Australia’s unemployment held at 4.1% in May amid job loss; full-time roles surged, underemployment fell, and female participation rose to 60.9%, keeping RBA cautious despite rate cut speculation.

Australia’s unemployment rate held firm at 4.1% in May, despite a small drop of 2,500 jobs—falling short of forecasts.

But dig deeper: full-time jobs jumped by nearly 39,000, underemployment hit post-COVID lows, and female participation reached a record 60.9%.

With labour market resilience still strong, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to be swayed—though markets see an 80% chance of a July rate cut.

The RBA remains in a balancing act, cooling inflation, without choking growth.

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Central banks face challenges amid economic uncertainty, impacting policy decisions and investor confidence worldwide.

Central banks are facing significant uncertainty concerning economic growth and inflation, making their policy decisions increasingly challenging as they approach the end of their rate-cutting cycles.

This uncertainty is also impacting investors. Recently, Norway’s central bank surprised markets with an interest rate cut, while the U.S. Federal Reserve cautioned against relying heavily on its policy projections.

The Swiss National Bank responded to decreasing inflation and economic unpredictability by reducing its benchmark rate to 0% but may consider further cuts. The Bank of Canada has maintained its rate at 2.75%, suggesting a potential future cut in light of tariffs affecting the economy.

Sweden’s central bank cut its key rate as well, aiming to stimulate growth amid weak price pressures.

In New Zealand, expectations are for rates to remain steady after a recent reduction to protect its economy from global trade uncertainties. The European Central Bank has also cut rates, considering further adjustments to meet inflation goals.

The Federal Reserve is keeping rates steady, although further cuts are anticipated due to low inflation. In Britain, the Bank of England held rates but may continue cuts in response to weak labour indicators.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is prepared for rate cuts due to weak growth data and trade tensions, while Norway’s central bank has been cautious with its recent decision. The Bank of Japan remains the only bank in a tightening phase, balancing escalating tensions and tariff concerns with its monetary policies.

U.S. Federal Reserve revises economic forecasts downward, expecting growth slowdown and higher unemployment, but still plans rate cuts in 2024 and 2025.

At its latest meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve revised its economic forecasts downward, with growth trimmed, inflation nudged up, and unemployment expectations now higher.

Despite this gloomier outlook, the Fed still sees two rate cuts in 2025, but just one in 2024 and one in 2026, a major dial-back from earlier projections.

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