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China’s economy is on the brink

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China’s gross domestic product expanded by 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, with the same growth rate maintained throughout the entire year.

The announcement from China’s Bureau of Statistics confirmed Premier Li Qiang’s recent disclosure at the World Economic Forum in Davos, making it an unusual pre-release of such a critical data point.

However, when excluding the pandemic years when China’s economy was closed to the world, 2023 marked the slowest annual growth rate since 1990, following the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen Square student movement.

Lockdown hangover

Comparatively, in 2022, China’s economy had grown by 3%, while the initial year of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 saw growth of just 2.2%.

The 5.2% growth rate in 2023 surpassed the government’s official target of around 5%, which came after a year of economic volatility and shifting expectations.

Maintaining a similar growth pace this year may pose a greater challenge, as policymakers have been hesitant to implement substantial stimulus packages.

FILE PHOTO: Containers are seen at the Yangshan Deep Water Port in Shanghai, China, as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak continues, October 19, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song

Growth target

Forecasts for China’s growth rate in the upcoming year among various global investment banks range from 4% to 4.9%. The formal growth target for this year is expected to be announced during an annual legislative session scheduled for March.

In the short term, China faces a lack of apparent growth drivers.

Export demand is weakening in anticipation of a global economic slowdown.

Chinese households, affected by years of pandemic restrictions and receiving no direct financial support from the government, have become cautious spenders due to a weak job market.

Private businesses have delayed new investments, while foreign investors are withdrawing funds from the country.

While China’s leadership is committed to cultivating new growth engines in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy, these initiatives may not be sufficient in the short term to compensate for job creation shortfalls and the overall decline in the real estate sector.

Ahron Young is an award winning journalist who has covered major news events around the world. Ahron is the Managing Editor and Founder of TICKER NEWS.

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Fed cuts rates, signals more potentially ahead

Fed lowers rates amid job market concerns, signalling potential further cuts in upcoming meetings

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Fed lowers rates amid job market concerns, signalling potential further cuts in upcoming meetings

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In Short:
– The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter-point to address job market concerns.
– Officials expect at least two additional rate cuts by year-end amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by a quarter-point, addressing concerns about a weakening job market overshadowing inflation worries.
A majority of officials anticipate at least two additional cuts by year-end during the remaining meetings in October and December.Banner

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted a significant shift in the labour market, highlighting “downside risk” in his statements.

The recent rate cut, supported by 11 of 12 Fed voters, aims to recalibrate an economy facing uncertainties from policy changes and market pressures.

Policy Dynamics

The decision comes amid intense political scrutiny, with President Trump openly criticising Powell’s reluctance to lower rates.

Despite the controversy, Powell asserts that political pressures do not influence Fed operations.

The current benchmark federal-funds rate now sits between 4% and 4.25%, the lowest since 2021, providing some reprieve to consumers and small businesses. Economic forecasts indicate ongoing complexities, including inflation trends and the impact of tariffs on labour dynamics, complicating future policy decisions.


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Fed faces unusual dissent amid leadership uncertainty

Fed’s Powell navigates contentious meeting amid Trump-appointed dissenters as rate cut looms and succession contest heats up

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Fed’s Powell navigates contentious meeting amid Trump-appointed dissenters as rate cut looms and succession contest heats up

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In Short:
– This week’s Federal Reserve meeting faces unusual dissent as Chair Powell approaches his term’s end.
– Analysts predict dissent over expected rate cuts due to political pressures from Trump-appointed officials.
This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is set to be particularly unusual, with Chair Jerome Powell facing significant disagreements over future policy as he approaches the end of his term in May.Tensions began before the meeting when Fed governor Lisa Cook won a court ruling allowing her to attend, despite opposition from President Trump, who is attempting to remove her.

The situation is further complicated by the recent swearing-in of Trump adviser Stephen Miran to the Fed’s board, following a Senate confirmation.

Analysts believe Powell may encounter dissent on an expected quarter-percentage-point rate cut from both Trump-appointed officials and regional Fed presidents concerned about inflation.

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Potential Dissent

Trump has urged significant rate cuts and for the board to challenge Powell’s decisions.

Some analysts predict dissenting votes from Miran and other Trump appointees in favour of larger cuts. Federal Reserve veterans express concerns that political motivations may undermine the institution’s integrity, with indications that greater dissent could become commonplace.


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RBA plans to ban credit card surcharges in Australia

Reserve Bank of Australia plans to ban credit card surcharges despite banks warning of potential higher fees and weaker rewards

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Reserve Bank of Australia plans to ban credit card surcharges despite banks warning of potential higher fees and weaker rewards.

In Short:
– The RBA plans to ban surcharges on debit and credit card transactions, supported by consumer group Choice.
– Major banks oppose the ban, warning it could lead to higher card fees and reduced rewards for credit card users.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) intends to implement a ban on surcharges associated with debit and credit card transactions. Consumer advocacy group Choice endorses this initiative, arguing that it is unjust for users of low-cost debit cards to incur similar fees as credit card holders.Banner

The major banks, however, are opposing this reform. They caution that the removal of surcharges could prompt customers to abandon credit cards due to diminished rewards.

A final decision by the RBA is anticipated by December 2025.


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