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Post Market Wrap | IGO takeover of Western Areas delayed by up to two months

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This Post Market Wrap is presented by KOSEC – Kodari Securities

  • Takeover Scheme of Arrangement likely to settle in May/June 2022
  • Ongoing suspension of LME nickel trading since March 8 following unprecedented price volatility
  • Western Areas, advised by KPMG, are considering implications for the nickel market 
  • IGO $3.36 per share cash bid price is locked-in and agreed by Western Areas
  • IGO firmly on track to become a globally relevant lithium producer 

IGO Limited (‘IGO’) is a future-facing business with an exclusive focus on ‘clean energy’ metals that are essential to enabling clean energy production, particularly regards battery storage. IGO has a 49 percent JV stake in Chinese-owned Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia, that provides IGO with a 25 percent interest in the Greenbushes lithium mining operation and a 49 percent stake in the lithium processing plant at Kwinana.

The Greenbushes lithium mine in WA is the world’s largest lithium mine. Lithium is an essential element for the production of batteries. Other projects include a 70 percent Joint Venture exploration interest with Antipa Minerals Limited in the world class Paterson Province.

IGO also has a 70 percent stake in the graphite and nickel-copper Fraser Range Joint Venture with Carawina Resources.

Western Areas takeover delayed by nickel price volatility 

Extreme volatility witnessed in global nickel prices on March 8, which saw Nickel soar to above US$100,000 a tonne, resulting in the London Metal Exchange (LME) temporarily suspending nickel trading, has delayed IGO’s takeover of Western Areas Limited (Western Areas).  Western Areas, advised by their Independent Expert, KPMG, are considering the implications, if any, on nickel market fundamentals. The Takeover is being effected by a Scheme of Arrangement, where Western Areas shareholders will receive $3.36 cash for each share. IGO’s bid price for Western Areas is locked in at $3.36 per share. 

IGO has no obligation, nor any present intention to increase the offer price, in response to the current situation. The transaction values Western Areas at $1096 million. The delay is unlikely to be more than one or two months. The original Implementation Date of the Scheme of Arrangement was April 2022. The date is now scheduled for May/June 2022.    

The nickel market was thrown into turmoil following a major industry participant being subject to a short squeeze, resulting in a substantial financial obligation to counterparties overnight, that may result in default. This may have a contagion effect, where other parties are also impacted by failed settlement obligations. To put this nickel price volatility into perspective, nickel was trading at US$15,000 a tonne in June 202, up from US$8931 a year earlier. The price of nickel quoted on the LME spiked above US$40,000 a tonne two weeks ago, up US$10,000 in a single day, before spiking to US$100,000 on March 8. Nickel trading on the LME has been suspended from this date. 

Image: file

Implications for IGO

IGO have stated that their long-term assessment of nickel market fundamentals and the price outlook remains firm, in light of the current price volatility. 

The war on Ukraine has driven oil prices to a level which has accelerated the demand for Electric Vehicles. This demand in turn significantly increases the future demand for lithium batteries as an alternative energy source to petroleum. According to Electric Vehicle manufacturer, Tesla, lithium batteries comprise 85 percent nickel.  Given the International Energy Agency has forecasted that 125 million Electric Vehicles will be in use by 2030, the long-term price outlook for nickel is strong, fuelled by robust demand well into the future. 

The current nickel price volatility presently has no direct material impact on IGO or its offer for Western Areas. The Western Areas takeover puts IGO on a clear pathway to building a world-class and globally relevant lithium business capable of generating significant shareholder upside in the period ahead. 

This Post Market Wrap is presented by Kodari Securities, written by Michael Kodari, CEO at KOSEC.

"Michael Kodari is one of the world's most consistent, top performing investor. A philanthropist and one of the prominent experts of the financial markets, he has been referred to as ‘the brightest 21st century entrepreneur in wealth management' by CNBC Asia and featured on Forbes. Featured on TV as the "Money Expert", on the weekly Sunday program "Elevator Pitch", he is recognised internationally by governments as he was the guest of honour for the event "Inside China's Future", chosen by the Chinese government from the funds management industry, attended by industry leaders, when they arrived in Sydney Australia, on April 2014. Michael and George Soros were the only two financiers in the world invited and chosen by the Chinese government to provide advice, and their expertise on Chinese government asset allocation offshore. With a strong background in funds management and stockbroking, Michael has worked with some of the most successful investors and consulted to leading financial institutions. He was the youngest person ever to appear on the expert panel for Fox, Sky News Business Channel at the age of 25 where he demonstrated his skillset across a 3 year period forming the most consistent track record and getting all his predictions right over that period. Michael writes for key financial publications, is regularly interviewed by various media and conducts conferences around the world."

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Money

Research shows daters are looking for solvent partners

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As the cost-of-living crisis continues to grip Australia, new research reveals a shifting landscape in the realm of dating preferences.

According to the survey conducted by eharmony, an overwhelming two-thirds of Australians are now keen to understand their potential partner’s financial situation before committing to a serious relationship.

The findings indicate a growing trend where individuals are becoming more discerning about whom they invest their affections in, particularly as the economic pressures intensify.

Read more: Why are car prices so high?

The study highlights that nearly half of respondents (48%) consider a potential partner’s debts and income as crucial factors in determining whether to pursue a relationship.

Certain types of debt, such as credit card debt, payday loans, and personal loans, are viewed unfavorably by the vast majority of respondents, signaling a preference for partners who exhibit financial responsibility.

Good debt

While certain forms of debt, such as mortgages and student loans (e.g., HECS), are deemed acceptable or even ‘good’ debt by a majority of respondents, credit card debt, payday loans (such as Afterpay), and personal loans top the list of ‘bad’ debt, with 82%, 78%, and 73% of respondents, respectively, expressing concerns.

Interestingly, even car loans are viewed unfavorably by a significant portion of those surveyed, with 57.5% considering them to be undesirable debt.

Sharon Draper, a relationship expert at eharmony, said the significance of financial compatibility in relationships, noting that discussions around money are increasingly taking place at earlier stages of dating.

“In the past, couples tended to avoid discussing money during the early stages of dating because it was regarded as rude and potentially off-putting,” Draper explains.

“However, understanding each other’s perspectives and habits around finances early on can be instrumental in assessing long-term compatibility.”

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Money

US energy stocks surge amid economic growth and inflation fears

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Investors are turning to U.S. energy shares in droves, capitalizing on surging oil prices and a resilient economy while seeking protection against looming inflationary pressures.

The S&P 500 energy sector has witnessed a remarkable ascent in 2024, boasting gains of approximately 17%, effectively doubling the broader index’s year-to-date performance.

This surge has intensified in recent weeks, propelling the energy sector to the forefront of the S&P 500’s top-performing sectors.

A significant catalyst driving this rally is the relentless rise in oil prices. U.S. crude has surged by 20% year-to-date, propelled by robust economic indicators in the United States and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Investors are also turning to energy shares as a hedge against inflation, which has proven more persistent than anticipated, threatening to derail the broader market rally.

Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at Wealth Enhancement Group, notes that having exposure to commodities can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures, prompting many portfolios to overweight energy stocks.

Shell Service Station

Shell Service Station

Energy companies

This sentiment is underscored by the disciplined capital spending observed among energy companies, particularly oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Among the standout performers within the energy sector this year are Marathon Petroleum, which has surged by 40%, and Valero Energy, up by an impressive 33%.

As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear, with reports from major companies such as Netflix, Bank of America, and Procter & Gamble, investors will closely scrutinize economic indicators such as monthly U.S. retail sales to gauge consumer behavior amidst lingering inflation concerns.

The rally in energy stocks signals a broadening of the U.S. equities rally beyond growth and technology companies that dominated last year.

However, escalating inflation expectations and concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve could dampen investors’ appetite for non-commodities-related sectors.

Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel Corp., highlights investors’ focus on the robust economy amidst supply bottlenecks in commodities, especially oil.

This sentiment is echoed by strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets, who maintain bullish calls on energy shares, citing heightened geopolitical risks and strong economic fundamentals.

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Money

How Australians lose nearly $1 billion to card scammers in a year

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A recent study by Finder has unveiled a distressing trend: Australians are hemorrhaging money to card scams at an alarming rate.

The survey, conducted among 1,039 participants, painted a grim picture, with 2.2 million individuals – roughly 11% of the population – falling prey to credit or debit card skimming in 2023 alone.

The financial toll of these scams is staggering. On average, victims lost $418 each, amounting to a colossal $930 million collectively across the country.

Rebecca Pike, a financial expert at Finder, underscored the correlation between the surge in digital transactions and the proliferation of sophisticated scams.

“Scammers are adapting, leveraging sophisticated tactics that often mimic trusted brands or exploit personal connections. With digital transactions on the rise, it’s imperative for consumers to remain vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial assets,” Pike said.

Read more – How Google is cracking down on scams

Concerning trend

Disturbingly, Finder’s research also revealed a concerning trend in underreporting.

Only 9% of scam victims reported the incident, while 1% remained oblivious to the fraudulent activity initially. Additionally, 1% of respondents discovered they were victims of bank card fraud only after the fact, highlighting the insidious nature of these schemes.

Pike urged consumers to exercise heightened scrutiny over their financial statements, recommending frequent monitoring for any unauthorised transactions.

She explained the importance of leveraging notification services offered by financial institutions to promptly identify and report suspicious activity.

“Early detection is key. If you notice any unfamiliar transactions, don’t hesitate to contact your bank immediately. Swift action can mitigate further unauthorised use of your card,” Pike advised, underscoring the critical role of proactive measures in combating card scams.

As Australians grapple with the escalating threat of card fraud, Pike’s counsel serves as a timely reminder of the necessity for heightened vigilance in an increasingly digitised financial landscape.

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