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Ukraine expects Russian offensive this month

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Ukraine expects a possible major Russian offensive this month, but Kyiv has the reserves to hold back Moscow’s forces even though the latest Western military supplies will not all arrive in time

 
Russia could launch the new attack for ‘symbolic’ reasons around the first anniversary of its invasion, but its resources are not ready from a military point of view, Defence minister Oleksii Reznikov told a news conference.

“Despite everything, we expect a possible Russian offensive in February. This is only from the point of view of symbolism; it’s not logical from a military view. Because not all of their resources are ready. But they’re doing it anyway,” he said.

Russian forces have been making incremental advances in the east as Moscow tries to capture the embattled city of Bakhmut and revive its faltering invasion after a string of battlefield setbacks in the second half of last year.

Reznikov said the offensive would likely be launched in the east – where Russia is trying to capture all the heavily-industrialised Donbas region – or the south where it wants to widen its land corridor to the occupied peninsula of Crimea.

He estimated that Russia had 12,000 troops in Belarusian military bases, a number that would not be enough to launch a significant attack from Belarus into Ukraine’s north, reopening a new front.

The United States and other Western governments have pledged billions of dollars in new military assistance including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to help Ukraine withstand a new attack as well as to help Kyiv launch a counteroffensive.

“Not all of the Western weaponry will arrive in time. But we are ready. We have created our resources and reserves, which we are able to deploy and with which we are able to hold back the attack,” Reznikov said.

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China encircles Taiwan with military drills, sparking global concern

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Beijing’s latest show of force sends a stern warning to Taiwan, as the US urges restraint amid escalating tensions.

China deployed planes and ships to encircle Taiwan on Monday in military drills that Beijing described as a “stern warning” to what it called “separatist” forces on the island.

The exercises, dubbed Joint Sword-2024B, mark China’s fourth large-scale war game targeting Taiwan in the past two years.

Beijing, which has not ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control, conducted these drills in the north, south, and east of Taiwan, focusing on sea-air combat readiness and blockading key ports.

Practicing an assault

The Chinese military’s Eastern Theater Command said the drills also included practicing an assault on maritime and ground targets, with China’s coast guard conducting “inspections” around the island.

Taiwan condemned the exercises as “irrational and provocative,” deploying its own forces in response. The Taiwanese defence ministry stated it is fully prepared to counter any threat to its sovereignty.

The United States criticised China’s actions as “unwarranted” and warned of the risk of escalation, calling on Beijing to act with restraint. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, who has taken a firmer stance on Taiwan’s sovereignty than his predecessor, convened a high-level security meeting to address the drills, describing them as inconsistent with international law.

Tensions between China and Taiwan continue to rise, with China ramping up its military activity around the island in recent years.

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Europe’s crossroads: confronting electoral upheaval and rising global tensions

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Experts discuss the EU’s challenges and opportunities ahead

Euro Bloch is a comprehensive program designed to highlight the breadth of topics and issues within the EU political landscape. It offers insightful analysis within the evolving framework of relations between the European Union and Australia/Asia-Pacific region.

Hosted by Ticker EU correspondent, Natanael Bloch.

In this episode, Natanael interviews Professor Bruno Mascitelli about the future of the European Union following the June elections. With Ursula von der Leyen re-elected as President of the European Commission, Mascitelli discusses the challenges she may face in her second term and the growing influence of far-right and populist parties in the EU Parliament.

As Hungary takes over the Presidency of the Council of the EU, concerns about its impact arise. The episode also considers the EU’s potential diplomatic role amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and identifies crucial policy areas where the EU must strengthen its stance to compete globally.

 

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Money

China has pledged to “significantly increase” debt to jumpstart its economy

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Finance Minister Lan Foan announced plans to help local governments tackle debt, support low-income households, and boost the property market.

Investors have been urging such steps as China faces deflationary pressures and a sharp property market downturn.

However, no figure was provided for the stimulus package, leaving markets anxious about the strength and duration of the recovery effort.

Economists warn that this lack of clarity may prolong uncertainty until China’s legislature approves extra debt measures.

Concerns are rising that China may fall short of its 5% growth target, signalling deeper structural challenges ahead.

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