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To invest, or to hold? That is the question | TICKER VIEWS

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So with the markets running HOT particularly on Wall Street and the ASX, it brings up the age-old investing question:

Should I get in the market or should I get out?

Market Strategist Daniel Weiner has some pretty handy numbers for any investor who has stayed in the market over the last 13 years.

“Look at the S&P 500, since the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) there’s been almost 300 record highs, that’s almost one a week.

So if you’re invested for that whole period you’ve basically got that probability that every so often, granted there’ll be a few in a row, we are going to experience a new record high” according to Weiner.

Investors are highly aware of the emotion that comes with watching your money grow and fall.

But if you can remain calm for long enough, Weiner says there’s one key to returns.

“It just comes down to the length of time you’re willing to invest in the market.” 

300 record highs over that time, almost one a WEEK. Looks pretty good on paper. Obviously you have to manage the bumps along the way but goodness me.

Okay, so let’s expand our time horizon. Let’s work across a 30-year time frame of being invested in the market.

“Over a 30-year window if you were to invest at any random point in time in the S&P 500, versus the particular point in time where it’s a new record high…your 3 and 5 year returns and your 1 year returns will actually be higher investing at the point in time of a new record high” Weiner added.

Now that is surprising. Your returns, on average, are higher if you invested at the point of a record high. And just stay in the market.

So why would this happen?

Weiner points to a trend “so it might be counterintuitive for some people to see this.

But it could come down to a fact that record highs tend to beget record highs, because we tend to be in a bull run” 

So none of this is investing advice, each to their own, we’re all different people.

But these numbers suggest that “time in the market beats timing the market…”

I didn’t come up with that, but it might be a handy way to reduce the stress.

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Money

Amex faces $230 million penalties for deceptive practices

Amex to pay $230M in penalties for deceptive sales practices involving credit cards, wire services to small businesses.

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Amex to pay $230M in penalties for deceptive sales practices involving credit cards, wire services to small businesses.

American Express has agreed to pay approximately $230 million in penalties related to deceptive practices in the sale of credit cards and wire services to small businesses.

The settlement breaks down to a $108.7 million civil penalty from the Justice Department and includes a non-prosecution agreement with the Eastern District of New York. This follows a criminal investigation into the company’s practices.

Additionally, American Express has reached a preliminary agreement with the Federal Reserve, which is expected to be finalised soon. The penalty from the Federal Reserve is included in the total $230 million.

Reports by the Wall Street Journal highlighted instances where some Amex salespeople pressured business owners to boost sales for credit cards and other products. This included misrepresenting card rewards and fees, as well as checking credit reports without proper consent.

The Journal also reported on deceptive marketing practices regarding wire products that were misleadingly pitched as ways to avoid tax payments. Furthermore, Amex was accused of entering “dummy” employer identification numbers on small-business credit card accounts to artificially inflate sign-ups.

American Express stated that it has cooperated with regulatory agencies to address these issues, which included staff discipline and changes in training and organisation. The company claims that these problematic practices ended in 2021 or earlier.

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Money

US stocks surge as banks report record profits

US stocks rise as banks report near-record profits; CPI slows, fueling hopes for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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US stocks rise as banks report near-record profits; CPI slows, fueling hopes for continued Federal Reserve rate cuts.

US stocks rose sharply following strong earnings reports from four major banks: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo.

The banks reported their second-most profitable year ever.

JPMorgan achieved a historic milestone by becoming the first US bank to exceed $50 billion in annual profit.

Goldman Sachs saw record revenue from its equities trading division.

Citigroup reported record revenue in three of its five key segments: wealth management, US personal banking, and services.

Wells Fargo, while having the smallest presence on Wall Street, recorded a 62 per cent increase in annual revenue from investment banking.

Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are set to announce their results on Friday AEDT.

In other news, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose at a slower rate than anticipated, indicating a potential easing of inflation.

This development has strengthened expectations that Federal Reserve policymakers may have room to continue cutting rates.

Consequently, the yield on the US 10-year bond dropped by 14 basis points to 4.66 per cent.

Similarly, UK yields fell by 16 basis points to 4.73 per cent after services inflation in the UK decreased to 4.4 per cent in December, down from 5 per cent in November, a more significant decline than the 4.8 per cent economists had predicted.

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Money

Bitcoin rises 2% as market awaits inflation report

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As of January 15, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $97,198, reflecting a 2.17% increase over the past 24 hours. The cryptocurrency’s market capitalisation stands at around $1.93 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $54.23 billion.

This recent uptick comes as investors anticipate the upcoming U.S. inflation report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

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