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Money

Global markets bounce back after heavy blow

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Markets around the world are expected to rebound today after a day of heavy losses.

The Australian ASX has bounced back big time following from Wall Street overnight that offset those tremors we saw last week.

Australian shares rushed to an early gain on Tuesday with the ASX 200 up 1.3 per cent, partly retracing the 1.8 per cent dip on Monday as global financial markets steadied after the anticipated moves from the Federal Reserve to thwart inflation.

Wall Street stocks rallied, staging a strong bounce back from last week’s rout.

The Dow last week suffered its worst week since October 2020, dropping 3.4 percent.

It came as the US Federal Reserve shifts towards a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, which could lead to higher interest rates.

That spooked investors last week, and the pain was felt on markets around the world on Monday,.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to appear before a congressional panel, and the markets are bracing for that.

Yesterday, markets across Asia dropped in early trade over inflation concerns

In Japan, the Nikkei slumped 4 per cent, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng dropped 1.45 per cent.

Mainland Chinese stocks were also down.

In South Korea, the market declined under 1 per cent.

The rollercoaster day for Australian investors

Australia’s share market dived in early trading after sharp falls on Wall Street on Monday.

The ASX 200 index fell as much as 1.5% to 7258 points.

It was the biggest decline in four weeks.

Sectors including Financials, Energy and Materials led early falls.

Commonwealth Bank fell 3.9% after a string of record highs in recent weeks.

The other major banks fell more than 2.2%.

Australian dollar is hitting a new low

So why has this happened? A big reason is following similar damage on Wall Street and in European markets which has been triggered by St Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard predicting US interest rates would rise next year, perhaps earlier than some would expect.

The Australian dollar was firmer on Monday morning, buying around 75.05 US cents, after hitting its lowest level in six months as the US dollar strengthened.

Bullard added to expectations that US interest rates could rise sooner rather than later.

He is one of seven Fed policymakers to predict a first rate hike in 2022.

“This suggests the Fed will move earlier than the RBA and will be moving by slightly more than the RBA over 2023, which has implications for the [Australian dollar],” St George chief economist Besa Deda wrote.

Bitcoin takes a further tumble

Bitcoin fell to a two-week low amid an intensifying cryptocurrency crackdown in China.

The largest virtual currency fell 10% to $32,350 as of 8:50 a.m. in New York. Ether declined 13% to $1,950.

China announced on Monday that it summoned officials from its biggest banks to a meeting to reiterate a ban on providing cryptocurrency services. It’s the latest sign that China plan to do whatever it takes to close any loopholes left in crypto trading.

According to bitcoin aficionado Stephan Livera this latest crackdown, on one of the main regions for bitcoin mining, is the real deal.

This time seems like a more serious time. The largest mining pool operators have come out…so for example the leader of F2Pool (has said) from our numbers we’re seeing a very large drop in the amount of hash rate that’s coming to our pool out of China.” 

STEPHAN LIVERA, MINISTRY OF NODES

Bitcoin has many complex layers, it’s important to remember we’re talking specifically about bitcoin mining.

Mining is simply the process that sees new bitcoins entered into circulation. It’s also a critical component of the maintenance and development of the blockchain ledger. Mining is performed using very sophisticated computers that solve extremely complex computational math problems.

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Money

RBA stands pat on interest rates as hopes dim for future cuts

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RBA stands pat on interest rates as hopes dim for future cuts

Stella Huangfu, University of Sydney

The Reserve Bank kept the cash rate steady at 3.6% at today’s meeting. In its post-meeting statement, the central bank said the monetary policy board

judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious.

This pause follows three cuts earlier this year — in February, May and August, each by 25 basis points — which lowered the cash rate from 4.1% to its current level. Governor Michele Bullock said the bank is watching those previous cuts work through the economy.

Bullock stressed that while inflation has eased from its peak, progress remains uneven, and the bank is not ready to declare victory.

For now, patience is the safer course. The next big test will be the September quarter inflation report, due at the end of October. That release will go a long way to deciding whether cuts resume later this year or slip into 2026. Market pricing, once confident of a November move, now sees the odds as little better than a coin toss.

“By the next meeting in November, we’ll have more data on the labour market and inflation data for the September quarter,” Bullock told a press conference after the meeting.

Why the RBA is waiting

The monthly consumer price index (CPI) for August showed annual inflation rising to 3.0%, up from 2.8% in July. Although this is a 12-month high, much of the increase came from the expiry of electricity rebates — a temporary factor the bank had already anticipated.

Bullock has repeatedly said the Reserve Bank puts more weight on the quarterly “trimmed mean” inflation measure — a point she emphasised most recently before the House of Representatives economics committee. This measure strips out one-off price swings and gives a clearer picture of underlying inflation.

Even so, the monthly figures show the annual trimmed mean edged down from 2.7% in July to 2.6% in August. That suggests the underlying trend remains one of gradual disinflation (a slowing in the pace of price increases), despite the lift in the headline rate.

Bullock told reporters:

The monthly data are volatile […] I don’t want to suggest that inflation is running away, but we just need to be a little bit cautious.

Progress is not yet secure. Inflation must stay within the 2–3% target range on a sustained basis before the Reserve Bank can cut with confidence. Moving too early risks undoing hard-won gains and forcing harsher measures later.



Other data reinforce this cautious approach. June quarter economic growth surprised on the upside, showing the economy is more resilient than expected. Meanwhile, unemployment has ticked higher but remains low, pointing to a labour market that is cooling only gradually.

As the statement noted,

private consumption is picking up as real household incomes rise […] The housing market is strengthening […] Credit is readily available to both households and businesses.

Together, these signals give the Reserve Bank space to pause rather than rush into easing.

A big shift in expectations

The major banks have also adjusted their forecasts. NAB has ruled out any further move this year, dropping its earlier forecasts for November and February cuts and now expecting the next reduction in May 2026. Westpac still expects a November cut, but acknowledges the timing could slip.

Financial markets have also pared back their bets. Pricing once implied near-certainty of a November cut, but that probability has now fallen to roughly 50-50.

The September quarter consumer price index will be decisive: a softer result could revive expectations of an earlier cut, while a stronger one would reinforce the view that rate cuts will not resume until 2026.

With the economy stronger than forecast and CPI a touch higher, both banks and markets are pushing out the timing of cuts. The Reserve Bank’s message is clear: inflation must show sustained progress before policy can be eased. Until then, the next cut is a matter of when, not if.

Rates around the world

The Reserve Bank is not alone in being cautious. In the United States, the Federal Reserve delivered three cuts in 2024, but only made its first cut of 2025 in September. The European Central Bank has reduced rates four times this year, but has kept policy steady since June.

Political tensions, volatile energy prices and fragile global growth all add to the uncertainty, reinforcing the case for patience in Australia.

For households, today’s decision offers no relief. Mortgage repayments remain at an elevated level and consumer spending is weak.

Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank said it will remain data-driven and responsive to risks:

The Board will be attentive to the data […] focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.

For households, that means the wait for relief goes on. The next move is a cut, but today’s decision makes clear it won’t be rushed.The Conversation

Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Money

Markets remain strong amid potential government shutdown fears

Markets remain strong as investors anticipate jobs data while ignoring government shutdown and tariff concerns

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Markets remain strong as investors anticipate jobs data while ignoring government shutdown and tariff concerns

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In Short:
– Major indices are near session highs, with the Dow up 382 points and resilient to shutdown concerns.
– Rising Treasury yields may challenge bullish sentiment, while upcoming economic reports will influence market direction.
Major indices are trading near session highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 382 points, the S&P 500 by 41 points, and the Nasdaq Composite by 100 points.
Investors seem undeterred by the looming government shutdown and new tariff announcements. Despite the challenges, markets appear resilient due to previous experiences with shutdowns.Banner

This coming week, markets should brace for monthly jobs data, assuming no shutdown occurs. Previous initial claims reports have lessened after reaching 263,000 on September 11.

Technical indicators show promise following a retreat to the 20-day SMA. The end of bearish seasonality approaches, coinciding with Q3 earnings season.

Market Perspective

However, rising Treasury yields could pose a challenge for bullish sentiment. The 10-year yield has increased over the past eight trading sessions and may close at a three-week peak.

If it stays below 4.25%, it could support ongoing bullish trends. A notable risk remains the potential negative impact of the jobs report.

Upcoming economic reports include pending home sales, consumer confidence, and nonfarm payrolls, all key to market direction.


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Money

Crypto market plummets near $1 billion in liquidations

Crypto markets crash as liquidations approach $1 billion, marking a severe downturn in September 2025

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Crypto markets crash as liquidations approach $1 billion, marking a severe downturn in September 2025

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In Short:
– Cryptocurrency markets declined significantly, with liquidations nearing $1 billion and Bitcoin below $110,000.
– $442 million in positions were liquidated on Thursday, with Ethereum most affected, raising trader concerns.
Cryptocurrency markets faced significant declines on Thursday, with liquidations nearing $1 billion, contributing to a larger selloff that has cost the sector over $160 billion in market capitalisation.
Bitcoin fell below $110,000, trading around $111,400, while Ethereum dipped below the critical $4,000 support level, marking its lowest point in seven weeks.
The global crypto market capitalisation dropped by 2.2% to $3.91 trillion.Banner

Liquidation reports revealed that $442 million in positions were forcibly closed on Thursday, with Ethereum most affected, accounting for over $180 million.

The previous week saw a larger liquidation event, with $1.7 billion wiped out. Traders are concerned as a significant number of long positions were liquidated in this downturn.

Market Trends

Market analysts highlight a pattern of leveraged trading leading to cascading selloffs. Seasonal factors, regulatory uncertainty, and a strengthening US dollar contributed to the declines.

Despite the downturn, some large investors are taking the opportunity to accumulate assets.


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