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Stocks rise as Fed minutes, earnings await release

Stocks near record highs as investors eye Fed minutes and upcoming manufacturing updates amid positive inflation data.

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Stocks near record highs as investors eye Fed minutes and upcoming manufacturing updates amid positive inflation data.

In Short

The S&P 500 hit a record high due to positive inflation data, raising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Corporate earnings reports are upcoming, while January inflation trends suggest a slowdown in price growth, reinforcing hopes for future rate cuts.

During the week, the Nasdaq Composite increased by over 2.5%, while the S&P 500 climbed nearly 1.5% and the Dow Jones added about 0.5%.

Corporate earnings season continues, with notable reports expected from Alibaba and Walmart. A total of 46 S&P 500 companies will announce results this trading week, which is shortened due to Presidents’ Day.

Next week promises a quieter economic news schedule, with market attention on the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes, along with updates on manufacturing, services, and consumer sentiment.

Recent inflation reports for January indicated higher-than-expected price increases, but economists discerned positive trends. They noted a likely slowdown in price growth within categories relevant to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) index.

Projections for “core” PCE, which excludes food and energy, are set at 2.6% for January, a decrease from December’s 2.8%. Markets continue to foresee one or two rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, aligning with views that cutting rates is more probable than raising them.

Investors will focus on the Fed’s January minutes for insights into future interest rate plans. The S&P 500’s rise is diverse, with several stocks beyond tech performing well, indicating broad market strength at the start of 2025.

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Money

Fed cuts rates, signals more potentially ahead

Fed lowers rates amid job market concerns, signalling potential further cuts in upcoming meetings

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Fed lowers rates amid job market concerns, signalling potential further cuts in upcoming meetings

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In Short:
– The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point to address job market concerns.
– Officials expect at least two additional rate cuts by year-end amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by a quarter-point, addressing concerns about a weakening job market overshadowing inflation worries.
A majority of officials anticipate at least two additional cuts by year-end during the remaining meetings in October and December.Banner

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted a significant shift in the labour market, highlighting “downside risk” in his statements.

The recent rate cut, supported by 11 of 12 Fed voters, aims to recalibrate an economy facing uncertainties from policy changes and market pressures.

Policy Dynamics

The decision comes amid intense political scrutiny, with President Trump openly criticising Powell’s reluctance to lower rates.

Despite the controversy, Powell asserts that political pressures do not influence Fed operations.

The current benchmark federal-funds rate now sits between 4% and 4.25%, the lowest since 2021, providing some reprieve to consumers and small businesses. Economic forecasts indicate ongoing complexities, including inflation trends and the impact of tariffs on labour dynamics, complicating future policy decisions.


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Money

Fed faces unusual dissent amid leadership uncertainty

Fed’s Powell navigates contentious meeting amid Trump-appointed dissenters as rate cut looms and succession contest heats up

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Fed’s Powell navigates contentious meeting amid Trump-appointed dissenters as rate cut looms and succession contest heats up

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In Short:
– This week’s Federal Reserve meeting faces unusual dissent as Chair Powell approaches his term’s end.
– Analysts predict dissent over expected rate cuts due to political pressures from Trump-appointed officials.
This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is set to be particularly unusual, with Chair Jerome Powell facing significant disagreements over future policy as he approaches the end of his term in May.Tensions began before the meeting when Fed governor Lisa Cook won a court ruling allowing her to attend, despite opposition from President Trump, who is attempting to remove her.

The situation is further complicated by the recent swearing-in of Trump adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed’s board, following a Senate confirmation.

Analysts believe Powell may encounter dissent on an expected quarter-percentage-point rate cut from both Trump-appointed officials and regional Fed presidents concerned about inflation.

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Potential Dissent

Trump has urged significant rate cuts and for the board to challenge Powell’s decisions.

Some analysts predict dissenting votes from Miran and other Trump appointees in favour of larger cuts. Federal Reserve veterans express concerns that political motivations may undermine the institution’s integrity, with indications that greater dissent could become commonplace.


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RBA plans to ban credit card surcharges in Australia

Reserve Bank of Australia plans to ban credit card surcharges despite banks warning of potential higher fees and weaker rewards

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Reserve Bank of Australia plans to ban credit card surcharges despite banks warning of potential higher fees and weaker rewards.

In Short:
– The RBA plans to ban surcharges on debit and credit card transactions, supported by consumer group Choice.
– Major banks oppose the ban, warning it could lead to higher card fees and reduced rewards for credit card users.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) intends to implement a ban on surcharges associated with debit and credit card transactions. Consumer advocacy group Choice endorses this initiative, arguing that it is unjust for users of low-cost debit cards to incur similar fees as credit card holders.Banner

The major banks, however, are opposing this reform. They caution that the removal of surcharges could prompt customers to abandon credit cards due to diminished rewards.

A final decision by the RBA is anticipated by December 2025.


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