In Short:
– Rate cut likelihood by the Reserve Bank has decreased due to a rise in annual inflation to 3.2 per cent.
– Significant price increases in housing, recreation, and transport are raising concerns for the Reserve Bank.

The likelihood of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank has decreased significantly after a surge in annual inflation.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that inflation for the year ending September rose to 3.2 per cent, reflecting a 1.1 per cent increase.

Trimmed mean inflation, a crucial measure for the Reserve Bank, was recorded at 1 per cent for the quarter and 3 per cent for the year. The bank anticipates inflation to reach 3 per cent by year-end, while trimmed mean inflation is expected to slightly decrease.

The quarterly rise of 1.3 per cent in September exceeded expectations. Governor Bullock noted that a deviation from the Reserve Bank’s projections could have material implications.

Financial markets reacted promptly, with the Australian dollar rising against the US dollar, while the ASX200 index fell.

The most significant price increases were observed in housing, recreation, and transport, indicating widespread price pressures that concern the Reserve Bank.

Despite the unexpected inflation rise, some economists believe the Reserve Bank may still consider rate cuts in December, viewing current price spikes as temporary due to the winding back of subsidies.

Economic Pressures

Broad-based economic pressures suggest that the Reserve Bank may not reduce interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Analysts highlight the need for ongoing support for households facing cost-of-living challenges.

In Short:
– U.S. stocks rose to record highs on Friday due to lower inflation and strong corporate earnings.
– Key earnings reports from major companies are expected next week, influencing market trends.

U.S. stocks rose to record highs on Friday due to lower-than-expected inflation data and positive corporate earnings.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieved their largest weekly gains since August. The Dow saw its biggest jump from Friday to Friday since June.

The Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index was slightly cooler than analysts’ predictions, easing concerns about inflation impacts from tariffs. This development suggests a likely interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting.

Ryan Detrick from Carson Group noted the positive inflation news may facilitate forthcoming Fed rate cuts. Despite the ongoing government shutdown affecting data releases, this CPI report provided much-needed clarity.

Earnings reports are continuing, with 143 S&P 500 companies having reported results. Growth expectations for third-quarter earnings have risen to 10.4%. Detrick indicated a strong opening to the earnings season with a significant percentage of companies exceeding expectations.

This coming week, key earnings will be reported from Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple, alongside industrial companies like Caterpillar and Boeing.

The Dow rose 472.51 points to 47,207.12. The S&P 500 increased by 53.25 points to 6,791.69, while the Nasdaq gained 263.07 points, reaching 23,204.87.

Alphabet gained 2.7% following a deal expansion with Anthropic. Coinbase saw a 9.8% increase from a JPMorgan upgrade. In contrast, Deckers Outdoor’s shares fell 15.2% after lowering sales forecasts.

Market Trends

Advancing stocks on the NYSE outnumbered decliners by 2.18 to 1. The S&P 500 had 34 new highs, with the Nasdaq recording 124.

Trading volume was 19.04 billion shares, lower than the average of the past 20 days.

In Short:
– Earnings reports from Tesla and Netflix might affect U.S. stock performance next week amid high inflation concerns.
– Increased market volatility arises from U.S.-China trade tensions and fewer S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend.

This coming week, earnings reports from companies including Tesla and Netflix are anticipated to impact U.S. stock performance.

Investors are also awaiting delayed U.S. inflation data, which could test market stability as it remains near record highs.Recent trading activity has shown increased volatility, influenced by ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns regarding regional bank credit risks. The CBOE volatility index has seen a rise, indicating increased market uncertainty.

The S&P 500 entered its fourth year of growth amidst these fluctuations, having previously experienced a period of calm. Experts suggest market risks are intensifying as valuations reach peak levels.

Market Volatility

Concerns regarding U.S.-China trade relations escalated last week when the U.S. threatened to raise tariffs by November 1 over China’s rare-earth export policies. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping in two weeks to discuss these issues.

Despite these challenges, major stock indexes gained ground over the week, with the S&P 500 up 13.3% year-to-date. However, a noticeable decline in the number of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend raises caution among investors about underlying market weaknesses.

The upcoming third-quarter earnings will be closely monitored, especially as the government shutdown halts economic data releases. Companies like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, RTX, and IBM are due to report. The delayed U.S. consumer price index is also expected to provide crucial insights ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on October 28-29.