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U.S. Fed may soon end interest rate hikes

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The central bank whose decisions impact so much of the global economy has been closely watched for signs on monetary policy direction

The U.S. Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its monetary tightening policy, several bank officials said on Monday, however they also indicated a few more rate rises will still be in store for the year.

The Fed has already implemented a total of 5 percentage points in rate hikes since March 2022 to combat the highest U.S. inflation in four decades.

In their most recent meeting, policymakers chose to postpone a rate increase to assess the impact of previous hikes on borrowing costs. Nonetheless, most officials anticipate at least two more increases by the end of 2023.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed a common sentiment among her peers, stating that a couple more hikes may be necessary this year to bring inflation back in line with the Fed’s target of 2%.

Daly also acknowledged that the risks of doing too little are gradually aligning with the risks of overdoing rate hikes as the Fed approaches the final phase of its tightening cycle.

She emphasised the importance of data-dependence and supported the cautious approach taken in June, allowing for a more thorough assessment of economic indicators.

Daly highlighted the significance of incoming data in determining future policy decisions, suggesting that the Fed may adjust its approach based on evolving circumstances.

The expectation is that the Fed will raise rates at their upcoming meeting, potentially bringing the policy rate to the range of 5.25%-5.50%.

However, the timing of subsequent rate hikes is less certain, with possibilities ranging from the September meeting to November or even a decision to maintain rates and allow inflation to gradually ease.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has previously noted that he cannot rule out consecutive rate hikes to address stubbornly high inflation.

Although inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures index, has declined from its peak of 7% last year to 3.8% in May, it remains nearly twice the Fed’s target.

The ultimate path of rate increases will depend on future economic data and its implications for inflationary pressures. The Fed aims to strike a balance between addressing inflation concerns and avoiding excessive tightening that could hinder economic growth.

“We still have a bit of work to do,” Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said on Monday at a separate event. “I’ll just say for myself, I think we’re close.”

 

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Money

How Hotspotting is driving investment advantage

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In the real estate rumble, how can Australian’s know where to make the best investments?

Wyld Money dives into the world of financial freedom. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just getting started, join us for actionable tips and tricks to unlock your earning potential, and retire on your own terms.

Hosted by Mark Wyld.

In this episode, Mark is joined by Tim Graham, General Manager of Hotspotting Australia.

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Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

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As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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