Ukraine is grappling with a pressing financial dilemma.
Despite promises of substantial financial and military aid from its primary backers, the United States and the European Union, these commitments have been cast into uncertainty due to internal disagreements in Washington and Brussels.
While political leaders maintain that these aid packages will eventually be approved, the timing is of utmost importance for Ukraine.
The country is confronted with a financial shortfall of over $40 billion this year, only slightly less than the gap observed in 2023.
Approximately $30 billion of this deficit was anticipated to be covered by funding from the U.S. and the EU.
This crucial funding is indispensable for sustaining the government, financing salaries, pensions, and subsidies for the population.
Efforts have been made to address the situation, including the introduction of a windfall tax on banks, reallocation of certain tax revenues, and an increase in domestic borrowing, which is projected to cover budgetary expenditures until February, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance.
Urgency for additional funding
However, these measures are considered insufficient, and the sense of urgency for additional funding is widely shared among Ukraine’s partners.
If foreign aid does not arrive promptly, the government may be compelled to take drastic measures to conserve cash.
Such measures could include delaying salary payments or increasing borrowing from domestic banks and investors.
Ultimately, Ukraine may be pushed into the perilous strategy of printing more money, a path that has led to economic crises in countries like Venezuela.
Ongoing conflict
Ukraine’s financial stability is closely linked to its ability to continue fighting the ongoing conflict.
Russia, with its significantly larger economy, initially felt the pinch of Western sanctions but subsequently rebounded by finding new oil buyers and prioritizing military production.
In contrast, Ukraine’s struggle to maintain economic stability poses a significant challenge when combating a more substantial adversary.
The concerns over Ukraine’s financial stability have had a detrimental effect on its national currency, the hryvnia.
The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the currency have resulted in a net expenditure of $3.6 billion in December, marking the most substantial monthly intervention since the early stages of the war.
