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Post Market Wrap | Inflation Shock May Prompt RBA To Hike Rates As Early As Next Week

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Headline annual inflation rate 5.1 percent and underlying inflation 3.7 percent
  • Current official interest rate setting of 0.1 percent is no longer appropriate 
  • RBA dilemma: 0.15 percent increase next week or 0.4 percent next month? 
  • Capital markets are braced for interest rates to normalise.  

Not if, but when and how much?  

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is faced with the prospect of runaway inflation if it doesn’t increase the official interest rate at its board meeting next Tuesday. This is the view of several leading economists in response to yesterday’s inflation data showing that the headline inflation rate is 5.1 percent pa and underlying inflation is now 3.7 percent. This is well outside the RBA’s stated inflation target range of 2-3 percent and the largest annual increase in inflation for more than 20 years. It comes at a time when interest rates are at a 40-year low and unemployment at a near 50-year low. Clearly history is not on the side of the RBA.       

The driving factors pushing consumer prices higher are well documented, and include supply chain cost pressures, higher fuel, grocery, tertiary education, and higher new housing costs. This is before wage cost pressures emerge. Another emerging factor is the recent fresh break-out of COVID in China that is causing lockdowns that may see a worsening of the supply chain constraints for key components of manufactured goods and materials essential to the orderly functioning of the Australian economy. This confluence of events implies that the current RBA official interest rate setting of 0.1 percent is no longer appropriate.

The dilemma for the RBA is that the government is in election mode and any decision not to increase the official rate next Tuesday may be seen as politically inspired. The RBA is an independent Central Bank and must be seen always to act independently. 

0.15 percent increase next week or 0.4 percent next month?

If interest rates are not increased next Tuesday, there is a risk that a rate rise at a later date may have to be higher than if a rate increase is announced next Tuesday. The market consensus is that a rate rise is necessary sooner rather than later, because this is what the data is already telling us: it wasn’t raining when Noah built the Ark!

A minimum 0.15 percent increase to the current 0.1 percent official cash rate, taking the official rate to 0.25 percent, is probable next Tuesday. If not, then the market widely anticipates a higher increase of 0.4 percent in June, taking the official interest rate to 0.5 percent.

If it’s in the news, it’s in the price

Market implications of an official interest rate rise, whether it is announced next week or next month, are likely to be muted, or neutral. Markets react poorly to surprises, and any interest rate rise announcement by the RBA next week, should not come as a surprise. Interestingly, if the RBA doesn’t announce an official rate rise next Tuesday, that may lead to a temporary market sell-off, because no change to official interest rates may come as surprise to some investment market participants. 

You can’t predict the future; but one must prepare for it!

Inflation is here and the present near zero interest rate setting is no longer appropriate. Zero interest rates may explain the current historically high asset prices, but they don’t justify them. Asset price inflation works for many investors (and homeowners), but it doesn’t do much for economic growth. 

This is why interest rates will soon begin to normalise. Investors should prepare for this scenario as it unfolds in the weeks and months ahead. 

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

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As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

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A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

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