When U.S. President Joe Biden said Russia will invade Ukraine on 19 January, he was playing a tight game of diplomatic chess

The President cautioned his Russian counterpart, saying that President Vladimir Putin “will regret having done it”.

It was a somewhat bold move for Mr Biden, who is trying to reassert the U.S.’ dominance in foreign policy following President Donald Trump’s tenure.

Russia has amassed around 100,000 troops along its border with Ukraine in recent months.

President Putin has put together several requests for the U.S. before he considers drawing his forces back.

These requests include a ban on Ukraine joining NATO, and for the North Atlantic Alliance to remove its troops across eastern Europe—areas that were formerly part of the Soviet Union.

What are the consequences?

The U.S. has been very clear: if Russia invades Ukraine, there will be “serious” personal sanctions against President Putin.

“There are going to be serious economic consequences if he moves.”

U.S. PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN

The U.S. President hasn’t minced his words. In fact, he believes “it would be the largest invasion since World War II”, and it would “change the world” if Russia entered its sovereign neighbour.

The U.S. has put 8,5000 troops on alert amid fears of an invasion. Of course, armed forces are always on alert, so this may just be symbolic of the U.S.’ commitment to NATO.

But U.S. Republican Oz Sultan told Ticker NEWS the President has been “heavy fisted in his response”, to the escalating tensions.

“The challenge that you have is Russia has seen Ukraine joining NATO as a threat.”

REPUBLICAN OZ SULTAN

The European Commission is also on board. Ticker NEWS spoke with Peter Stano, who is the lead spokesperson for external affairs. He says “we are strongly united and determined to react to any further aggression with massive, massive measures that would have inflict a huge cost on the aggressor’s consequences.”

Russia recently responded to the U.S.’ stance on the issue. A spokesperson for Mr Putin, Dmitry Peskov, believes such sanctions would not be “painful” for the President.

He says the sanctions would be “politically destructive”.

Peter Stano believes military action is “outdated” in 21st Century Europe. Instead, he believes economic sanctions are the way forward.

Tensions in this part of the world are hardly new. In fact, conflict peaked in 2014 when protesters ousted Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych.

At the same time, Russia annexed Crimea—an area largely made up of ethnic Russians.

Then, Mr Putin moved to strike in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Over 14,000 people have lost their lives in the armed conflict.

How does Ukraine feel about this?

Between the U.S. and Russia—two of the world’s biggest superpowers, Ukraine feels like the forgotten child in this latest fiasco.

The nation is home to over 44 million people. A 2020 survey found 81 per cent of Ukrainians had a negative attitude of Mr Putin.

But its residents appear relatively calm at the moment.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba isn’t overly concerned about the number of troops on the border either. He says “their number is now insufficient for a large-scale offensive”.

“They are still missing some key military elements and systems to mount a big, full-scale offensive.”

UKRAINE’S FOREIGN MINISTER DMYTRO KULEBA

Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany met in Paris this week to discuss the conflict. There were no breakthroughs but the Normandy-style gathering agreed to meet again in two weeks.

What is Russia’s motivation behind this?

President Putin is afraid of democracy. The leader sensationally changed his nation’s constitution in 2020, which allows him to remain in power until 2036.

Mr Putin’s ‘buffer states’ mentality has granted Russia geographic separatism from the European Union in the West.

It’s the same reason why Mr Putin is scared of Opposition Leader Alexei Navalny, who was added to Russia’s ‘terrorist list’ this week.

“Nalvany’s one man with a small operation but that represents democracy to him and Putin is really afraid of democracy.”

Dr carol saivetz, harvard university

Russia has consistently denied any intention of invading Ukraine. It would be highly frowned upon by the international community if that promise was broken.

“They {Russia] know that the Ukraine Government is pushing hard for membership of NATO and that, in their view, would complete this extraordinary push of NATO’s membership from central Europe right across to Russia’s borders,” Professor Joseph Camilleri from La Trobe University says.

Professor Camilleri told Ticker NEWS he doesn’t think an incursion will occur. Instead, he believes Russia considers the U.S. as an “adversary that will never redeem itself”.

It could be a strategic gambit for Russia, or the nation could be playing with fire.

Why does the U.S. want to get involved?

It feels like Cold-War era power play is at the heart of this. So why does the U.S. want to get involved in another conflict on another continent?

The U.S. is a founding member of NATO, which contributes thousands of active personnel across Europe.

European NATO members are currently spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence by 2024. The U.S. has previously pushed for more under President Trump.

But unlike Mr Putin, the U.S. is a big supporter of democracy—something that was came to life at Mr Biden’s Summit for Democracy.

The U.S. wants to fight for democracy. President Biden describes it as “the defining challenge of our time”.

As such, the U.S. sees the Russia-Ukraine conflict as critical to meeting those objectives. Importantly, the U.S. has zero NATO obligations to Ukraine so it’s hard to imagine a large military presence on the ground fighting Russia.

With economic sanctions for Russia, and a red-faced U.S. all on the table. It appears like this conflict may end in checkmate sooner than expected.