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Post Market Wrap | US Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates By 50bp to 0.75-1.00% Target

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US Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates By 50bp to 0.75-1.00% Target

  • Core inflation in the US soared to 5.2 per cent in March, compared with the previous year
  • Federal Reserve target inflation rate is 2 percent
  • Federal Reserve considers US the US economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates  
  • Markets braced for Federal Reserve Funds rate of 2.75 percent by December 2022
  • Lower US bond yields post rate rise imply further rate rises unlikely to rattle markets

US half-percentage interest rate increase

In a widely anticipated move, the US Federal Reserve Board increased the target range for the Federal Funds interest rate by half a percent to a higher range of 0.75 percent to 1 percent. This is the second consecutive monthly rate rise of half a percent since 2006 and the first time in 20 years that a rate rise of more than a quarter of one percent has been applied in a single Reserve Board policy meeting

What the Federal Reserve said

The Federal Reserve Board met over two days so their well-considered commentary has been carefully analysed by global debt markets and banking institutions. The Federal Reserve statement released after the meeting observed that the war on Ukraine has pushed up energy and commodity prices, creating upward pressure on the rate of inflation. The Federal Reserve also noted that further recent COVID-19 related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate current supply chain bottlenecks. These disruptions are adding to input costs and weighing down on economic activity. The looming inflation problem is further compounded by the existing tight labour market in the US at 3.6 percent unemployment and an increase in employment numbers in March of 431,000.  This is among the tightest labour market in US history and is a sure sign of price pressures becoming more entrenched as wages are a major component of input costs, leading to higher inflation, especially during periods of high consumer demand, when the economy is strong.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of core inflation is the personal consumption expenditures price index, and this soared to 5.2 per cent in March, compared with the previous year. This is well outside the Federal Reserve’s stated inflation target of 2 per cent and implies that there are more rate rises on the way. The question for markets now is how many interest rate rises are on the way.    

The Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, assuaged bond and equity market fears that the recent rate rise would be higher at 0.75 percent and not 0.5 percent. The markets feared that a 0.75 percent increase may tip the global economy into recession. Chairman Powell sated that further rate increases are planned for the coming months ahead; however, he stated that the increases will be in increments of 0.5 percent. He added that moving more aggressively on interest rates was not under active consideration. 

This implies that the Federal Reserve is targeting a neutral Federal Funds rate, which is widely considered to be somewhere between 2 and 3 per cent, although some economists consider it may be much higher, especially now that inflation has well overshot the Federal Reserve’s two per cent inflation target. Powell said a neutral rate was “not something we can identify with any precision” and stated the Federal Reserve “will not hesitate” to go beyond that threshold if warranted by the data.

Assuming two consecutive Federal Reserve rate rises in June and July, each of half a percent, the Federal Reserve interest rate would rise to be 2 percent. To achieve a neutral funds rate of (say) 2.75 percent, will require at least three rate rises of a quarter of one percent in the months of September, November and December. 

Image: file

The market response

Chairman Powell’s forward guidance was well received by capital markets when he indicated a less aggressive stance on interest rates to what was previously anticipated by global capital market participants.

The US bond market reacted favourably to this reassurance, by immediately lowering the 10-year and 30-year bond yields by 0.037 percent and 0.027 percent to 2.96 percent and 3.037 percent. Equity markets also responded favourably with the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing up 932.27 points, or 2.8%, to 34061.06. The S&P 500 jumped 124.69 points, or 3%, to 4300.17. Both indexes had been down earlier in the day.

 Markets are now braced for a 0.5 percent rate increase at the next two Federal Reserve Board interest rate policy meetings in June and July. The Capital markets understand that the pandemic-era stimulus does not sit logically with the existing tight labour market in the US at 3.6 percent unemployment. Accordingly, markets anticipate increases of a quarter of 1 percent in September, November and December, taking the Federal Funds rate to 2.75 per cent by the end of the year. Federal Reserve officials believe the US economy is strong enough to withstand this tighter monetary policy stance. 

This commentary from the Federal Reserve Board has clearly calmed markets for now and with further rate increases baked in to bond and equity prices, markets are unlikely to sell-off when the increases are announced. 

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

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A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

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Money

Workers rush back to their desks over job fears

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Workers across Australia are rushing back to their desks, driving office utilisation rates to their highest levels since February 2020.

Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays emerge as the busiest in-office days, contrasting with the continued reluctance to return on Fridays.

This insight, drawn from XY Sense data based on 18 enterprise customers in Australia employing approximately 68,000 individuals across 127 buildings, reflects a significant shift in workplace dynamics.

The surge in office attendance coincides with a resurgence in workplace attendance mandates and policies linking physical presence to bonuses and performance reviews.

However, co-founder of XY Sense, Alex Birch, suggests that rising job insecurity, rather than these policies, primarily drives this behavioral shift.

“The pendulum has moved towards the employer, and therefore people feel more obliged to go back into work,” commented Mr. Birch.

Job market

Danielle Wood, chairwoman of the Productivity Commission, anticipates this trend to persist as the job market softens.

She notes a disparity between employer and worker perceptions regarding the productivity benefits of hybrid work arrangements, hinting at potential shifts in the employment landscape.

Meanwhile, economists at the e61 Institute observe a partial reversal of the pandemic-induced “escape to the country” trend.

Rent differentials between regional and capital city dwellings, which narrowed during the pandemic, are now widening again.

This trend suggests a diminishing appeal of remote work options and a return to urban commuting.

Aaron Wong, senior research economist at e61, said the emergence of a “new normal,” characterised by a hybrid lifestyle that blends access to office spaces with proximity to lifestyle amenities such as natural landscapes.

While regional rents decline, rents for homes on the urban fringe surge, reflecting evolving preferences shaped by remote work opportunities.

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