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Post Market Wrap | Northern Star March Quarter Gold Production Disappoints Market

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Pogo mine in Alaska disappoints with lower production volume and substantially higher costs
  • Australian operations tracking to plan to meet FY22 production and cost guidance 
  • Group FY22 production guidance is unchanged at 1.55 -1.65 million oz
  • Group FY22 cost guidance is now A$1600 – A$1640/oz, up from A$1475 – A$1575/oz. 
  • Cash and bullion on hand A$533 million, net cash of A$433 million at 31 March 2022
  • Comprehensive exploration and Resource & Reserve update to be released in the June quarter
  • Target of 2 million oz of production by 2026 remains.

Northern Star Resources Limited (‘Northern Star‘ or the ‘Group’) owns and operates three world class gold production centres, two of which are located in Western Australia and a third site in Alaska. Northern Star merged with Saracen Mineral Holdings in February 2021, to form the world’s sixth-largest gold miner, adding $6.7 billion value to the newly merged entity. The merger delivered sole ownership of the iconic Super Pit, located just outside of Kalgoorlie, to Northern Star. 

March 2022 Quarterly Report  

Northern Star reported gold sold of 380,075 oz at an All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) of A$1656/oz for the March quarter. The production volume is 11,915oz lower and the AISC is A$25/oz higher than the December quarter, when 392,665 oz of gold was sold at an All-In Sustaining Cost of A$1631/oz.

The slightly disappointing numbers at the Group level can be attributed to higher production costs and now lower production forecasts coming out the Pogo mine in Alaska, Canada. Pogo was acquired in 2018 and since that date Northern has spent US$55 million on expanding resources and reserves and upgrades that include upgrading the mill throughput capacity to 1.3 million metric tons per year.

Pogo gold production for FY22 has been revised down to the range of 205,000 to 220,000 oz from 220,000 to 250,000 oz. Pogo produced 209,647 oz of gold during FY21. Costs of production have also been revised substantially higher. Estimated AISC has been revised from A$1700 – A$1800/oz to A$$2150 – A$2230/oz. The Pogo mine accounts for about 15 percent of Group operations. 

The Australian operations are tracking to meet FY22 production and cost guidance. Taking into account the sub-optimal operating performance of the Pogo mine, Group FY22 production guidance remains unchanged at 1.55 -1.65 million oz. However, Group FY22 AISC guidance is now higher and is forecasted to rise to A$1600 – A$1640/oz, up from A$1475 – A$1575/oz. 

The March quarter average realised gold price was A$2,468/oz, delivering sales revenue of A$937 million. Cash and bullion on hand at 31 March 2022 was A$533 million. Corporate bank debt stood at $100 million, leaving net cash of A$433 million at the end of the March quarter.

Outlook

A$26 million was invested in exploration bringing the total year-to-date expenditure to A$85 million, compared to FY22 exploration expenditure guidance of A$140 million. The exploration focus currently is on extending the mine life at the Group’s three production centres – Kalgoorlie, Yandal and Pogo. 

The Kalgoorlie Super Pit and Yandal site look set to continue to perform in line with expectations, however the Pogo site performed below expectations with lower production volume at a higher cost. Northern Star must improve mine productivity at Pogo to optimise future cost performance and management have indicated that the current elevated cost structure is temporary.

The Group commenced a five-year profitable growth program one year ago.  Progress with this initiative and the comprehensive exploration and Resource & Reserve update scheduled for release in the June quarter, will be closely watched by the market. The Group continues to give every indication that it is tracking to 2 million oz of production by 2026.

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

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As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

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A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

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