariffs. While this marks a positive shift for the economy, challenges loom with potential Supreme Court rulings on tariffs and falling corporate tax receipts.

David Scutt from StoneX explains the key factors behind the decline in the deficit and what December’s figures reveal about the overall fiscal health of the US.

We also explore the potential implications of upcoming Supreme Court decisions and how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could impact future deficits. Stay informed on what these changes mean for the economy and markets.

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#USBudget #DeficitUpdate #TrumpTariffs #FiscalPolicy #Economy2025 #SupremeCourtImpact #CorporateTaxes #FinancialNews