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Brace, brace, brace: commodity prices surge

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It was all meant to fall into place: The world gets vaccinated, and the recovery from the pandemic-doom begins. But soaring energy prices are about to put the crunch on China, and then the rest of the world.

The latest bout of commodity-price surge has taken markets by surprise just as major central banks were planning to find a path out of their stimulus measures.

But the price of commodities may put an end to that sort of wishful thinking on the part of federal treasurers and the Fed.

INNER MONGOLIA, CHINA

OIL, GAS RISE

Oil’s climbed to more than $80 a barrel for the first time in three years, natural gas for October delivery traded at the costliest in seven years and the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index rose to the highest level in a decade. 

The rising cost of power, as well as intermittent power cuts to Chinese factories as Beijing tries to force reduced emissions, could now lead to surging prices for Chinese goods.

Sharp cuts in production across a range of energy-intensive industries in China are now expected to drag growth lower this year, with economists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Morgan Stanley cutting forecasts.

Trader on the New York Stock Exchange
Trader on the New York Stock Exchange

WALL STREET BRACES FOR IMPACT

Investors have been caught by surprise, having spend much of the year planning for a sudden recovery. Wall Street stocks ended sharply lower on Tuesday in a broad sell-off driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields.

It was the S&P 500 index’s biggest one-day percentage drop since May, and the Nasdaq’s largest since March.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite index were on track for their largest monthly declines since September 2020.

“The big picture is the sudden surge in the past week of yields, which has led to a ‘sell first, ask questions later’ mentality.”

Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial

In the US, rising costs for households and companies are hitting confidence while pushing inflation faster than economists had expected only a few months ago. 

In the U.K., consumer confidence fell in September at its sharpest pace since almost a year ago as Britons brace for a looming income squeeze. 

All three major U.S. stock indexes slid nearly 2%, with tech and tech-adjacent stocks weighing heaviest as investors lost their risk appetite.

“(But) there are multiple factors weighing on sentiment today,” Detrick added. “The back-and-forth in Washington with the debt ceiling and the spending bill and potential higher taxes have weighed on overall investor psyche and has led to a pretty good sized sell-off.”

THE SILVER LINING

Thankfully for advanced economies, they have been able to recover from the “COVID recession” better than anticipated a year ago. 

Many officials around the world are still hopeful the current spike in prices will fade without the need for action. 

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde believes the key challenge for policy makers is that “we do not overreact to transitory supply shocks that have no bearing on the medium term.”

Ahron Young is an award winning journalist who has covered major news events around the world. Ahron is the Managing Editor and Founder of TICKER NEWS.

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Australia’s stalled economy forces businesses to innovate or die

Australia’s economy is slowing with 0.2% GDP growth; experts suggest interest rate cuts, prompting businesses to adapt for growth.

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Australia’s economy is slowing with 0.2% GDP growth; experts suggest interest rate cuts, prompting businesses to adapt for growth.


Australia’s economy is slowing fast, with GDP growth at just 0.2% and output per person in decline. Experts are now predicting steep interest rate cuts to avoid recession.

What can businesses do to adapt and grow in this climate? Subscribe to never miss an episode of Ticker – https://www.youtube.com/@weareticker

#AustralianEconomy #RBA #InterestRates #BusinessStrategy #EconomicNews #GDP #TickerNews #AustraliaFinance

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World Bank predicts U.S. growth cut by tariffs

World Bank forecasts U.S. growth halving due to tariffs; global economy also faces significant slowdown, especially in exports.

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World Bank forecasts U.S. growth halving due to tariffs; global economy also faces significant slowdown, especially in exports.

In Short:
The World Bank has downgraded U.S. growth projections to 1.4% for 2025 due to President Trump’s tariff policies, warning that increased tariffs could worsen the global economic slowdown. The report highlights a decline in growth for multiple economies, with a particular emphasis on the negative impact on living standards and the need for negotiated trade barriers.

The World Bank has downgraded its growth projections for the U.S. economy, forecasting an increase of just 1.4% in 2025, down from the previous year’s 2.8%. This reduction is attributed to President Trump’s tariff policies, which are anticipated to hamper both U.S. and global growth.

The World Bank’s latest report highlights an expected slowdown in multiple economies, including the eurozone, Japan, and India. Mexico is projected to experience the most significant impact, with growth dropping to 0.2% from 1.5%.

Exacerbate the slowdown

Amid these forecasts, the World Bank warned that a further rise in tariffs could exacerbate the slowdown. If tariffs were raised by an additional 10 percentage points, global growth could plummet to 1.8% this year and 2% in 2026. Such an escalation would lead to reduced trade, declining confidence, and increased market turmoil.

Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist, noted that if a course correction is not made, the negative effects on living standards could be severe. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has also voiced concerns about the implications of tariffs, predicting a U.S. growth rate of 1.6% with inflation approaching 4%.

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What Virgin Australia’s return to the ASX will mean for investors

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Virgin Australia is coming back to the share market. Here’s what this new chapter could mean

Petr Podrouzek/Shutterstock

Rico Merkert, University of Sydney

It is finally happening. After five years of being a private company, Virgin Australia will relist on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on June 24. The company is expected to raise A$685 million through the initial public offering (IPO).

So, who will benefit from Virgin Australia’s return to the share market? Having paid $3.5 billion for the bankrupt carrier back in 2020, private equity firm Bain Capital will be the most immediate winner.

Earlier this year, Bain had sold 25% of the company to Qatar Airways. Now, with the IPO, Bain will reduce its stake from about 70% down to 40%. Most of the $685 million raised will go straight to Bain.

With Virgin’s anticipated market capitalisation close to $2.3 billion and enterprise value of reportedly up to $3.6 billion, it is now evident that Bain has – with Jayne Hrdlicka at the helm of the airline – not only managed to turn the company around, but to also profit nicely from doing so.

Without Bain’s rescue at the beginning of the pandemic (which was catastrophic for airlines globally), the situation may have become quite detrimental for travellers. It also avoided having the Australian taxpayer foot the bill for a bailout.

Will the airline’s customers be better off after this? It will depend on how much, if anything, Bain chooses to reinvest in Virgin after this share offering is over. But Virgin has also recorded substantial recent profits, some of which are expected to be spent on newer aircraft and improved services.

Stronger competition for Qantas?

Looking at the strategies of both Virgin Australia and its biggest competitor, Qantas, in recent years, it seems both have learned to love playing the duopoly game.

Based on our own calculations, Virgin controls roughly 33% of Australia’s domestic seat capacity and the Qantas group (which includes Jetstar) much of the rest on the country’s core flight network.

In the 2010s, the two airlines were out-competing themselves in adding capacity to the market, which drove down yields (or revenue per passenger) and nearly killed Virgin Australia 1.0.

Now, Qantas and Virgin have new chief executives who understand both airlines can be very profitable if they show some (capacity) discipline in how many seats they create and sell.

Better services

For that reason, it’s likely not much will change in terms of competition, at least in the domestic market. But this is only true as far as capacity is concerned.

It seems reasonable to assume Virgin’s recent profits and any funds from the capital raise will only be used to support future growth if it is profitable. The majority of the profits will likely go towards fleet renewal and improvement of the airline’s product.

For consumers, this wouldn’t necessarily mean lower airfares in the domestic market. But it would mean newer aircraft and enhanced services, which is a positive for both flyers and the environment.

International departures

Virgin Australia will become a more formidable competitor to Qantas, thanks to its newly formed relationship with international partner Qatar Airways and the additional cash from relisting.

It will be interesting to observe what Qatar will do next and whether a new player – perhaps Singapore Airlines – will enter the scene and take a stake in the airline once Virgin Australia is trading publicly again.

It would not be the first time an international airline has taken a stake in Virgin Australia, and could create some interesting dynamics.

Another beneficiary is Virgin Australia’s management team, who’ve been somewhat shackled by the priority of getting the IPO off the ground. The IPO will free up management to deploy resources towards more longer-term priorities.

Many will see a significant payday – it’s estimated staff are sitting on shares that could soon collectively be worth $180 million.

Why now?

Bain Capital has timed this IPO carefully. Virgin Australia has (in tandem with Qantas) produced a stellar financial performance in the last financial year. It may deliver an even better one in the current reporting period.

To maximise returns, it is likely Bain did not want to waste the opportunity to capitalise on the moment. Global markets are still full of volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. What may diminish is the financial performance of the core business Bain Capital is trying to sell.

At $2.90 a share, Virgin Australia will have a price-to-earnings ratio (used to assess how relatively expensive a share price is) of seven times its expected earnings this financial year. This is lower than Qantas’ ratio of ten times expected earnings this financial year.

Profits are likely to remain high this year, with continuing strong demand, high yields and low jet fuel prices. The brokers and underwriting investment banks will use this to sell the story.

IPOs can sometimes deliver those already holding shares in a company significant day-one windfall profits. In this case, however, Bain’s expertise in the venture capital market means it is unlikely to leave any money on the table.

One may also argue while Virgin appears to be priced at a discount compared to Qantas, there may be legitimate reasons for the price differential, such as Qantas’ very profitable loyalty business.

Given uncertainties around demand and geopolitical tensions, there is no guarantee the share price of Qantas will remain at record highs for too long, which means the opportunity to present Virgin shares as a bargain may be short-lived.

In the long term, it is widely agreed airlines are by definition volatile investments and not necessarily something the average investor should have in their portfolio.

Moving forward

Symbolically, the decision for Virgin to use a new stock ticker – VGN instead of the old VAH – may avoid bringing back bad memories.

Five years can be a lifetime in aviation, but maybe not to bond holders who got just 10 cents in the dollar and shareholders (including the large airline partners who held equity stakes) who got nothing when the airline collapsed in 2020.

From a strategy perspective, it will be important for management to avoid history repeating itself with international airlines buying into Virgin and securing board seats.

This can be one way of influencing the strategy of the carrier’s domestic arm to funnel more passengers to their own international flights.

It is positive, for both Virgin Australia and the Australian aviation industry, that Bain Capital appears set to pull this off and that the revitalised airline is now truly Virgin Australia 2.0.


Clarification: this article has been amended to clarify that most of the $685 million raised will go to Bain Capital.

Rico Merkert, Professor in Transport and Supply Chain Management and Deputy Director, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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