Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 3.9% last month, highlighting a robust job market and influencing interest rate forecasts.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported an increase of 35,600 jobs, marking the unemployment rate’s first decline below 4% since March.

Economists attribute this growth primarily to expansion in public service and government-funded roles in healthcare and education.

Source: AFR/ABS

Following the job report, Australian shares lost momentum while the local dollar rose by 0.7%, reflecting positive market reactions.

Despite the strong job numbers, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock indicated a potential cash rate cut from 4.35% as early as February, suggesting confidence in returning inflation to the target range.

New expectations

This shift in the RBA’s stance revives expectations for a pre-election rate cut by the Albanese government, which had seemed unlikely amid solid job data.

NAB’s head of market economics, Tapas Strickland, noted that the employment figures may challenge the RBA’s confidence in its inflation projections.

The current unemployment rate averages 4% this December quarter, below the RBA’s prediction of 4.3%.

Betashares chief economist David Bassanese suggested that the strong employment report diminishes chances for a February rate cut, with May seen as a more likely time for adjustment post-election.