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U.S. pushes Latin American dominance

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What lies ahead for Latin America after the Venezuela raid?

Nicolas Forsans, University of Essex

The Trump administration has justified the recent capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro as a law enforcement operation to dismantle a “narco‑state”. It also claimed it would break Venezuela’s ties to China, Russia and Iran, and put the world’s largest known oil reserves back under US‑friendly control.

This mix of counter‑narcotics, great power rivalry and energy security had already been elevated to a central priority by the administration in its national security strategy. Published in late 2025, the document announced a pledge to “reassert and enforce American preeminence in the western hemisphere” and deny “strategically vital assets” to rival powers.

Donald Trump has referred to this hemispheric project as the “Donroe doctrine”, casting it as a revival of the Monroe doctrine policy of the 19th century through which the US sought to stop European powers from meddling in the Americas. He seems to be seeking to tighten the US grip on Latin America by rewarding loyal governments and punishing defiant ones.

If Venezuela is the first test case of the Donroe doctrine, several other Latin American countries now sit squarely in Washington’s crosshairs. The most immediate target is Cuba, which the US has opposed since 1959 when communist revolutionary Fidel Castro overthrew a US-backed regime there.

Trump and his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, have openly hinted that Cuba could be Washington’s next target. They have described Cuba as “ready to fall” after the loss of Venezuelan oil and have boasted that there is no need for direct intervention because economic collapse will finish the job.

Cuba is enduring its worst crisis since 1959. Blackouts now regularly last up to 20 hours, real wages are collapsing and roughly 1 million Cubans have fled the country since 2021. This is all happening as Venezuelan crude oil is being redirected under US control.

For over two decades, Venezuela has provided Cuba with fuel and financing in exchange for doctors, teachers and security personnel – 32 of whom were killed in the US capture of Maduro, according to the Cuban government. Strangling Cuba’s remaining lifelines may well be enough to topple the government there without US forces needing to fire a single shot.

It is possible that Mexico will also soon come under fire. Mexico has quietly become Cuba’s main oil supplier, shipping roughly 12,000 barrels per day in 2025 to account for about 44% of the island’s crude imports. This is unlikely to please the Trump administration, which has recently renewed its threats to “do something” about Mexican drug cartels.

The raid in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, took six months of meticulous planning and required an extraordinary amount of resources. So it is unrealistic to expect similar raids on other Latin American countries. However, targeted military strikes cannot be excluded.

Speaking on Fox News’s “Hannity” show on January 8, Trump said: “We are going to start now hitting land with regard to the cartels. The cartels are running Mexico.” He did not provide further details about the plans.

Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is trying to construct protective buffers. She has combined condemnation of the raid on Caracas with intense cooperation with the US on migration and security. This includes a deal for Mexico’s navy to intercept suspected drug-running boats near its coastline before US forces do.

But as part of a strategy that pushes US dominance of Latin America, Trump has already floated classifying Mexico’s cartels as terrorist organisations and the fentanyl they traffic across the border as a weapon of mass destruction. These are legal framings that could be used to justify strikes on Mexican soil in the name of counter-narcotics in the near future.

Trump’s other targets

Colombia, historically Washington’s closest military ally in South America, has flipped from “pillar” to possible target. The country’s president, Gustavo Petro, has been one of the loudest critics of the Venezuela raid. He called it an “abhorrent violation” of Latin American sovereignty committed by “enslavers”, adding that it constituted a “spectacle of death” comparable to Nazi Germany’s 1937 carpet bombing of Guernica in Spain.

Trump, who imposed sanctions on Petro and his family in October, responded by labelling the Colombian president a “sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States”. He then mused that a Venezuela‑style operation in Colombia “sounds good to me” before a hastily arranged phone call and White House invitation dialled back the immediate threat.

How long the conciliation between the two men lasts remains to be seen. Colombia has entered a heated presidential campaign season in which Trump’s remarks are already being read as an attempt to tilt the race, much as his interventions shaped recent contests in Argentina and Honduras.

Further down the hierarchy, Nicaragua’s government will also have watched events unfold in Venezuela with terror. Long treated in Washington as part of a trilogy of dictatorships with Cuba and Venezuela, Nicaragua features in US indictments against Maduro as a transit point for cocaine flights. Nicaragua was also recently designated by the US as a key drug‑transit country.

The unusually cautious statement on the Venezuela raid by Nicaraguan presidential couple Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, as well as the rapid reinforcement of the presidential compound in the capital Managua, suggest a regime that knows it could be next in line should Trump choose to extend his “narco‑terrorism” narrative.

Trump appears to be turning longstanding US concerns – drugs, migration and interference by other major powers – into a flexible toolbox for coercion in Latin America. Countries that defy Washington or host its rivals risk being framed as security threats, stripped of economic lifelines and, possibly, targeted militarily.

Those that keep their heads down may avoid immediate punishment. But this comes at the price of treating hemispheric dominance as a fact of life rather than a doctrine to be resisted.The Conversation

Nicolas Forsans, Professor of Management and Co-director of the Centre for Latin American & Caribbean Studies, University of Essex

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Right turn ahead. But where are the Liberals really going?

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The Liberal Party’s decision to elevate Angus Taylor marks more than a routine leadership change.

It signals a strategic wager: that repositioning toward the right can arrest electoral decline, rebuild identity, and reconnect with voters who feel politically homeless.

For many Australians, this shift will feel both familiar and uncertain.

Familiar, because the Liberal Party has historically balanced economic liberalism with selective appeals to conservative instincts. Uncertain, because the political environment confronting Taylor is vastly different from the one navigated by John Howard or Tony Abbott. Voters are more fragmented. Trust in institutions is more fragile. Cost-of-living pressures dominate kitchen-table conversations. And the party itself is divided over what it stands for.

At its core, Taylor’s leadership represents the conservative wing’s argument that clarity beats ambiguity.

After the Coalition’s bruising defeats and what many supporters viewed as an uninspiring performance under Peter Dutton, conservatives have effectively declared: this is the direction, and this is the test. If a more explicitly right-leaning Liberal leader cannot regain ground, deeper structural questions about the party’s future become unavoidable.

History is calling

Yet history offers a cautionary lesson.

The most electorally successful Liberal eras were rarely defined by ideological purity. Howard, often remembered for cultural conservatism and strong borders rhetoric, governed primarily through economic management, fiscal discipline, and structural reform. He put his Prime Ministership on the line over and over again. His political success came from persuading Labor voters that the Liberals were the safer custodians of prosperity, not from positioning the party at the ideological edges.

Howard’s battlers were people who had been left behind by Labor’s transformative years.

Importantly, political rhetoric and governing reality have never perfectly aligned.

Howard’s pre-1996 scepticism about aspects of globalisation did not prevent Australia’s continued embrace of foreign investment and economic integration. Abbott’s emphasis on border control did not redefine the broader economic consensus. Governments, regardless of campaign tone, tend to bend toward economic necessity.

Three year election cycles push candidates towards making promises they can’t keep, and the last election became a spending spree to essentially buy votes. But who pays the bill?

That question remains the defining constraint today.

In politics, either they’re in crisis, or you’re in crisis. The art is to create the circumstances where they’re tearing themselves apart.

We want everything

Across advanced Western economies, rising social expenditure, ageing populations, and productivity challenges are placing immense pressure on public finances. Migration, taxation, and growth are no longer abstract policy debates; they are mathematical realities. Governments require revenue. Economies require expansion. Voters demand services, and they want to use their Medicare card, not their credit card.

Australia’s paradox is particularly striking.

Despite extraordinary natural resource wealth, Australians shoulder relatively high income taxes to sustain public services expected of a modern developed nation. Comparisons with low-tax resource states overlook critical differences in governance models, demographics, and institutional structures. Still, the underlying voter frustration is real: people feel they are paying more while their living standards feel squeezed.

Along comes Taylor

This is where Taylor’s leadership will be tested most severely.

Not on slogans about ideology, but on economic credibility. He is, after all, a Rhodes Scholar.

For voters in their 30s and 40s, professionals, small business owners, tradespeople, families balancing mortgages and school fees, politics is increasingly filtered through lived experience. Grocery bills. Power prices. Housing affordability. Business viability. Opportunity. Risk.

These voters are rarely ideological warriors.

They are pragmatic. They value free enterprise and economic stability. They believe in personal responsibility but also expect functioning healthcare, infrastructure, and social safety nets. They are patriotic without being insular. Globally minded without being detached from local concerns.

Many of them feel underrepresented.

Labor often feels culturally distant. The Liberals often feel strategically confused. The Teals attract slices of urban discontent but do not offer a comprehensive alternative. Minor parties channel protest but rarely deliver governing pathways.

While the Greens and One Nation recognise the problems, can they offer solutions? 

The rise of parties like One Nation reflects less a wholesale ideological shift than a hunger for perceived conviction. Voters may not agree with every position, but they respond to parties that firmly stand for something.

Liberal question

The Liberal Party’s mission is different to One Nation’s. It must stand for something credible, not merely something loud. Howard, Thatcher and Regan could all stand in the loudest room, being shouted at and abused, and calmly provided an answer.

If Taylor’s leadership becomes defined primarily by trying to win back One Nation votes, the party risks reinforcing perceptions that it is speaking to narrower constituencies rather than the economic anxieties of the mainstream.

Australians  are fed up, but voters usually make a decision on “the best of a bad bunch”. So if Taylor anchors his agenda in growth, opportunity, tax reform, business confidence, and stable government, the party may rediscover its traditional electoral advantage. Albanese’s government to his credit has been without the dramas of the Rudd/Gillard or Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison years. When Labor looks stable, the conservatives have a problem.

The uncomfortable reality is this:

Governments are ultimately judged on economic outcomes and house prices. While the media seems to want house prices to fall, the millions of people who own houses want prices to go up. Their house is their number one asset, so why wouldn’t they?

Australians are living through a period of persistent financial unease. Inflationary pressures, housing stress, and business closures have created a pervasive sense that the system is under strain. Voters do not need theoretical debates about ideology. They want explanations that match what their eyes can see.

Here are some questions to answer:

Why does migration feel disconnected from personal economic improvement?

Why do higher taxes not translate into improved services?

Why do energy transitions cost so much yet we are extending the life of coal power plants?

Why do I pay for healthcare yet my private health insurance keeps going up?

Why has Australia spent so much money on defence projects that never seem to materialise?

These are not fringe questions. They are mainstream concerns about the federal government.

The opportunity for Taylor is standing right there. Just provide an answer to those questions.

A centre-right leader who articulates a coherent economic narrative, one that acknowledges voter frustrations without retreating into simplistic solutions, could find receptive audiences across metropolitan and regional Australia alike.

The bigger problem

But leadership alone cannot solve structural problems.

The Liberal Party must also confront its internal identity crisis. A party caught between traditional conservatives, economic liberals, and socially moderate urban voters cannot thrive without reconciling competing visions. Electoral recovery requires not just a new leader, but a renewed sense of purpose.

This is nothing new. Jeff Kennett papered over the cracks of the Victorian Liberals, and John Howard dealt with one disaster after another from within his own party. But that’s where leadership matters most.

Australia, like many Western democracies, is searching for stability in an era of volatility.

Global models offer limited guidance. The UK is in a worse situation than Australia, and the Tories look set to be wiped off the map. Economic headwinds are widespread. Political polarisation is deepening. The appetite for strong leadership is growing, yet so is scepticism toward populism.

Which raises the central question:

Can Angus Taylor provide the kind of leadership that speaks to pragmatic, economically focused Australians who feel increasingly politically adrift? Can he put Australia back on the right course – one that relies on organic growth rather than artificial growth spurred by high government spending?

The answer will not be found in ideology alone.

It will be found in whether the Liberal Party can once again convince voters that it understands their lives, their pressures, and their aspirations, wherever they live, and has a credible plan to improve them.

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Should the Winter Olympics be behind a paywall?

Exploring Olympic access challenges: rising sports rights, paywalls, and the impact on viewers with Darren Woolley.

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Exploring Olympic access challenges: rising sports rights, paywalls, and the impact on viewers with Darren Woolley.


The Winter Olympics are a global sporting spectacle, but should access to these events come at a cost? Rising sports rights and paywalls have left many viewers wondering how far is too far.

Darren Woolley from TrinityP3 joins Ticker to discuss the implications for fans and the broadcasting landscape.

We explore the current broadcasting regulations, the impact of paywalls on viewers, and the role of Anti-Siphoning laws in protecting free access to major events. Darren shares insights into how these policies affect the public and what changes could make Olympic coverage more accessible.

From commercial pressures to public expectations, the conversation delves into the balance between profit and access. Darren also highlights challenges in advocating for fair broadcasting practices and the conversations happening with regulators like the Australian Communications and Media Authority.

Subscribe to never miss an episode of Ticker – https://www.youtube.com/@weareticker

#WinterOlympics #SportsBroadcasting #PaywallDebate #AntiSiphoning #OlympicAccess #TickerTalks #SportsRights #DarrenWoolley


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Lunar Gateway faces delays and funding debate amid Artemis ambitions

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What’s the point of a space station around the Moon?

Berna Akcali Gur, Queen Mary University of London

The Lunar Gateway is planned space station that will orbit the Moon. It is part of the Nasa‑led Artemis programme. Artemis aims to return humans to the Moon, establishing a sustainable presence there for scientific and commercial purposes, and eventually reach Mars.

However, the modular space station now faces delays, cost concerns and potential US funding cuts. This raises a fundamental question: is an orbiting space station necessary to achieve lunar objectives, including scientific ones?

The president’s proposed 2026 budget for Nasa sought to cancel Gateway. Ultimately, push back from within the Senate led to continued funding for the lunar outpost. But debate continues among policymakers as to its value and necessity within the Artemis programme.

Cancelling Gateway would also raise deeper questions about the future of US commitment to international cooperation within Artemis. It would therefore risk eroding US influence over global partnerships that will define the future of deep space exploration.

Gateway was designed to support these ambitions by acting as a staging point for crewed and robotic missions (such as lunar rovers), as a platform for scientific research and as a testbed for technologies crucial to landing humans on Mars.

It is a multinational endeavour. Nasa is joined by four international partners, the Canadian Space Agency, the European Space Agency (Esa), the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and the United Arab Emirates’ Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre.

Schematic of the Lunar Gateway.
The Lunar Gateway.
Nasa

Most components contributed by these partners have already been produced and delivered to the US for integration and testing. But the project has been beset by rising costs and persistent debates over its value.

If cancelled, the US abandonment of the most multinational component of the Artemis programme, at a time when trust in such alliances is under unprecedented strain, could be far reaching.

It will be assembled module by module, with each partner contributing components and with the possibility of additional partners joining over time.

Strategic aims

Gateway reflects a broader strategic aim of Artemis, to pursue lunar exploration through partnerships with industry and other nations, helping spread the financial cost – rather than as a sole US venture. This is particularly important amid intensifying competition – primarily with China.

China and Russia are pursuing their own multinational lunar project, a surface base called the International Lunar Research Station. Gateway could act as an important counterweight, helping reinforce US leadership at the Moon.

In its quarter-century of operation, the ISS has hosted more than 290 people from 26 countries, alongside its five international partners, including Russia. More than 4,000 experiments have been conducted in this unique laboratory.

In 2030, the ISS is due to be succeeded by separate private and national space stations in low Earth orbit. As such, Lunar Gateway could repeat the strategic, stabilising role among different nations that the ISS has played for decades.

However, it is essential to examine carefully whether Gateway’s strategic value is truly matched by its operational and financial feasibility.

It could be argued that the rest of the Artemis programme is not dependant on the lunar space station, making its rationales increasingly difficult to defend.

Some critics focus on technical issues, others say the Gateway’s original purpose has faded, while others argue that lunar missions can proceed without an orbital outpost.

Sustainable exploration

Supporters counter that the Lunar Gateway offers a critical platform for testing technology in deep space, enabling sustainable lunar exploration, fostering international cooperation and laying the groundwork for a long term human presence and economy at the Moon. The debate now centres on whether there are more effective ways to achieve these goals.

Despite uncertainties, commercial and national partners remain dedicated to delivering their commitments. Esa is supplying the International Habitation Module (IHAB) alongside refuelling and communications systems. Canada is building Gateway’s robotic arm, Canadarm3, the UAE is producing an airlock module and Japan is contributing life support systems and habitation components.

Gateway’s Halo module at a facility in Arizona operated by aerospace company Northrop Grumman.
Nasa / Josh Valcarcel

US company Northrop Grumman is responsible for developing the Habitat and Logistics Outpost (Halo), and American firm Maxar is to build the power and propulsion element (PPE). A substantial portion of this hardware has already been delivered and is undergoing integration and testing.

If the Gateway project ends, the most responsible path forward to avoid discouraging future contributors to Artemis projects would be to establish a clear plan to repurpose the hardware for other missions.

Cancellation without such a strategy risks creating a vacuum that rival coalitions, could exploit. But it could also open the door to new alternatives, potentially including one led by Esa.

Esa has reaffirmed its commitment to Gateway even if the US ultimately reconsiders its own role. For emerging space nations, access to such an outpost would help develop their capabilities in exploration. That access translates directly into geopolitical influence.

Space endeavours are expensive, risky and often difficult to justify to the public. Yet sustainable exploration beyond Earth’s orbit will require a long-term, collaborative approach rather than a series of isolated missions.

If the Gateway no longer makes technical or operational sense for the US, its benefits could still be achieved through another project.

This could be located on the lunar surface, integrated into a Mars mission or could take an entirely new form. But if the US dismisses Gateway’s value as a long term outpost without ensuring that its broader benefits are preserved, it risks missing an opportunity that will shape its long term influence in international trust, leadership and the future shape of space cooperation.The Conversation

Berna Akcali Gur, Lecturer in Outer Space Law, Queen Mary University of London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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