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Will the justice department lock him up?

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The long arm of the law is crashing down on the insurrectionists who attacked the Capitol on Jan 6 last year.  The leader of the Proud Boys – the white supremacist group Trump defended in his debate with Joe Biden in 2020 with a special message of support to them: “Stand back sand stand by” – was indicted this month for conspiracy to obstruct Congress.  Four other Proud Boys have already been indicted.  And in the first criminal trial of a rioter on that day, a Texas man was convicted on all counts of carrying a weapon and threatening witnesses to his deeds.

The long arm of the law is now reaching much higher

A court proceeding in California over whether an attorney for President Trump can refuse to share documents with the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol in Washington has revealed the possibility that Trump may face criminal charges for all of his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

John Eastman was an attorney advising Trump.  He developed a legal argument that Vice President Pence could refuse, as the Electoral College votes to award the election to Joe Biden were being counted on that fateful day, to recognize the electoral votes of several states Biden won, preventing Biden from becoming president.  

Trump fully embraced the Eastman arguments – which no reputable constitutional scholars accept – to pressure Pence mercilessly to so act.  Pence refused, concluding that any such attempts to go against the laws governing the counting of the Electoral College votes was “unconstitutional” and “un-American”.  Pence’s refusal to cave to Trump enraged the president, and led the mob, as they rampaged through the Capitol that day, to chant, “Hang Mike Pence!” The Secret Service took Pence deep underground in the Capitol until the rioters were expelled and a semblance of order restored – enough for Pence that night to preside over the joint session of Congress and affirm that Biden was, indeed, the president-elect.

The House Select Committee wants Eastman’s records on his advice, meetings and events leading up to January 6.  Eastman is claiming attorney-client privilege. It is a legitimate claim and worthy of litigation.  The House lawyers argue, however, that attorney-client privilege cannot shield criminal activity.  This counter-argument has been tested and validated over decades of case law.  The court in California will rule on this matter, and its decision will determine whether Eastman’s notes and emails and memos must be turned over to the Select Committee.

To make its case that Eastman is shielding possibly criminal activity by Trump, the House Select Committee filed an extraordinary brief that shows its view that Trump may well have committed crimes in trying to overturn the election, and that this activity – including what Eastman did and counselled – occurred from the day after the election through the insurrection at the Capitol.

The House Committee’s allegations – 221 pages of legal argument and documentary evidence – are stark:

“The evidence detailed above provides, at minimum, a good-faith basis for concluding that President Trump has violated section 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2). The elements of the offense under 1512(c)(2) are: (1) the defendant obstructed, influenced or impeded, or attempted to obstruct, influence or impede, (2) an official proceeding of the United States, and (3) that the defendant did so corruptly.

The counting of the Electoral College votes was an “official proceeding.” The brief goes on:

“The Select Committee also has a good-faith basis for concluding that the President and members of his Campaign engaged in a criminal conspiracy to defraud the United States in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 371. An individual “defrauds” the government for purposes of Section 371 if he “interfere[s] with or obstruct[s] one of its lawful governmental functions by deceit, craft or trickery, or at least by means that are dishonest.”

The evidence supports an inference that President Trump, Plaintiff, and several others entered into an agreement to defraud the United States by interfering with the election certification process, disseminating false information about election fraud, and pressuring state officials to alter state election results and federal officials to assist in that effort.”

The Eastman documents will shed further light on these issues – indeed, they are crucial evidence. We will see if the California court agrees.

The Select Committee will hold public hearings in the coming weeks.  The committee cannot bring any criminal charges.  Its job is to document what happened on January 6 and who was involved in those events and what they did:  to tell the full story of that day.  If the committee concludes that criminal activity associated with these events has occurred, it can refer those matters to the Justice Department for its assessment – and the Justice Department can determine if criminal prosecution is warranted.  (This process is what happened when subpoenaed witnesses, such as Trump associate Steve Bannon, refused to testify before the committee.  The Justice Department convened a grand jury to examine his refusal to testify, and Bannon has been indicted for obstruction of Congress and will go to trial this year.)

If the House Committee ultimately concludes, after all the evidence they have gathered and all the testimony from witnesses, that Trump may have broken the law, and his prosecution should be assessed, it can make such a recommendation to the Justice Department.  Indeed, Rep Adam Schiff, a leading member of the committee, said recently:

“The Justice Department has the obligation to determine if a crime is committed and whether anyone, including the former president, should be prosecuted. That’s the department’s job. They’re not waiting for us to make a referral. That’s not what the Justice Department does.

Now, we may make a referral at the end of our investigation.”

No former president has been criminally prosecuted.  Spiro Agnew, former vice president under Richard Nixon, went to jail on corruption charges that forced his resignation in 1973. Vice President Aaron Burr was not prosecuted for killing Alexander Hamilton in a duel in New Jersey in 1804, but he was later tried for treason in Louisiana, and was acquitted.  

The White House believes it is a live issue.  Press Secretary Jen Psaki last week:

“The former president subverted the Constitution in an attempt to overturn a lawful and fair election. His actions represent a unique and existential threat to our democracy, and the president [Biden] has been clear that these events warrant a full investigation.”

Trump will have none of it. Speaking of himself in the third person, Trump said:

“The Unselect Committee’s sole goal is to try to prevent President Trump, who is leading by large margins in every poll, from running again for president, if I so choose. By so doing they are destroying democracy as we know it. Their lies and Marxist tactics against political opponents will not stop the truth, or the biggest political movement, Make America Great Again/America First, in the history of our Country.”

The Select Committee will complete its work.  It will make findings. If the Select Committee recommends that the Justice Department assess whether Trump engaged in criminal activity to overturn the 2020 presidential election, the Attorney General may well move to begin the process to …  lock him up.

Bruce Wolpe is a Ticker News US political contributor. He’s a Senior Fellow at the US Studies Centre and has worked with Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama's first term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He has also served as the former PM's chief of staff.

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Aden airport closure highlights Saudi-UAE tensions in Yemen

Aden International Airport closes as tensions soar between Saudi Arabia and UAE amid escalating Yemen conflict

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Aden International Airport closes as tensions soar between Saudi Arabia and the UAE amid escalating Yemen conflict

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In Short:
– Aden International Airport closed amid rising Saudi-UAE tensions, stranding passengers and highlighting the Yemen crisis.
– Saudi airstrikes targeted STC positions, escalating the conflict as Saudi Arabia and UAE’s interests increasingly clash.

Yemen’s Aden International Airport closed on Thursday due to rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), stranding many passengers. This shutdown highlights an escalating crisis between the two Gulf nations over control of Yemen’s resource-rich eastern provinces. Military operations backed by Saudi Arabia resulted in multiple fatalities.Air traffic was suspended following new flight restrictions imposed by Yemen’s internationally recognised government, which is supported by Riyadh. Instead of compliance, Yemen’s transport minister, aligned with the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), announced a total shutdown, leaving travellers in difficult situations, especially those needing urgent medical care.

The aviation discord exemplifies a larger divide fracturing the Saudi-led coalition involved in the Yemen conflict. Recent Saudi airstrikes targeted an STC military camp in Al-Khasah, resulting in numerous casualties. Saudi-backed forces initiated a military campaign aimed at reclaiming control over territory occupied by the STC.

Gulf Powers

The situation escalated when the STC seized extensive regions in Hadramout and Al-Mahra provinces. Saudi Arabia publicly condemned the UAE’s activities as a threat to its national security and demanded troop withdrawal. In response, the UAE refuted the claims and prepared to withdraw its forces, although the STC has remained entrenched in its positions.

The current conflict marks a significant public feud between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They have collaborated since 2015 to combat the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, but their diverging interests have increasingly placed them in opposition.

UAE stock markets experienced mixed results on Friday, reflecting the ongoing regional tensions. Dubai’s index rose 1.1 percent, primarily driven by gains in Emaar Development and Emirates NBD Bank. Conversely, Abu Dhabi’s index remained stable, impacted by a downturn in Abu Dhabi National Energy Company.


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Russia claims drone evidence; CIA dismisses allegations

Russia presents alleged drone evidence to US, CIA disputes claims, Ukraine calls accusations a fabrication amid peace talk tensions

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Russia presents alleged drone evidence to the US, CIA disputes claims, Ukraine calls accusations a fabrication amid peace talk tensions

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In Short:
– Russia claims Ukraine targeted Putin’s residence with drones, but the CIA dismisses this as disinformation.
– Ukraine denies allegations, arguing they are fabrications hindering peace talks and lacking evidence.

Russia has provided the United States with purported evidence suggesting Ukraine’s involvement in a drone attack aimed at President Vladimir Putin’s residence. This assertion comes as the CIA and other Western officials have dismissed the claims as disinformation.Admiral Igor Kostyukov, head of Russia’s military intelligence, presented a navigation controller from a downed drone to a U.S. military attache. Russian officials claim that the device’s data indicates the drones targeted Putin’s residence in an attack on December 29, involving 91 drones.

The CIA briefed President Donald Trump that Ukraine did not target Putin or his residence during the incident, asserting that the drones were aimed at a military facility instead. This assessment was communicated to Trump on December 31.

Ukraine has refuted the allegations, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemning them as fabrications meant to justify further attacks and hinder peace discussions. The country’s Center for Countering Disinformation pointed out the lack of evidence, such as air defense activity or drone crash footage.

Diplomatic Ramifications

The situation arose shortly after Trump met with Zelenskyy to discuss potential peace agreements. Trump’s initial anger towards Putin’s claims shifted to skepticism as he later shared opinions that criticized Russia’s role in the peace process.

EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas labelled Russia’s assertions as distractions aimed at hindering diplomatic negotiations. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov implied that the incident might lead Moscow to reconsider its stance in ongoing discussions aimed at resolving the conflict.


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Australian beef industry warns of major export losses under new China tariff

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China slaps 55% tariff on Australian beef as trade and geopolitical tensions rise

China has imposed a 55% tariff on Australian beef imports that exceed quota limits, a move that threatens more than $1 billion in annual trade and has reignited tensions between Canberra and Beijing. The restrictions, effective from January 1 for three years, cap Australia’s beef quota at 205,000 tonnes—below the volume China imported in 2024—prompting industry claims the decision undermines the spirit of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement.

Calm fears

Beef producers warn the impact could be severe, with exports to China potentially falling by as much as one-third compared to 2025 levels. Industry groups say the move advantages rival exporters, with Brazil and Argentina receiving far larger quotas, raising concerns Australia could permanently lose market share in a key global market. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has sought to calm fears, saying Australia is not being singled out and describing the beef sector as the strongest it has ever been.

The tariff decision comes against the backdrop of growing geopolitical strain, days after Australia criticised China’s “Justice Mission 2025” military drills near Taiwan as destabilising. Opposition figures are urging the government to leverage diplomatic ties with President Xi Jinping to ensure Australia is not swept up in broader trade retaliation, as industry calls mount for urgent talks to stabilise relations.


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