Money

Australia’s productivity gap widens compares to the U.S.

Published

1 year ago

February 9, 2024

Ahron Young

Australia’s ongoing efforts to enhance productivity growth have yielded significant reforms, yet its GDP per capita lags behind that of the United States.

A recent analysis delves into the fundamental disparities between the two nations’ productivity levels, shedding light on potential explanations for this gap.

The examination, conducted by the Australian Government Treasury, underscores the critical role of productivity in shaping GDP per capita differentials.

Despite comparable hours worked per capita between Australia and the US over the past four decades, Australia’s GDP per hour worked has consistently remained at 75-85% of its US counterpart.

Income gap

This disparity underscores the significance of productivity in explaining the Australia-US income gap.

For instance, if Australian labor productivity matched US levels in 2002, Australia’s GDP per capita could have been $7,900 higher.

Consequently, closing the productivity gap holds promise for future GDP per capita gains and could propel Australia closer to the global productivity frontier represented by the US.

The analysis examines three primary explanations for the productivity gap: variances in human capital, differences in product and labor market policies, and disparities in geographic and historical contexts.

While human capital disparities, particularly in educational attainment, contribute to the gap, differences in physical capital per hour worked appear less significant.

FILE PHOTO: Tourists walk around the forecourt of Australia’s Parliament House in Canberra, Australia. REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo

Geography and history

While policy reforms could narrow the productivity gap by up to one-sixth, factors such as geography and history may impede Australia’s ability to fully close the gap.

These findings emphasize the multifaceted nature of the Australia-US productivity gap and the importance of targeted policy measures to bridge it.

However, the analysis acknowledges substantial challenges in measuring productivity, citing statistical and methodological issues inherent in international comparisons.

Issues such as varying industry measurement methodologies and exchange rate fluctuations complicate accurate assessments of productivity differentials.

The exploration of Australia-US productivity disparities underscores the complexities of economic analysis and the importance of nuanced approaches to policy formulation.

Money

Aussie job market defies expectations with stable 4.1% unemployment rate

Australia’s unemployment held at 4.1% in May amid job loss; full-time roles surged, underemployment fell, and female participation rose to 60.9%, keeping RBA cautious despite rate cut speculation.

Published

2 days ago

June 20, 2025

ticker NEWS

Australia’s unemployment held at 4.1% in May amid job loss; full-time roles surged, underemployment fell, and female participation rose to 60.9%, keeping RBA cautious despite rate cut speculation.

Australia’s unemployment rate held firm at 4.1% in May, despite a small drop of 2,500 jobs—falling short of forecasts.

But dig deeper: full-time jobs jumped by nearly 39,000, underemployment hit post-COVID lows, and female participation reached a record 60.9%.

With labour market resilience still strong, the Reserve Bank is unlikely to be swayed—though markets see an 80% chance of a July rate cut.

The RBA remains in a balancing act, cooling inflation, without choking growth.

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Money

Central banks struggle with economic uncertainty and rates

Central banks face challenges amid economic uncertainty, impacting policy decisions and investor confidence worldwide.

Published

2 days ago

June 20, 2025

Ahron Young

Central banks face challenges amid economic uncertainty, impacting policy decisions and investor confidence worldwide.

In Short:
Central banks are grappling with economic uncertainty, prompting various interest rate cuts globally to stimulate growth. Many central banks, including those in Norway, Sweden, and Japan, are adjusting rates in response to inflation and trade concerns, while others like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are considering future cuts.

Central banks are facing significant uncertainty concerning economic growth and inflation, making their policy decisions increasingly challenging as they approach the end of their rate-cutting cycles.

This uncertainty is also impacting investors. Recently, Norway’s central bank surprised markets with an interest rate cut, while the U.S. Federal Reserve cautioned against relying heavily on its policy projections.

The Swiss National Bank responded to decreasing inflation and economic unpredictability by reducing its benchmark rate to 0% but may consider further cuts. The Bank of Canada has maintained its rate at 2.75%, suggesting a potential future cut in light of tariffs affecting the economy.

Sweden’s central bank cut its key rate as well, aiming to stimulate growth amid weak price pressures.

In New Zealand, expectations are for rates to remain steady after a recent reduction to protect its economy from global trade uncertainties. The European Central Bank has also cut rates, considering further adjustments to meet inflation goals.

The Federal Reserve is keeping rates steady, although further cuts are anticipated due to low inflation. In Britain, the Bank of England held rates but may continue cuts in response to weak labour indicators.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is prepared for rate cuts due to weak growth data and trade tensions, while Norway’s central bank has been cautious with its recent decision. The Bank of Japan remains the only bank in a tightening phase, balancing escalating tensions and tariff concerns with its monetary policies.

Money

Fed signals slower cuts amid rising risks

U.S. Federal Reserve revises economic forecasts downward, expecting growth slowdown and higher unemployment, but still plans rate cuts in 2024 and 2025.

Published

3 days ago

June 19, 2025

ticker NEWS

U.S. Federal Reserve revises economic forecasts downward, expecting growth slowdown and higher unemployment, but still plans rate cuts in 2024 and 2025.

At its latest meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve revised its economic forecasts downward, with growth trimmed, inflation nudged up, and unemployment expectations now higher.

Despite this gloomier outlook, the Fed still sees two rate cuts in 2025, but just one in 2024 and one in 2026, a major dial-back from earlier projections.

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