Credit-card firms prepare for economic downturn risks

Credit card companies prepare for economic downturn; rising delinquencies prompt tighter lending despite continued consumer spending.

In Short

US credit card companies are preparing for a possible economic downturn by tightening lending and increasing reserves, even as consumer spending remains high.

While the wealthy continue to spend, access to credit is diminishing for lower-income individuals, and caution is growing among banks.

Credit card companies in the US are preparing for a potential economic downturn despite current consumer spending levels. Businesses are increasing reserves and tightening lending as delinquencies rise to pre-pandemic levels.

JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup have augmented their rainy day funds to mitigate expected losses. Retail card issuer Synchrony is applying stricter lending criteria, while U.S. Bancorp is targeting wealthier customers to reduce risk.

Although large lenders are still reporting profits, the effects of Trump’s trade war have yet to reflect in financial results. Recent data shows that Americans are spending and borrowing at a faster pace compared to last year.

Travel and entertainment

However, there are warning signs as consumers begin to cut back on nonessential expenditures such as travel and entertainment. The trend of cardholders making only minimum payments is above pre-pandemic levels.

Despite consumers showing confidence in spending in early April, banks remain cautious. They are redirecting their marketing strategies towards affluent households, recognising that the wealthiest individuals account for a significant proportion of total spending.

Conversely, access to credit is tightening for lower-income individuals, with Synchrony reporting declines in active accounts and purchase volumes. American Express, meanwhile, continues to perform well among high-income clients, with strong consumer spending growth reported.

Unemployment rates among white-collar workers remain low, offering some stability in credit card portfolios for certain issuers.