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Vic, NSW slip as SA takes the economic lead

Published

11 months ago

on

The CommSec State of the States report has unveiled South Australia as the surprising economic leader among Australia’s states and territories for the first time in the history of this quarterly survey.

The report, which analyses the economic performance of different regions across the country, provides valuable insights into the economic momentum and growth rates of Australia’s diverse regions.

Overall, the economic performances of Australian states and territories continue to be bolstered by robust job markets and a substantial increase in population, even as interest rates are on the rise.

Higher borrowing

However, these economies have faced a slowdown in response to higher borrowing costs and inflationary pressures, with their future trajectories closely tied to the course of inflation amidst rising interest rates.

South Australia clinched the top spot in this quarter’s rankings, surpassing its counterparts for the first time in 14 years of the report’s existence.

The next Australian city to host the Olympics

South Australia excelled in four out of the eight key economic indicators: relative economic growth, relative unemployment, construction work done, and dwelling starts.

Second position

Victoria and New South Wales shared the second position in the rankings, followed by Western Australia in fourth place, and Tasmania in fifth.

The Australian Capital Territory secured the sixth position, while Queensland and the Northern Territory landed in seventh and eighth places, respectively.

When measuring annual growth rates across the eight key indicators, Western Australia emerged as the leader, followed closely by Queensland, Victoria, and New South Wales.

South Australia came in fifth, with the Northern Territory, the ACT, and Tasmania occupying the remaining spots.

Western Australia demonstrated its dominance by leading in annual growth rates across three of the eight indicators, while the Northern Territory led in two indicators. Queensland, South Australia, and the ACT each led in one of the indicators.

Top position

The analysis of this quarter’s results revealed that South Australia’s ascent to the top position was fueled by significant progress in construction-related sectors and overall economic growth. Looking forward, trends in job markets, consumer spending, and housing will continue to be crucial, with Queensland, New South Wales, and Western Australia showing promising economic momentum.

The methodology employed in this report assessed the performance of each state and territory by comparing their economic indicators to decade averages.

This approach allowed for a comprehensive understanding of how each economy was performing relative to what would be considered ‘normal’ in their specific context.

As Australia’s economic landscape continues to evolve, the CommSec State of the States report remains a valuable tool for policymakers, investors, and the public, shedding light on the relative strengths and weaknesses of different regions across the country. With South Australia taking the lead in this quarter’s report, the economic competition among Australia’s states and territories is more dynamic than ever.

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Ahron Young is an award winning journalist who has covered major news events around the world. Ahron is the Managing Editor and Founder of TICKER NEWS.

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U.S. small business confidence hits 3-1/2-year peak

US small business confidence hits 3.5-year high post-election, driven by optimism for economy and hiring plans.

Published

6 hours ago

on

December 11, 2024

By

U.S. small-business confidence reached its highest point in nearly 3-1/2 years in November, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index increased by 8.0 points to 101.7, marking the highest level since June 2021.

This surge followed the recent elections, which saw Donald Trump winning the presidential race and the Republican Party gaining control of Congress.

Small business owners, who typically lean Republican, showed increased confidence, a trend anticipated by economists.

Other sentiment surveys also reported improvements in consumer confidence post-election.

Economic improvement

The percentage of small business owners expecting economic improvement rose significantly, indicating a shift in outlook.

More owners believe now is a good time to expand their business, with expectations for higher sales growth increasing. Concerns about inflation slightly lessened, as fewer owners cited it as their primary issue.

Additionally, the uncertainty index for small businesses dropped, reflecting increased stability in economic expectations.

Despite ongoing labor shortages in various sectors, the number of businesses planning to hire rose to the highest level in a year.

Compensation for employees saw an uptick; 32% of owners reported increases, while a notable percentage plans further raises in the coming months.

 

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Money

Inflation report tests stock rally before Fed meeting

**Inflation report next week could impact stock rally; Fed rate cuts anticipated amid strong job growth and resilient economy.**

Published

2 days ago

on

December 9, 2024

By

An upcoming inflation report will assess the strength of the U.S. stock market rally and influence the Federal Reserve’s rate cut strategy.

The S&P 500 has recorded its third consecutive weekly gain, increasing over 27% year-to-date.

This upward momentum in equities is influenced by expectations of additional Fed interest rate cuts amid a resilient economy.

Friday’s employment report indicated stronger than expected job growth, reinforcing this positive outlook. However, this data is not expected to change the Fed’s rate plans for its upcoming December meeting.

The consumer price index data due on Wednesday may alter this optimistic sentiment if inflation exceeds expectations, posing risks for well-performing stocks.

Experts note that if inflation rates are high, it could create uncertainty for investors before the Fed meeting.

Following the recent jobs report, the probability of the Fed cutting rates has increased, with nearly a 90% chance predicted for a 25 basis point cut.

The consumer price index is expected to rise by 2.7% over the past year.

If CPI results are higher than expected, it might prompt a cautious approach on future cuts, affecting outlooks for 2025.

Additionally, inflation concerns are heightened by the potential introduction of tariffs by President-elect Donald Trump.

Despite these factors, stock prices continue to rise, although there are warning signs of overly optimistic sentiment in the market.

Some analysts maintain a positive view on stocks heading into the year-end, citing a reduction in concerns surrounding the economy and interest rates.

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Money

Stocks on the way to achieve three consecutive years of gains

S&P 500’s strong 2024 raises hopes, but concerns linger over AI sustainability and economic headwinds affecting future gains.

Published

3 days ago

on

December 8, 2024

By

The S&P 500 has risen 28% in 2024, poised for consecutive annual gains of over 20%.

Major banks forecast more modest returns for 2025, projecting the index reaching 6500, a 6.7% rise from approximately 6090.

Barclays has a more optimistic target of 6600, with Bank of America and Deutsche Bank expecting 6666 and 7000, respectively.

President-elect Donald Trump’s policies are seen as potentially beneficial for stocks, though high interest rates and geopolitical issues pose risks.

Investors remain cautious about the sustainability of the rally.

Economic conditions

Upcoming inflation data will be crucial for assessing economic conditions before the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut in December.

Increasingly, small-cap stocks are joining the rally, with the Russell 2000 index nearing record highs.

More than 220 S&P stocks have hit 52-week highs recently, which indicates broader market strength, making it less susceptible to downturns.

The early market gains were largely driven by major tech stocks, which continue to perform well amid various challenges.

Long-term growth expectations, however, appear dim, with forecasts suggesting limited gains over the next decade.

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