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JPMorgan predicts recession due to Trump’s tariffs

JPMorgan forecasts US recession due to Trump’s tariffs; GDP growth revised down, unemployment expected to rise.

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JPMorgan forecasts US recession due to Trump’s tariffs; GDP growth revised down, unemployment expected to rise.

In Short

JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts a US recession in 2025 due to Trump-era tariffs, with GDP growth potentially falling to -0.3% and unemployment rising to 5.3%.

Following these announcements, major financial institutions have lowered growth forecasts, while the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates despite inflation concerns.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has projected that the US economy is likely to enter a recession in 2025 due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

The bank’s chief US economist, Michael Feroli, indicated that real GDP growth could contract by 0.3%, a significant drop from the previously expected growth of 1.3%. This contraction may also lead to decreased hiring and an increase in the unemployment rate to 5.3%.

Following the announcement of the tariffs, the S&P 500 index experienced a significant decline, resulting in a loss of $5.4 trillion in market value over just two trading sessions.

US imports

Other financial institutions, including Barclays and Citi, have similarly adjusted their projections for US economic growth downward, with Citi estimating growth at only 0.1% for the year. UBS has forecast a more than 20% reduction in US imports in the coming quarters.

Feroli anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates starting in June, reducing the current benchmark rate to between 2.75% and 3%. This decision comes despite a projected rise in inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that there is no urgency to adjust rates amidst strong hiring figures and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.2%. Investors are expecting significant rate cuts by the end of the year.

Ahron Young is an award winning journalist who has covered major news events around the world. Ahron is the Managing Editor and Founder of TICKER NEWS.

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Stocks rebound after Trump eases China trade tensions

Stocks rebound 600 points as Trump eases China trade tensions, signalling optimism in markets following Friday’s sell-off

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Stocks rebound 600 points as Trump eases China trade tensions, signalling optimism in markets following Friday’s sell-off

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In Short:
– Stocks rose on Monday after Trump expressed optimism about trade relations with China.
– The Dow Jones gained 621 points, with significant increases in tech stocks and broad market recovery.
Stocks gained ground on Monday, recovering from Friday’s decline after President Donald Trump expressed optimism regarding trade relations with China, stating they “will all be fine.”The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 621 points, approximately 70% of its previous loss. The S&P 500 experienced a 1.6% increase, nearing a 60% recovery of its earlier drop. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 2.3%, bolstered by rebounds in technology stocks.

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Oracle’s stock surged over 5%, with AMD and Nvidia seeing 1% and 3% increases, respectively. Broadcom’s stock jumped 10% following the announcement of a partnership with OpenAI.

Trump’s comments hinted that he might not impose a significant increase in tariffs on China, which had previously caused market turmoil. Vice President JD Vance similarly indicated a willingness to negotiate with China, while also asserting that the U.S. holds advantages in potential trade discussions.

Broader Recovery

Monday’s trading saw a positive shift with four out of five S&P 500 stocks rising, indicating widespread recovery. Small-cap stocks also made gains, with the Russell 2000 rising over 2.5%.

Market concerns persist, however, with a government shutdown continuing and a major payroll deadline approaching on October 15. Earnings reports from major financial institutions, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, are expected this week, potentially impacting market sentiment.


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Australia revises superannuation tax plans for fairness

Australia revamps retirement tax with new thresholds and increased support for low-income earners amid political pressure

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Australia revamps retirement tax with new thresholds and increased support for low-income earners amid political pressure

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In Short:
– Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced a 40% tax on retirement balances over $10 million, aiding low-income earners.
– The reform improves the Low Income Superannuation Tax Offset, helping 1.3 million Australians with higher annual payments.
Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced a significant overhaul of the government’s superannuation tax proposal.The new plan introduces a 40 percent tax rate on retirement balances exceeding $10 million while increasing support for low-income earners.

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The announcement comes after months of political and industry pressure and represents a major shift from the original policy.

It addresses prior criticisms related to indexation and taxation of unrealised capital gains.

Under the revised policy, balances between $3 million and $10 million will face a 30 percent concessional tax rate.

Both thresholds will now be indexed to inflation to prevent bracket creep affecting middle-income Australians.

The government has also removed taxes on unrealised capital gains, with changes applying solely to realised earnings from 2026.

“This has been a contentious policy,” Chalmers stated, indicating that it affects less than 0.5 percent of Australians, with about 80,000 anticipated to have over $3 million in superannuation next year.

Key Benefits

The reform package significantly improves the Low Income Superannuation Tax Offset (LISTO).

Annual payments will rise from $500 to $810, with an increased eligibility threshold from $37,000 to $45,000 by 2027.

This adjustment will assist approximately 1.3 million Australians, mainly benefiting women.

Eligible workers could gain around $15,000 in retirement, increasing LISTO eligibility to 3.1 million Australians.

The changes could generate about $1.6 billion in net revenue by 2028-29, a decrease from the original $2.5 billion projection due to enhanced LISTO benefits and extended implementation.


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Bitcoin declines to $104,782 amid trade tensions

Bitcoin drops to $104,782 as Trump intensifies US-China trade tensions, impacting global markets

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Bitcoin drops to $104,782 as Trump intensifies US-China trade tensions, impacting global markets

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In Short:
– Bitcoin dropped to $104,782 due to heightened US-China trade tensions.
– The S&P 500 Index fell over 2% amid escalating market uncertainty.
Bitcoin fell to $104,782 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.On October 10, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, raising them to 100%.

The decision follows China’s recent restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, which are crucial for various technologies and manufacturing sectors.

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The trade dispute affected global markets, resulting in a more than 2% decline in the benchmark S&P 500 Index.

Bitcoin experienced an 8.4% drop at $104,782 by 17:20 ET, while Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, fell by 5.8% to $3,637 at 17:21 ET.


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