Money

The “goldilocks” economy is hitting stock portfolios

Published

2 years ago

September 11, 2023

In recent weeks, the elusive “Goldilocks economy” has made a return to the financial spotlight, leaving investors curious about its implications for their stock portfolios.

This term, coined decades ago, characterizes an ideal economic scenario – one that’s neither too hot nor too cold but just right. It aims to strike the perfect balance between growth and inflation to keep the bears of economic downturn at bay.

However, this renewed optimism has proven short-lived as stocks have struggled throughout the month of August. The S&P 500’s disappointing performance in August marked its worst month since February, raising questions about the validity of the Goldilocks narrative.

Bearing market

The return of bearish sentiment can be attributed, in part, to market psychology. In 1992, Salomon Brothers’ David Shulman defined a Goldilocks economy as one with 4% annualized growth and 3.2% year-over-year inflation. While we’re not quite there, recent economic indicators suggest we’re closer to this Goldilocks scenario than initially thought.

Earlier in the year, pessimism prevailed with expectations of a looming recession, driven by fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes and various global concerns. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that rate hikes could lead to economic pain, with sticky inflation necessitating higher unemployment and potentially a recession.

Inflation dropping

However, recent data paints a different picture. Inflation has steadily decreased from its peak in June 2022, while GDP has continued to grow at 2.5%, surpassing most expectations. Job growth remains steady, unemployment rates are down, and the labor participation rate is up – all positive indicators.

This aligns with the view that there is no recession on the horizon, but rather modest, consistent growth with inflation stabilizing, creating a Goldilocks-like environment. The stock market has quietly thrived in this scenario, despite the persistent bearish sentiment.

Nonetheless, the fact that we’re once again discussing a Goldilocks economy ushers in a new psychological phase in this 11-month-old bull market. After being wrong for so long, it’s easy for investors to be jolted back to disbelief and panic when faced with any hint of risk.

Money

Australia’s inflation report and Nvidia earnings impact explained

Australia’s inflation report sparks market shifts, influencing interest rates, the Aussie dollar, and investor sentiment amid Nvidia’s earnings.

Published

3 days ago

February 26, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Australia’s inflation report sparks market shifts, influencing interest rates, the Aussie dollar, and investor sentiment amid Nvidia’s earnings.

Australia’s latest inflation report is creating waves across the market, with questions about interest rates, the strong performance of the Aussie dollar, and the uneven nature of the stock market rally. Investors are watching closely as changes in carry trade risks this month add another layer of complexity.

David Scutt from StoneX discusses what these shifts mean for trading strategies and the broader economic outlook. He provides insight into how underlying factors are shaping investor confidence and market dynamics.

On the tech side, Nvidia’s upcoming earnings are expected to influence AI development and the broader tech sector. Coupled with trends in SaaS and bitcoin price action, these movements are signalling how investor sentiment is evolving in a fast-changing landscape.

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#AustraliaEconomy #InflationReport #AussieDollar #NvidiaEarnings #AIInvesting #StockMarketNews #BitcoinTrends #SaaSInsights

Money

U.S. stocks rally as AMD, Home Depot, and AI software lead gains

U.S. equities rose as AI disruption fears eased, with Home Depot, AMD, and DocuSign driving tech stock gains.

Published

4 days ago

February 25, 2026

Harvey Vargas

U.S. equities rose as AI disruption fears eased, with Home Depot, AMD, and DocuSign driving tech stock gains.

U.S. tech stocks surged as investors’ fears over AI disruption eased. Advanced Micro Devices jumped 9% after Meta announced a multiyear deal to deploy AMD’s graphics processing units for AI data centres. The move highlights growing corporate confidence in AI infrastructure investments.

DocuSign also rose 3% following Anthropic’s confirmation that Claude Cowork can integrate with DocuSign, Google Drive, and Gmail, signalling stronger adoption of AI tools across industries.

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF climbed 2% despite remaining over 30% below its 52-week high, showing tech stocks are recovering but still have room to run.

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Money

Stocks tumble amid AI concerns and Trump tariff update

Dow drops 800+ points as AI and trade worries hit tech and retail stocks; bonds rise amid market volatility.

Published

5 days ago

February 24, 2026

Harvey Vargas

Dow drops 800+ points as AI and trade worries hit tech and retail stocks; bonds rise amid market volatility.

Stocks plunged sharply as concerns over artificial intelligence and trade tensions rattled investors, sending the Dow down more than 800 points. Heavyweights like American Express, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan were key contributors to the drop.

Software companies were hit particularly hard after a report suggested AI could impact economic growth, triggering further losses across tech shares.

Trade-sensitive retailers including American Eagle Outfitters, Ralph Lauren, and Yeti Holdings also faced setbacks as market uncertainty spiked. Bonds, meanwhile, rallied as investors sought safety in a volatile market.

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