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Global markets bounce back after heavy blow

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Markets around the world are expected to rebound today after a day of heavy losses.

The Australian ASX has bounced back big time following from Wall Street overnight that offset those tremors we saw last week.

Australian shares rushed to an early gain on Tuesday with the ASX 200 up 1.3 per cent, partly retracing the 1.8 per cent dip on Monday as global financial markets steadied after the anticipated moves from the Federal Reserve to thwart inflation.

Wall Street stocks rallied, staging a strong bounce back from last week’s rout.

The Dow last week suffered its worst week since October 2020, dropping 3.4 percent.

It came as the US Federal Reserve shifts towards a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, which could lead to higher interest rates.

That spooked investors last week, and the pain was felt on markets around the world on Monday,.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to appear before a congressional panel, and the markets are bracing for that.

Yesterday, markets across Asia dropped in early trade over inflation concerns

In Japan, the Nikkei slumped 4 per cent, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped 1.45 per cent.

Mainland Chinese stocks were also down.

In South Korea, the market declined under 1 per cent.

The rollercoaster day for Australian investors

Australia’s share market dived in early trading after sharp falls on Wall Street on Monday.

The ASX 200 index fell as much as 1.5% to 7258 points.

It was the biggest decline in four weeks.

Sectors including Financials, Energy and Materials led early falls.

Commonwealth Bank fell 3.9% after a string of record highs in recent weeks.

The other major banks fell more than 2.2%.

Australian dollar is hitting a new low

So why has this happened? A big reason is following similar damage on Wall Street and in European markets which has been triggered by St Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard predicting US interest rates would rise next year, perhaps earlier than some would expect.

The Australian dollar was firmer on Monday morning, buying around 75.05 US cents, after hitting its lowest level in six months as the US dollar strengthened.

Bullard added to expectations that US interest rates could rise sooner rather than later.

He is one of seven Fed policymakers to predict a first rate hike in 2022.

“This suggests the Fed will move earlier than the RBA and will be moving by slightly more than the RBA over 2023, which has implications for the [Australian dollar],” St George chief economist Besa Deda wrote.

Bitcoin takes a further tumble

Bitcoin fell to a two-week low amid an intensifying cryptocurrency crackdown in China.

The largest virtual currency fell 10% to $32,350 as of 8:50 a.m. in New York. Ether declined 13% to $1,950.

China announced on Monday that it summoned officials from its biggest banks to a meeting to reiterate a ban on providing cryptocurrency services. It’s the latest sign that China plan to do whatever it takes to close any loopholes left in crypto trading.

According to bitcoin aficionado Stephan Livera this latest crackdown, on one of the main regions for bitcoin mining, is the real deal.

This time seems like a more serious time. The largest mining pool operators have come out…so for example the leader of F2Pool (has said) from our numbers we’re seeing a very large drop in the amount of hash rate that’s coming to our pool out of China.” 

STEPHAN LIVERA, MINISTRY OF NODES

Bitcoin has many complex layers, it’s important to remember we’re talking specifically about bitcoin mining.

Mining is simply the process that sees new bitcoins entered into circulation. It’s also a critical component of the maintenance and development of the blockchain ledger. Mining is performed using very sophisticated computers that solve extremely complex computational math problems.

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Money

US stocks face tests from Tesla, Netflix earnings

US markets brace for Tesla and Netflix earnings amid rising volatility and delayed inflation data

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US markets brace for Tesla and Netflix earnings amid rising volatility and delayed inflation data

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In Short:
– Earnings reports from Tesla and Netflix might affect U.S. stock performance next week amid high inflation concerns.
– Increased market volatility arises from U.S.-China trade tensions and fewer S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend.
This coming week, earnings reports from companies including Tesla and Netflix are anticipated to impact U.S. stock performance.
Investors are also awaiting delayed U.S. inflation data, which could test market stability as it remains near record highs.Recent trading activity has shown increased volatility, influenced by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns regarding regional bank credit risks. The CBOE volatility index has seen a rise, indicating increased market uncertainty.

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The S&P 500 entered its fourth year of growth amidst these fluctuations, having previously experienced a period of calm. Experts suggest market risks are intensifying as valuations reach peak levels.

Market Volatility

Concerns regarding U.S.-China trade relations escalated last week when the U.S. threatened to raise tariffs by November 1 over China’s rare-earth export policies. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping in two weeks to discuss these issues.

Despite these challenges, major stock indexes gained ground over the week, with the S&P 500 up 13.3% year-to-date. However, a noticeable decline in the number of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend raises caution among investors about underlying market weaknesses.

The upcoming third-quarter earnings will be closely monitored, especially as the government shutdown halts economic data releases. Companies like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, RTX, and IBM are due to report. The delayed U.S. consumer price index is also expected to provide crucial insights ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on October 28-29.


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Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent

Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent in September, prompting calls for potential Reserve Bank interest rate cut

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Australia’s unemployment rate rises to 4.5 per cent in September, prompting calls for potential Reserve Bank interest rate cut

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In Short:
– Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, the highest since November 2021.
– Economists note a cooling labour market, with fewer job ads and increased participation rate amid rising living costs.
Australia’s unemployment rate increased to 4.5 per cent in September, up from 4.3 per cent in August.It marks the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate since November 2021.

Economists suggest that the Reserve Bank should consider another interest rate cut next month. BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese noted a slowdown in employment demand as the labour market struggles to accommodate job seekers.

The number of officially unemployed rose by 33,900 in September, while the employment count increased by 14,900. The labour force expanded by 48,800 people, resulting in a participation rate rise of 0.1 percentage points to 67 per cent, returning to July levels.

In trend terms, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3 per cent.

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Labour Market

BDO chief economist Anders Magnusson stated that while the unemployment rate has increased, the labour market is cooling, not collapsing.

He pointed out that the 14,900 jobs added in September were slightly below the average for the past year.

A growing participation rate indicates that rising living costs are prompting more individuals to seek employment. Magnusson said the release confirms a gradual cooling of the labour market that keeps the Reserve Bank on track without necessitating immediate action.

He added that hiring activity is slowing, signalled by a 3.3 per cent drop in job advertisements in September, the largest monthly decrease since February 2024.

Despite this, he does not foresee a rate cut in November.


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Money

Stocks rebound after Trump eases China trade tensions

Stocks rebound 600 points as Trump eases China trade tensions, signalling optimism in markets following Friday’s sell-off

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Stocks rebound 600 points as Trump eases China trade tensions, signalling optimism in markets following Friday’s sell-off

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In Short:
– Stocks rose on Monday after Trump expressed optimism about trade relations with China.
– The Dow Jones gained 621 points, with significant increases in tech stocks and broad market recovery.
Stocks gained ground on Monday, recovering from Friday’s decline after President Donald Trump expressed optimism regarding trade relations with China, stating they “will all be fine.”The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 621 points, approximately 70% of its previous loss. The S&P 500 experienced a 1.6% increase, nearing a 60% recovery of its earlier drop. The Nasdaq Composite increased by 2.3%, bolstered by rebounds in technology stocks.

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Oracle’s stock surged over 5%, with AMD and Nvidia seeing 1% and 3% increases, respectively. Broadcom’s stock jumped 10% following the announcement of a partnership with OpenAI.

Trump’s comments hinted that he might not impose a significant increase in tariffs on China, which had previously caused market turmoil. Vice President JD Vance similarly indicated a willingness to negotiate with China, while also asserting that the U.S. holds advantages in potential trade discussions.

Broader Recovery

Monday’s trading saw a positive shift with four out of five S&P 500 stocks rising, indicating widespread recovery. Small-cap stocks also made gains, with the Russell 2000 rising over 2.5%.

Market concerns persist, however, with a government shutdown continuing and a major payroll deadline approaching on October 15. Earnings reports from major financial institutions, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, are expected this week, potentially impacting market sentiment.


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