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To invest, or to hold? That is the question | TICKER VIEWS

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So with the markets running HOT particularly on Wall Street and the ASX, it brings up the age-old investing question:

Should I get in the market or should I get out?

Market Strategist Daniel Weiner has some pretty handy numbers for any investor who has stayed in the market over the last 13 years.

“Look at the S&P 500, since the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) there’s been almost 300 record highs, that’s almost one a week.

So if you’re invested for that whole period you’ve basically got that probability that every so often, granted there’ll be a few in a row, we are going to experience a new record high” according to Weiner.

Investors are highly aware of the emotion that comes with watching your money grow and fall.

But if you can remain calm for long enough, Weiner says there’s one key to returns.

“It just comes down to the length of time you’re willing to invest in the market.” 

300 record highs over that time, almost one a WEEK. Looks pretty good on paper. Obviously you have to manage the bumps along the way but goodness me.

Okay, so let’s expand our time horizon. Let’s work across a 30-year time frame of being invested in the market.

“Over a 30-year window if you were to invest at any random point in time in the S&P 500, versus the particular point in time where it’s a new record high…your 3 and 5 year returns and your 1 year returns will actually be higher investing at the point in time of a new record high” Weiner added.

Now that is surprising. Your returns, on average, are higher if you invested at the point of a record high. And just stay in the market.

So why would this happen?

Weiner points to a trend “so it might be counterintuitive for some people to see this.

But it could come down to a fact that record highs tend to beget record highs, because we tend to be in a bull run” 

So none of this is investing advice, each to their own, we’re all different people.

But these numbers suggest that “time in the market beats timing the market…”

I didn’t come up with that, but it might be a handy way to reduce the stress.

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Money

Bitcoin surges closer to all-time high

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Bitcoin surged to new heights on Monday, inching ever closer to its all-time high as the cryptocurrency market continued its bullish momentum following a weekend pause.

The flagship cryptocurrency recorded a remarkable 7.65% increase, reaching a price of $67,608.30, according to data from Coin Metrics.

Earlier in the day, it peaked at $67,977.77, marking its highest level since November 2021 when it achieved its previous all-time high. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also experienced gains, rising by 3.41% and trading near January 2022 highs at $3,588.83.

Both bitcoin and ether are riding the wave of their best week in almost a year, with bitcoin witnessing a 21% surge and ether climbing by 16%.

However, the weekend saw a temporary halt in their ascent as the market absorbed two days of significant outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which were offset by inflows into other newly launched bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Market dynamics

Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto exchange Nexo, noted the influence of these new ETFs on market dynamics, suggesting that major movements are now occurring during regular trading days rather than weekends. He emphasized the potential for explosive price action amidst strong demand from these new spot ETFs.

Although bitcoin currently stands around 3% below its intraday record of $68,982.20, it continues to uplift other crypto tokens, particularly meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu coin, which surged by 14% and 45% respectively.

Analysts interpret this as a sign of renewed interest from retail investors in the crypto market, as meme tokens’ weekly trade volume recently reached its highest level since late 2021.

Meanwhile, the rally in crypto equities varied, with Coinbase and Microstrategy experiencing gains of 11% and 24% respectively, while miners witnessed a downturn.

Companies such as CleanSpark, Cipher Mining, Iris Energy, Marathon Digital, and Riot Platforms faced declines ranging from 5% to 7% as concerns over the upcoming halving event in April weighed on investor sentiment.

Although some analysts foresee potential short-term corrections due to extreme profit margins, long-term investors remain optimistic.

They anticipate sustained upward momentum driven by increasing demand through new U.S. ETFs and tightening supply post-April halving.

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Money

Taxing times: 64% of Aussies think they pay too much tax

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As the cost of living continues to rise, a staggering 64% of Australians are voicing their concern over the amount of tax they pay annually, according to recent research conducted by Finder, Australia’s leading comparison site.

The survey, which polled 1,004 respondents, found that nearly two-thirds of Australians, equating to approximately 13 million individuals, feel burdened by the tax they contribute each financial year.

Of particular note is the sentiment among millennials, with a striking 80% expressing dissatisfaction with their tax contributions. Following closely behind are Gen Xers, with 72% sharing similar sentiments. Comparatively, Gen Z (63%) and baby boomers (39%) exhibit less discontent with their tax obligations.

Sarah Megginson, a personal finance expert at Finder, highlighted the strain that the cost of living imposes on individuals’ financial situations.

“Budgets are stretched thin, with many struggling to make ends meet,” she noted. “While inflation is trending downwards, the financial burden remains heavy for a significant portion of Australians.”

Tax hope

However, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon.

The Australian government has announced plans to implement tax cuts commencing July 1, aimed at providing relief to taxpayers grappling with the escalating cost of living.

According to Finder’s analysis, Australians earning between $45,000 and $135,000 annually stand to benefit from a further tax cut of $804, in addition to previously announced reductions.

This translates to a substantial increase in disposable income, potentially alleviating financial strain for many households.

For instance, an individual earning the median Australian income of $83,200 could expect a tax cut of $1,759 over 12 months, nearly double the previous $955 reduction.

Meanwhile, those earning over $200,000 annually will receive approximately $4,529 under the new stage 3 tax cuts, compared to $9,075 under the previous scheme.

Money back

Megginson emphasized the significance of this financial injection in easing the burden of everyday expenses.

“Those struggling with everyday costs will see more money back in their pocket to help battle expenses,” she remarked.

“If your budget allows, stashing some of this extra cash is a wise move. Every bit helps build a buffer for those unexpected rainy days.”

Megginson advised individuals to explore avenues for potential savings, such as switching service providers to reduce expenses. For those unable to save, she recommended allocating the extra funds towards paying down debt and bills to alleviate financial pressure.

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Money

Anticipation builds for US jobs data and it’s global impact

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What to expect on. a global scale as investors brace for key U.S. employment figures.

Investors and economists are eagerly awaiting the release of the latest US jobs data, anticipating its potential impact on global market trends.

The numbers are expected to provide crucial insights into the health of the world’s largest economy and may influence investment decisions and market sentiments worldwide.

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